据路透社4月6日报道，欧佩克+将从5月起放宽产量限制，这实际上是在押注当前疲软的原油需求将随着产量恢复而同步改善。
从历史上来看，实现这一平衡将极其困难，特别是在新冠肺炎疫情导致全球石油市场受到如此大的破坏的情况下。在疫情影响依然明显的情况下，欧佩克+决定在7月前将原油日产量增加210万桶，这个决定看起来似乎很大胆。
欧佩克在4月1日会议上决定，将5月的减产量降至约700万桶/天、6月每日增加35万桶/天的产量，7月每日增加40万桶/天的产量。此外，欧佩克+的最大出口国沙特阿拉伯表示，将在7月前逐步取消额外的自愿减产量，此举将使日产量增加100万桶。
上周的会议令原油市场有些意外，此前市场一直预计欧佩克+将把减产延期一个月至5月份。考虑到多数炼油商将已经完成4月的采购计划，欧佩克+决定在5月增加35万桶/天的产量。
6月份新增35万桶/天的产量对市场的影响可能也有限，因为许多炼油厂，尤其是亚洲最大的石油进口炼油商，很可能已经确定了他们的需求和装货计划。然而，7月份，在5月和6月的基础上，可能会再增加140万桶/天。
现在的问题是，欧佩克+的说法是否会被证明是正确的，即需求是否可以以市场能够吸收更多原油的速度复苏。
全球指标布伦特原油期货周一有所回落，收于每桶62.15美元，低于4月1日欧佩克+会议当天的每桶64.86美元。这也比今年3月8日创下的每桶71.38美元的高点低了约12.9%。
有证据表明，亚洲对进口原油的需求正在回到2020年第一季度末疫情冲击需求之前的水平。根据Refinitiv Oil Research的数据，3月亚洲原油进口量预计约为2520万桶/天，略低于2月的2575万桶/天，但高于1月的2458万桶/天和2020年12月的2321万桶/天。
2020年3月的进口量为2660万桶/天，而2020年2月的亚洲进口量为2670万桶/天。总体而言，虽然亚洲对进口原油的需求正在回升，但似乎还没有完全回到疫情爆发前的水平。
另一个可能使问题复杂化的因素是，亚洲的需求复苏似乎并不均衡，汽油的表现好于柴油和航空燃油等中间馏分油。这表明轻小型车辆运输正在恢复，但工业和航空需求仍低于正常水平。
周一新加坡航空燃油的利润率收于每桶3.63美元，高于3月31日以来2.23美元的低点，但仍远低于疫情爆发前每桶15美元的利润水平。
周一汽油的生产利润为每桶7.20美元，与2020年初疫情爆发前几个月的平均水平相似。炼油商可能会倾向于转向生产更多汽油的轻质原油，而不是生产更多中间馏分的重质原油。这将为一些炼油商带来额外的潜在利益，尤其是印度的炼油商，它们正寻求将供应从欧佩克+转向多样化，值得一提的是，中东原油的许多替代品是来自西非、美国、南美和欧洲的轻质原油。
王佳晶 摘译自 路透社
原文如下：
OPEC+ bets crude oil demand will recover as fast as output returns
The move by the OPEC+ group of oil exporters to ease their output restrictions from May onwards is effectively a bet that the current soft demand for crude will improve at the same pace as production returns.
If history is a guide, it will be extremely difficult to get that balance correct, especially in the wake of such a large disruption to the global oil market as the coronavirus pandemic.
With the impact of the pandemic still evident, the decision by OPEC+, the group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, to add back an effective 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output by July seems brave.
The group decided at a meeting on April 1 to ease their output cuts of about 7 million bpd by 350,000 bpd in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and by 400,000 bpd in July.
In addition, OPEC+’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it was phasing out its extra voluntary cuts by July, a move that will add 1 million bpd.
Last week’s meeting came as something of a surprise to the crude market, which had been expecting OPEC+ to roll over their cuts for another month into May.
However, adding back 350,000 bpd for May is a relatively small amount and given that most refiners will have already completed their buying programmes for the month, this part of the OPEC+ decision can be discounted.
The further 350,000 bpd for June may also have a limited impact on the market, again, as many refiners, especially in the top importing region of Asia, are likely to have worked out their needs and therefore their loading programmes.
However, by the time July arrives, another 1.4 million bpd could be added back into the market in addition to what was put back in May and June.
The question is whether OPEC+ will be proven correct that demand is recovering at a pace that will see the market being able to absorb that much additional crude.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures retreated somewhat on Monday, ending at $62.15 a barrel, down from $64.86 on April 1, the day of the OPEC+ meeting. They are also some 12.9% below the peak so far this year of $71.38, reached on March 8.
There is evidence that Asia’s demand for imported crude is returning to levels seen before the pandemic hit demand toward the end of the first quarter of 2020.
Crude arrivals in Asia in March are expected to be around 25.2 million bpd, according to Refinitiv Oil Research, slightly down from 25.75 million bpd in February, but up from January’s 24.58 million bpd and December’s 23.21 million bpd.
Arrivals in March last year were 26.6 million bpd, while February 2020 saw 26.7 million bpd offloaded in Asia.
Overall, it seems that while Asia’s demand for imported crude is recovering, it’s not quite back to where it was pre-pandemic.
The other factor that may complicate matters is that the recovery in demand in Asia appears uneven, with gasoline performing better than middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel.
This would suggest that light vehicle transport is returning, but industrial and aviation demand are still softer than normal.
The profit margin on a barrel of jet fuel in Singapore ended at $3.63 a barrel on Monday, up from the low so far this year of $2.23 on March 31, but still well below the levels of above $15 that were common before the pandemic.
In contrast, the profit on making a barrel of gasoline was $7.20 on Monday, similar to levels that prevailed in the months prior to the coronavirus outbreak at the start of 2020.
Refiners may be tempted to switch to lighter crudes that yield more gasoline, rather than heavier grades that produce more middle distillates.
This would have the added potential benefit for some refiners, especially those in India, who are seeking to diversify supply away from OPEC+, given that many of the alternatives to Middle Eastern crude are lighter grades from West Africa, the United States, South America and Europe.
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