据油价网2021年3月31日伦敦报道，分析师告诉路透社记者，尽管最近有迹象显示，由于欧洲正在应对新冠肺炎疫情石油需求减弱，但原油期货市场结构仍表明，今年下半年石油需求将开始超过供应。
布伦特原油期货即月价差在3月份转至正价差，表明短期内需求减弱和石油供应过剩。
上周，距离最近的5月份布伦特原油合约价格自今年1月以来首次低于下个月的6月份合约价格。期货——即近月价格低于未来几个月价格的结构——表明市场供过于求。只有最近的合约是正价差，但近几天现货溢价的疲软加剧了对短期石油需求的担忧。
3月31日早些时候，5月份的原油期货价格仍比6月份的原油期货价格每桶上涨了0.15美元。
然而，期货曲线上剩余的合约仍处于现货溢价状态，市场的这种状态表明供应趋紧，即期价格高于远期价格。6个月期布伦特原油价差(5月和11月合约的价差)仍处于每桶2美元以上的深度现货溢价，分析师表示，这继续表明今年下半年石油市场将重新平衡，需求将开始超过供应。
尽管最近欧洲主要经济体重新封锁导致库存增加，但Energy Aspects的分析师仍然看好下半年石油需求复苏的前景。“我们仍看好夏季原油价格和价差，” Energy Aspects的分析师对路透社记者如是表示。
近几周，随着欧洲封锁，现货市场出现迹象表明，现货石油需求并不像石油期货价格所暗示的那样强劲，需求有所减弱。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Analysts See Oil Markets Balancing Out In H2 2021
Despite recent signs of weakening oil demand as Europe grapples with a new wave of COVID cases, the crude oil futures market structure still points to demand beginning to outpace supply in the second half of 2021, analysts tell Reuters.
The front-month spread of the Brent Crude futures prices flipped to contango in March, pointing to weaker demand and an oil oversupply in the immediate term.
Last week, the nearest Brent Crude contract for May was trading at a discount to the next-month contract, the June contract, for the first time since January this year. The contango—the structure in which the front-month price is lower than prices in future months—points to an oversupply on the market. only the nearest contract was in contango, but the weakness in the backwardation in recent days has exacerbated concerns over near-term oil demand.
Early on Wednesday, the May contract continued to trade in a $0.15 a barrel contango versus the June contract.
However, the remaining contracts further out on the futures curve remain in backwardation, the state of the market signaling tighter supplies with prompt prices higher than those further out in time. The six-month Brent spread, the difference between the May and November contracts, is still in a deep backwardation of over $2 a barrel, which, analysts say, continues to point to the oil market rebalancing in the second half of this year with demand starting to exceed supply.
Analysts at Energy Aspects remain bullish on the prospects of oil demand recovery in the second half of the year, despite the recent build-up of inventories amid renewed lockdowns in major European economies.
“We remain bullish (on) summer crude prices and spreads,” Energy Aspects told Reuters.
Demand has been weaker in recent weeks, with lockdowns in Europe and signs emerging from the physical market that spot oil demand was not as strong as oil futures prices had suggested.
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