据4月1日CNBC报道，欧佩克+将决定下一阶段的石油生产政策。欧佩克+目前每天减产700多万桶，试图支撑油价，减少供应过剩。该组织主要成员沙特阿拉伯已经自愿在每日减产的基础上再减产100万桶。
这次会议是在苏伊士运河重新开放交通后不久召开的，随着新冠肺炎疫情继续在全球蔓延，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)下令该国第三次进入国家一级防范措施，以减轻医院的部分压力。
持续疫情危机继续给需求前景蒙上阴影，分析师预计这将使特阿拉伯再次对全球经济复苏持谨慎态度。
欧亚集团分析师表示,欧佩克+会议最有可能的结果是4月保持产量不变,沙特阿拉伯继续保留其额外的100万桶的减产——尽管这个额外减产的规模可能会有所减少。
2月全球石油市场“出现了相当大的波动”，抛售导致布伦特原油期货价格从每桶70美元跌至62美元，然后在最近几天稳定在每桶64美元左右。
欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)分析师在周三发布的一份研究报告中表示：“苏伊士运河事件可能帮助了许多产油国，因为它阻止了油价进一步下跌。不过，可持续的经济复苏是否能证明OPEC+每个月都将遵循一个强劲的减量周期，这一点还很不清楚。沙特阿拉伯对全球经济复苏的谨慎在很多方面都是有道理的。”
周四上午，国际基准布伦特原油期货价格报每桶63.81美元，上涨约1.7%，美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格报每桶60.33美元，上涨近2%。
在会议之前，欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴尔金多强调，由于疫情造成的持续不确定性和脆弱性，需要“保持非常谨慎”。
同样，沙特此前曾鼓励欧佩克+产油国在生产政策上保持“极其谨慎”的态度，警告称，在寻求确保石油市场全面复苏之际，不要太过自信。
与此同时，非欧佩克成员国俄罗斯一直在寻求欧佩克推进石油供应增加。消息人士投露，周四会议上的石油产量增幅不会超过50万桶。
能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍姆(Jennifer Granholm)周四通过推特(Twitter)表示，她与沙特阿拉伯能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子通了话，重申了国际合作的重要性，以确保消费者获得负担得起和可靠的能源。
2020年，欧佩克+最初同意创纪录地将石油日产量削减970万桶，随后将减产幅度降低至770万桶，最终从1月份开始将减产规模削减至720万桶。
从2月初到3月，沙特阿拉伯已经削减了100万美元的石油储备，不过这些措施将到期，除非4月1日的会议宣布了进一步的措施。
王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC
原文如下：
OPEC+ to decide on oil production policy as demand concerns persist
A group consisting of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers on Thursday will meet to decide on the next phase of output policy.
OPEC and non-OPEC partners, a group sometimes referred to as OPEC+, are scheduled to hold a virtual meeting from 1 p.m. London time.
The OPEC+ alliance is currently cutting by just over 7 million barrels per day in an attempt to prop up prices and reduce oversupply. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has voluntarily added an additional 1 million barrels per day to those cuts.
The meeting comes shortly after the Suez Canal reopened to traffic and as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide, with French President Emmanuel Macron ordering the country into its third national lockdown to alleviate some of the pressure on hospitals.
The ongoing coronavirus crisis continues to cloud the demand outlook and analysts expect this to reaffirm Saudi Arabia’s caution about the global economic recovery.
Analysts at Eurasia Group said the most likely outcome for the OPEC+ meeting is for the group to keep production unchanged from April and for Saudi Arabia to continue to withhold its additional 1 million barrels per day — although it may taper this slightly by 100,000 barrels “to signal its willingness to adjust.”
They noted that the last month in global oil markets “featured a significant level of volatility” and a sell-off that brought Brent crude futures down to $62 a barrel from $70, before stabilizing around $64 in recent days.
“The Suez Canal incident probably helped many oil producers, as it prevented a further slide in prices,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note published Wednesday.
“once again, it is far from clear that a sustainable recovery would justify a strong cycle of OPEC+ tapering to be followed each month. Saudi Arabia’s caution about the global economic recovery was in many respects warranted,” they added.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.81 a barrel on Thursday morning, around 1.7% higher, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $60.33, up almost 2%.
Ahead of the meeting, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo stressed the need “to remain very cautious” as a result of ongoing uncertainties and fragility caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Similarly, Saudi Arabia has previously encouraged allied partners to remain “extremely cautious” on production policy, warning the group against complacency as it seeks to ensure a full oil market recovery.
Non-OPEC leader Russia, meanwhile, has sought for the group to push ahead with a supply increase.
Two unnamed OPEC+ sources told Reuters that an increase in oil production at Thursday’s meeting would not exceed 0.5 million barrels. CNBC was not able to independently verify these sources.
U.S.-Saudi call
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said via Twitter on Thursday that she spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to reaffirm “the importance of international cooperation to ensure affordable and reliable sources of energy for consumers.”
It was thought to be the first call to Riyadh from a U.S. official ahead of an OPEC meeting since President Joe Biden took office.
OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January.
Saudi Arabia has since taken on cuts of 1 million from the beginning of February through March, although these are due to expire unless further measures are announced on April 1.
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