据能源之声3月29日消息，顶级金融顾问机构伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师预计，液化天然气(LNG)市场将趋紧，因为有限的供应增长将满足强劲的需求，尤其是来自亚洲的需求，这可能推高价格。
伯恩斯坦表示：“尽管经历了2020年的动荡，但去年液化天然气需求增长是积极的，这凸显了该行业的韧性。鉴于供应增长有限，再加上强劲的经济复苏，我们预计未来3年市场将趋紧，这将进一步推动亚洲的液化天然气需求。”
“需求增长主要来自亚洲和中东，而其他地区的进口量则持平或下降。长期来看，由于天然气驱动的政策支持能源结构中更高的天然气渗透率，我们预计非经合组织亚洲液化天然气市场(印度、马来西亚、巴基斯坦和泰国)的消费量将继续增长。”
尽管受全球疫情影响，但2020年全球LNG需求同比增长1%至3.59亿吨。在此期间，亚洲液化天然气进口增长了3.5%，而欧洲进口下降了4%。
伯恩斯坦预计，2021年全球需求将增长6%，因为亚洲市场继续推动煤炭向天然气转换的需求，因为它们的能源结构正在脱碳。受经济复苏、煤转气政策和欧洲市场天然气供应下降的推动，2021年LNG需求预计将增长约2000万吨，这将促进LNG进口。
2020/21年LNG产能增加将达到3000万吨/年，可能足以满足今年的需求增长，但伯恩斯坦预计，由于缺乏新项目，未来市场将趋紧。尽管卡塔尔已经宣布，将在2021年最终批准世界上最大的LNG扩张项目，但该项目要到本世纪20年代中后期才会投产。到本世纪20年代中后期，卡塔尔的LNG产能将从7700万吨/年扩大到1.26亿吨/年。
伯恩斯坦表示：“虽然这是一个巨大的增长，但未来三年的供应将是有限的。在未来三年，每年的供应增长将不超过1000万吨/年，在需求历史上以6-7%的复合年增长率增长的市场中，这大约是3%的增长。因此，我们预计未来市场将趋紧。”
“这将会导致未来几年LNG现货价格上涨，直到2020年代中期出现下一个液化天然气过剩时期。我们在LNG领域的首选是钱尼尔、伍德赛德、Oil Search、桑托斯、Inpex和壳牌。”
裘寅 编译自 能源之声
原文如下：
Strong Asian LNG demand set to tighten mid-term market
Analysts at Bernstein see tighter liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets ahead as limited supply growth meets strong demand, particularly from Asia, which could push prices higher.
“Despite the turmoil of 2020, LNG demand growth was positive last year which highlights the resilience of the industry. We see a tighter market ahead over the next three years given limited supply growth, coupled with a strong economic recovery, which will further drive LNG demand in Asia,” the investment research house said in its latest note.
“Demand growth came primarily from Asia and Middle East, while other regions experienced flat or declining imports. Longer term, we expect consumption will continue to grow for non-OECD Asian LNG markets of China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand due to gas-driven policies that support higher gas penetration within the energy mix,” said Bernstein.
Global LNG demand expanded by 1% year-on-year to 359 millon tonnes in 2020, despite the COVID pandemic. Asian LNG imports increased by 3.5% over the period, while European imports fell 4%.
Bernstein expects 6% global demand expansion in 2021, as Asian markets continue to drive demand on coal to gas switching, as they decarbonise their energy mix. LNG demand in 2021 is estimated to expand by around 20 millon tonnes per year (mtpy) driven by economic recovery, coal to gas switching policies and decline in gas supply in European markets which will boost LNG imports.
With around 30 mtpy of LNG capacity coming online in 2020/21 there may just be enough to meet demand growth this year, however Bernstein is predicting a tighter market ahead given a lack of new projects. Although Qatar has announced final investment approval on the world’s largest LNG expansion in 2021, this will not come onstream until the mid to late 2020s. Qatar is expanding its LNG capacity from 77 mtpy to 126 mtpy by mid-late 2020s.
“While this is a large increase, supply over the next three years will be limited. Annual supply growth will be no more than 10 mtpy over the next three years, which is circa 3% growth in a market where demand has historically grown at 6-7% CAGR. As such we expect a tighter market ahead,” said Bernstein.
“This should lead to higher LNG spot pricing in the next few years before the next glut of LNG emerges in the mid-2020s. Our top picks in LNG are Cheniere, Woodside, Oil Search, Santos, Inpex and Shell,” added the research firm.
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