据今日油价4月1日报道，10多年来，秘鲁一直在努力建设其油气部门，并提高原油储量和产量。2020年对于这个安第斯国家饱受危机困扰的石油工业来说尤其困难。国家发展环境、新冠肺炎疫情以及持续的基础设施中断都影响了油气的产量。
尽管秘鲁是拉丁美洲地区首批启动出行限制措施以减缓疫情传播的国家之一，但这个安第斯国家2020年的国内生产总值(GDP)收缩了超过11%。大宗商品价格走软加剧了这一情况。要知道，金属采矿业是推动经济增长的关键因素，但全球却陷入了一场由疫情引发的衰退。
秘鲁有计划的经济复苏不仅依赖于恢复这个安第斯国家经济上至关重要的采矿部门的活动，而且依赖于加强饱经冲突的石油工业的生产。截至2020年9月，由于秘鲁亚马逊地区针对石油行业的暴力抗议活动迫使油田和泵站关闭，原油产量降至几十年来的最低点，每日29165桶。尽管原油产量大幅下降，但秘鲁的天然气产量继续增长，2020年9月达到130万立方英尺/天，远低于2020年4月的低点7.9亿立方英尺/天。
2020年，秘鲁国家石油公司的数据显示，秘鲁全国石油产量平均为39738桶/天，比2019年下降25%。原油产量的急剧下降，加上2020年3月的油价暴跌，给秘鲁经济带来了压力。
2021年2月，秘鲁的油气产量表明该国正在恢复生产。当月的石油产量环比上升1%，至35388桶/天，而天然气产量相对持平，仅增长0.34%，至85430桶/天。2021年2月，秘鲁的油气总产量达到321660桶油当量/天，比前一个月增长1%。
尽管有这些稳定的增长，安第斯国家的石油和天然气产量仍然大大低于疫情爆发前的水平。尽管天然气产量保持稳定，但秘鲁2021年2月的原油产量比2020年同期下降42%，液化天然气产量下降5%。因此，该拉丁美洲国家当月的油气总产量比2020年2月下降了12%，这表明秘鲁的油气部门要恢复到一起前的产量还有很长的路要走。
在秘鲁的亚马逊地区，石油行业面临的一个主要阻力是大量的反对声音，这是因为这个安第斯国家的大部分已探明石油储量和正在运营的油田都在亚马逊盆地。根据秘鲁石油公司的数据，该国已探明石油储量的48%(总计344500桶)位于亚马逊流域。2021年2月的最新生产数据显示，大约四分之一的秘鲁石油来自亚马逊，其中20.5%来自东北部丛林。
扩大秘鲁的油气生产被认为是帮助该国从疫情中恢复的关键部分。虽然这个安第斯国家没有像厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚、巴西和阿根廷那样专注于建设石油工业，但它拥有相当大的石油潜力。该国位于南美油气资源最丰富的地区之一——sub-Andean。正是这种趋势赋予了哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和阿根廷可观的石油资源。在秘鲁已经发现了18个沉积盆地。秘鲁国家石油公司估计，可采石油资源超过140亿桶。
疫情对经济造成的严重影响，最近的油价反弹使得重启石油行业成为首要任务。尽管产量正在上升，但需要吸引大量外国投资，才能使生产恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Peru’s Oil Industry Is Key To Its Pandemic Recovery
Peru has struggled for over a decade to build its hydrocarbon sector and boost crude oil reserves and production. 2020 was particularly difficult for the Andean country’s crisis-ridden petroleum industry. ongoing social conflict, notably in Peru’s northeastern Amazon, the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing infrastructure outages all impacted hydrocarbon output. Those issues were amplified by the Latin American country’s long-running political crisis and the socioeconomic fallout from the pandemic.
Like its Latin American neighbors, Peru’s economy was harshly impacted by the pandemic. The Andean country’s 2020 gross domestic product contracted by over 11% despite Peru being one of the first regional countries to initiate a lockdown to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. That was worsened by softer commodity prices, with metals mining being a key economic driver, as the world slumped into a pandemic-induced recession. Peru’s planned economic recovery depends not only on restarting activity in the Andean country’s economically crucial mining sector but bolstering production in the strife-torn petroleum industry. By September 2020, crude oil production had fallen to a multi-decade low of 29,165 barrels daily as violent protests against the petroleum industry in Peru’s Amazon forced oilfields and pumping stations to be shuttered. While crude oil output fell sharply, Peru’s natural gas production continued to grow, reaching 1.3 million cubic feet daily for September 2020, well above the April 2020 low of 790 million cubic feet daily. In 2020, data from PeruPetro shows that Peru’s national oil production averaged 39,738 barrels per day, which is 25% lower than 2019. That sharp decline in crude oil output combined with the March 2020 oil price collapse weighed on Peru’s economy.
In February 2021, Peru’s hydrocarbon production demonstrated that it was on the road to recovery. That month’s oil production (Spanish) climbed by 1% month over month to 35,388 barrels per day while natural gas liquids remained relatively flat - only gaining 0.34% at 85,430 barrels of oil equivalent daily. It was natural gas (Spanish) which experienced the largest gain, rising 1.8% to 1.25 million cubic feet per day. That saw Peru’s total hydrocarbon output for February 2021 hit 321,660 barrels of oil equivalent per day which was a 1% increase compared to a month earlier.
Despite those steady gains the Andean country’s oil and natural gas production was still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels. Peru’s February 2021 crude oil output was 42% lower than for the comparable period in 2020 while natural gas liquids were 5% less, although natural gas production remained stable. As a result, the Latin American country’s total combined hydrocarbon production for that month was 12% lower than for February 2020, indicating there is a considerable journey ahead for Peru’s hydrocarbon sector for it to recover to pre-pandemic production.
A key headwind for the petroleum industry is the considerable community dissent and lack of social license in Peru’s Amazon. This is because a large portion of the Andean country’s proved oil reserves and operational oilfields are in the Amazon basin. According to data from Peru’s hydrocarbon regulator PeruPetro, 48% of the country’s proved oil reserves, totaling 344,500 barrels, is in the Amazon. The latest production data for February 2021 shows that roughly a quarter of Peru’s oil is extracted from the Amazon with 20.5% from the northeastern jungle which is the region most affected by the unrest. That explains why the substantial social conflict in Northeastern Peru coupled with a distinct lack of social license has significantly impacted Peru’s crude oil output.
Expanding Peru’s hydrocarbon production has been identified as a key part of helping the country to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. While the Andean country has not focused on building its oil industry in the same way Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina have, it possesses considerable petroleum potential. The country is located on one of the most prolific hydrocarbon trends in South America, the sub-Andean megatrend. It is that trend that has endowed Colombia, Ecuador, and Argentina with their considerable petroleum resources. There have been 18 sedimentary basins identified in Peru. PeruPetro has determined they contain 421,667 barrels of proved and possible oil reserves as well as estimated recoverable petroleum resources of over 14 billion barrels.
The considerable economic fallout from the pandemic has left the country in crisis. Now, the recent oil price rally makes restarting its oil industry a top priority. While production is rising, Lima needs to attract substantial foreign investment if operations are to return to a pre-pandemic level.
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