据油价网4月12日消息：摩根士丹利在一份新报告中称，今年夏天油价可能会停留在65-70美元区间，该公司暂时调整了此前对每桶70美元的预测。
原油库存仍在减少，流动性继续改善，但钻井活动的增加对油价的影响可能比摩根士丹利分析师最初预计的要大。摩根士丹利表示，这些因素一直存在于“已知的未知”领域，但现在它们可能会对油价走势产生更大影响。
摩根士丹利2月底曾表示，布伦特原油将在第三季度达到70美元，这是市场大幅改善的迹象。
盛宝银行分析师认为，维持布伦特原油价格区间波动可能面临短期挑战。
盛宝银行表示：“上周油价创下三周以来的最差水平，尽管下半年的需求前景看起来很强劲，但短期挑战可能会使布伦特原油价格保持在目前的60美元至65美元之间。”
高盛方面继续看好石油，并预计强劲的需求将要求欧佩克+在第三季度向市场投放200万桶/天的原油，此前欧佩克和沙特阿拉伯决定在5月至7月期间恢复200万桶/日左右的石油需求。
即使在3月中旬油价下跌之后，高盛仍认为"大喘息"是原油的买入机会，并继续预测布伦特原油将在夏季触及每桶80美元。
冯娟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Morgan Stanley: Oil Prices Stuck In $60 Range This Summer
Oil prices will likely be stuck in the $65-$70 range this summer, Morgan Stanley says in a new note, tempering its previous forecast for $70.
Although some supportive factors for oil prices are still in place, the recovery of U.S. drilling activity is headwind that are “appearing to take the steam out of this recovery,” Morgan Stanley said, as quoted by Reuters U.S. energy editor David Gaffen.
Oil inventories are still drawing down, and mobility continues to improve, but Iran and higher U.S. drilling activity now appear to likely have more impact on oil prices than Morgan Stanley analysts had initially assumed. Those factors have always been there, in the “known unknowns” territory, but now they could influence the trend in oil prices more, according to Morgan Stanley.
At the end of February, Morgan Stanley was saying that Brent Crude will hit $70 in the third quarter in a sign of “a much improved market.”
Saxo Bank analysts said on Monday they see short-term challenges likely keeping Brent Crude prices rangebound.
“Last week oil posted its worst week in three and while the demand outlook into the second half looks strong, short-term challenges are likely to keep Brent rangebound, currently between $60 and $65,” Saxo Bank said.
Goldman Sachs, for its part, continues to be bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.
Even after the sell-off in oil in mid-March, Goldman Sachs said that the “big breather” was a buying opportunity for oil and continued to forecast Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the summer.
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