据彭博社4月13日报道，随着欧佩克+和中东地区石油产量的增加，提高了该地区石油运输的竞争力，一场价格战可能即将在全球石油市场上演，这可能会迫使其他供应商对其原油价格进行打折。
从一个关键的价差的扩大可以看出这一警告信号——交易员利用这个价差来判断来自中东的货物能否承受与布伦特原油相挂钩的价格。目前，这一价差接近逾16个月来的最大水平，这对布伦特原油来说不是好兆头。
FGE的高级石油分析师格雷森·林(Grayson Lim)表示：“现在亚洲客户们得到的原油价格要便宜得多，而且很多都来自中东。那些与布伦特原油价格相挂钩的原油需要以很大的折扣出售，才能吸引该地区的买家。”
本月初，欧佩克及其盟友决定放松对石油产量的大幅限制——正是这些限制措施挽救了去年石油价格因疫情而崩溃的局面。此举将使石油日产量恢复200多万桶，且供应将分阶段恢复，直至7月。市场预期，疫苗的推出将支撑能源消费的进一步增长。到目前为止，该计划得到了欧佩克主要领导者沙特阿拉伯的支持。值得一提的是，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油期货今年以来上涨了20%以上。
在欧佩克+准备放松石油供应限制的同时，伊朗石油持续出口，加上一些北海油田计划中的维护工程，将缩减布伦特原油的产量，使得其与中东的石油价差升至2019年末以来的最大水平。
与几个月前相比，这是一个大逆转。去年11月，布伦特迪拜期货交易所还显示布伦特-迪拜的价格有小幅折让。且在去年9月和10月的末段时间，与迪拜货物价格相对而言更高些。
当前的这种价差将促使买家货比三家，在亚洲，原油价差的扩大意味着，用户可能会从中东购买更多价格合理的现货原油，除非大西洋盆地和西非的石油被大幅削减，以保持竞争力。
这方面的迹象可能已经出现了。上周，安哥拉国家石油公司(Sonangol Group)再次下调了5月份与布伦特油价挂钩的Saturno货物的报价。尼日利亚还将Qua Iboe和Bonny Light的官方售价下调至去年11月以来的最低水平。
王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
A Key Oil Spread Points to Price War Erupting as Supply Expands
A price war may be looming in the global oil market as rising output from OPEC+ and the Middle East boosts the competitiveness of the region’s shipments, potentially forcing other suppliers to discount their barrels.
The warning signs can be seen in the widening of a key price spread that’s used by traders to determine the affordability of cargoes from the Middle East against Brent-linked barrels. Right now, the gap is close to the widest in more than 16 months, and that doesn’t bode well for oil that’s priced against Brent.
“There’s much cheaper crude, and a lot of it coming from the Middle East,” said Grayson Lim, a senior oil analyst at FGE. “Those Brent-linked cargoes will need to be offered at a huge discount for buyers in the region to snap up the barrels,” he said, referring to Asian users.
Earlier this month the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to relax the deep production curbs that rescued prices from last year’s pandemic-driven collapse. The move will see more than 2 million barrels a day in supply restored in stages through to July amid expectations that the roll-out of vaccines will underpin further gains in energy consumption. So far, the plan has been defended by leading architect Saudi Arabia, with futures for Brent and West Texas Intermediate up more than 20% year-to-date.At the same time that the OPEC+ cartel is preparing to loosen off the taps, there have been continuous flows of clandestine Iranian oil to China. That -- plus planned maintenance of some North Sea fields, which will shrink the flow of Brent-linked barrels -- has pushed out the spread to the widest since late 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That’s a big reversal from just a few months ago. The so-called Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps -- to give the marker its formal name -- showed Brent-Dubai at a small discount as recently as November. In October and September, Dubai-linked cargoes were also more costly on some days.
The shift favoring Dubai-linked flows is likely to ripple through the market, prompting buyers to shop around and sellers to respond. In Asia, the widened spread means users will probably scoop up more affordable spot cargoes from the Middle East, unless oil from the Atlantic Basin and West Africa is slashed to stay competitive, according to traders who asked not to be identified.
There may be signs of that already. Last week, Angola’s Sonangol Group again reduced the offer price for a Dated Brent-linked Saturno cargo for May, with the shipment eventually taken by China’s Unipec. Nigeria has also cut official selling prices of Qua Iboe and Bonny Light to the lowest since November.
While Iran’s U.S.-sanctioned barrels aren’t counted under the formal OPEC+ quota system, the flows still contribute to downward pressure on Dubai-linked cargoes. The Iranian shipments taken by China reduce local demand for other spot cargoes. FGE estimates that Iran’s exports of crude, condensate and fuels could easily reach up to 2 million barrels a day in the coming months.
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