据油价网4月6日消息：欧佩克+上周出人意料地决定在7月前将石油日产量累计减少200万桶，这是基于对第二季度石油需求强劲复苏的预期。然而，最近的需求担忧表明，该联盟的供应管理政策可能再次更多地停留在客户评估领域。
路透社专栏作家Clyde Russell写道，未来三个月集体减产幅度将超过100万桶，加上沙特阿拉伯逐渐取消其额外的100万桶/天减产，表明欧佩克+预期需求将强劲反弹并证明供应增加是合理的。
然而，在疫苗接种计划滞后的主要经济体中，新冠病毒卷土重来的不可预测性可能会再次破坏欧佩克+预测和供应管理政策。
上周，欧佩克+决定在5月和6月分别将逐步增加35万桶/天的石油产量，7月将增加40万桶/天以上。另外，沙特阿拉伯还将在未来几个月内逐步放宽100万桶/天的额外单边减产措施，从5月和6月每月增产25万桶开始。
尽管对欧佩克+周四会议结果的最初下意识反应是大量抛售石油，因为额外的供应即将到来，但当天价格强劲，涨幅超过3%，由于市场意识到欧佩克+决定向市场投放更多原油，预计石油需求将会增加。
Russell表示，由于汽油需求强劲，亚洲对原油的需求看似强劲，但柴油和航空燃料需求依然疲弱。
多数分析师仍然认为，随着夏季需求的增强，市场将能够消化欧佩克+的新增原油。例如，高盛仍看好石油，并预计强劲的需求将要求欧佩克+在第三季度向市场再投放200万桶/天的原油供应，而此前欧佩克和沙特阿拉伯决定在5月至7月期间恢复约200万桶/天的供应。
冯娟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC Is Betting Big On Robust Oil Demand Recovery
Last week’s surprise decision from OPEC+ to ease the production cuts by a cumulative 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by July relies on expectations of robust oil demand recovery in the second quarter. Yet, recent demand concerns suggest the alliance’s supply management policies could once again be more in the realm of guestimates.
The easing of the collective cuts by over 1 million bpd over the next three months, plus Saudi Arabia reversing gradually its extra 1 million bpd cut signal that OPEC+ expects demand to rebound strongly and justify supply increases, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell writes.
However, the unpredictability of the COVID resurgence in major economies lagging behind in vaccination programs could spoil the OPEC+ forecasts and supply management policies once again.
Last week, OPEC+ decided to gradually increase collective oil production by 350,000 bpd in each of May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will also gradually ease its extra unilateral cut of 1 million bpd over the course of the next few months, beginning with monthly production increases of 250,000 bpd in each of May and June.
Although the initial knee-jerk reaction to the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday was heavy selling in oil because additional supply is coming, prices finished strong that day with more than 3-percent gains as the market realized that OPEC+ expects strengthening of oil demand with its decision to put more crude on the market.
Asia’s demand for crude looks strong as gasoline demand looks robust, but demand for diesel and jet fuel is still soft, according to Reuters’ Russell.
Most analysts continue to believe that the market will be able to absorb the new barrels from OPEC+ with strengthening demand going into the summer months. Goldman Sachs, for example, is still bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million bpd on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.
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