据烃加工网站3月30日报道 在美国汽油销量首次大幅下滑一周年之际，美国的汽油销量首次进入正增长区间，这主要由COVID引发的国内订单所导致。然而，根据IHS Markit 提供的石油价格信息服务（OPIS）的最新数据，需求仍然远远落后于新冠疫情前的水平。
根据OPIS Demand的每周调查，截至2021年3月20日的一周内，美国同店汽油销量（加仑）比2020年高出10.1%。OPIS Demand是一项对全国25000多个加油站的调查。尽管如此，同店汽油销量仍比新冠疫情前的水平低16%。
IHS Markit的OPIS零售燃料执行董事Brian Norris表示：”从2020年3月起，燃料需求的同比增长对于经济复苏和美国人民开始恢复正常生活来说无疑是一个令人欢迎的消息，但真正的复苏措施将是恢复到疫情前的水平。目前进展仍然缓慢，从汽油来看，我们还有很长的路要走。”
在截至2021年3月20日的那一周之前，自2021年初以来，汽油量大多徘徊在比上年水平低15-18%的范围内。主要的例外是截至2月20日的一周，由于冬季风暴的影响，同比下降了22.4%。
截至3月20日当周，汽油零售量与上年同期相比出现正增长，这并不是因为需求大幅增加，而是更多地反映了去年同期加油站出现的大幅下滑。截至2020年3月21日的一周，美国汽油销量落后2019年的水平23.6%，这是美国汽油周销量连续四周暴跌至上世纪70年代初尼克松政府执政以来最高水平的第一周，在截至4月11日的一周，销量落后上一年的水平47.5%。
目前反弹的程度因地区而异。西南地区的销售量超过了2020年的15%。与此同时，美国东南部地区仅以8.6%的速度超过了2020年的水平，这主要是由于东南部的许多州没有像去年美国其他地区那样迅速采取行动，实施强制性的家庭订单。
从国家层面的数据来看，汽油需求复苏的地区差异也很明显。由于西海岸主要是美国COVID-19大流行的早期中心，加利福尼亚州的加仑销售量出现了一些最早的下降。与去年相比，加州的汽油销量增长了14.6%，但同一家店的销量仍落后于2019年同期的22.7%。另一方面，佛罗里达州没有那么快颁布检疫规定，数据描绘了一幅截然不同的需求图景。与去年相比，佛罗里达州的燃料零售商增长了6.4%，增幅要小得多，但仅比两年前的需求水平低了11.2%。
王磊 摘译自 烃加工
原文如下：
U.S. gasoline demand exceeds 2020 levels for first time
Year-on-year gasoline sales in the United States have moved into positive territory for the first time—on the one-year anniversary of the first major declines that resulted from COVID-induced stay at home orders. However, demand still trails pre-pandemic levels by a considerable margin, according to the latest data from Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO).
U.S. gasoline same-store sales in gallons for the week ending March 20, 2021 were 10.1% higher than 2020, according to OPIS Demand, a weekly survey of more than 25,000 fuel stations nationwide.* Nevertheless, same-store gasoline sales were still 16% below pre-pandemic levels.
“The year-on-year increase in fuel demand from March 2020 is certainly welcome news for the recovery of the economy and the beginning of the return to normal life for the American people,” said Brian Norris, executive director of retail fuels, OPIS by IHS Markit. “But the real measure of recovery will be a return to pre-pandemic levels. It’s there that progress remains slow and, looking at gasoline, we still have a long way to go.”
Prior to the week ending March 20, 2021, gasoline volumes had mostly hovered in the range of 15% to 18% below prior-year levels since the start of 2021. The main exception was the week ending February 20, which saw a year-on-year decline of 22.4% due to impacts from Winter Storm Uri.
Retail gasoline sales volumes moving into positive territory compared to prior-year numbers for the week ending March 20 are not due to a major increase in demand but more reflect the massive declines that were seen at the pump during the same period last year. The week ending March 21, 2020 saw volumes trail 2019 levels by 23.6%, the first week in a four-week stretch that saw weekly U.S. gasoline sales volumes plummet to levels not seen since the Nixon Administration was in office in the early 1970s, culminating with volumes 47.5% behind prior-year levels the week ending April 11.
The extent of the current rebound varies by region. The Southwest region surpassed 2020 volumes by 15%. Meanwhile, the Southeastern part of the United States surpassed 2020 levels by only 8.6%, largely due to many states in the Southeast not moving as quickly to mandated stay at home orders as the rest of the country did last year.
The regional disparity in gasoline demand recovery is also apparent when looking at state-level data. California saw some of the earliest declines in gallons sold due to the west coast largely being the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Compared to last year, gasoline sales are up 14.6% in California, however volumes still trail same-week 2019 by 22.7% on a same-store basis. Florida, on the other hand, was not as quick to enact quarantine mandates, and the data paints a very different demand picture. Fuel retailers in Florida saw a much-smaller 6.4% increase versus last year, but only trail demand levels from two years ago by 11.2%.
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