据今日油价4月13日报道，3月份，美国政府提议征收碳税，以解决导致气候变化的温室气体排放问题，这让化石燃料行业再次受到打击。白宫国家气候顾问吉娜·麦卡锡明确表示，政府并不是在打击石油和天然气行业，而是希望利用减排技术来创造工作机会，推动美国经济并加强美国制造业发展。
有趣的是，包括埃克森美孚和雪佛龙在内的10家最大的石油和天然气公司的高管都支持这个计划，而西方石油公司的首席执行官Vicki Hollub是唯一高调的反对者。
减排计划已经敲响了煤炭等高碳产业的警钟。
如果联邦碳价格从2026年开始实施，到2030年风能和太阳能发电可能从目前占发电组合的11%增加到30%，那么煤炭发电目前占发电组合的21%的份额可能会降至仅5%。事实上，封存一半的燃煤电厂将为12.2万兆瓦的风能和太阳能发电打开大门，同时到2025年将减少约6亿吨的温室气体排放。
一项新的研究显示，积极推行100%清洁能源还可以为美国节省多达3210亿美元的能源成本。毫不奇怪的是，大型石油公司的高管们想出了一个截然不同的解决方案:在不牺牲石油和天然气产量的前提下，实现业务低碳环保运营。
减少排放，而不是禁用化石燃料。
3月，IHS Markit能源大会最重要的主题是，大型石油公司不想把重点放在削减石油和天然气产量上，而是想减轻其碳排放和温室气体排放的影响。埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦•伍兹和西方石油公司的维琪•霍尔卢布认为，减少化石燃料的碳排放——而不是减少实际使用的化石燃料，是应对气候变化的最佳方式。
有趣的是，两位首席执行官都强调，世界仍然需要石油和天然气，各国政府需要专注于减缓全球变暖，使用碳捕获和封存(CCS)等技术，而不是打击化石燃料生产。然而，即使是其中发声最强硬的埃克森美孚，其态度也与几年前相比有了明显的改变。
在该公司2021年投资者日期间，首席执行官Darren Woods概述了能源转型战略，包括削减产量增长和增加现金流的计划，以支持不断增长的股息。埃克森美孚透露，该公司计划在2020年至2025年将产量保持在370万桶/天的水平，较一年前发布的2025年500万桶/天的预期减少26%。
尽管如此，埃克森美孚仍计划继续提高二叠纪盆地和圭亚那的产量，今年二叠纪盆地的平均产量为40万桶/天，到2025年将升至70万桶/天。埃克森美孚认为圭亚那将很快成为重要的盈利点，但该公司已无限期暂停了其他大型项目，如300亿美元的莫桑比克液化天然气出口项目。
Darren Woods宣布，计划将碳捕获和封存方面的投资增加到新增支出的3%左右，虽然比此前的1%有所改善，但与欧洲主要公司道达尔和荷兰皇家壳牌的两位数占比水平相比仍有很大差距。Woods敦促各国政府停止公司间的比较，而是建立碳市场，以确保大家利可以用市场力量以最有效的成本减少二氧化碳排放。
财大气粗的投资者并不买账。
由145名成员组成的负责监管25万美元资产的埃克森美孚联盟表示，埃克森美孚必须改变方向，而不仅仅是任命新的董事候选人。
西方石油公司的Vicky Hollub非常赞同Darren Woods的观点:“我认为人们不理解的是，我们不应该谈论放弃化石燃料。我们真正需要谈论的是消除排放，如果我们能做到，我们会做到。零碳石油，这是世界需要的。在没有石油工业的帮助下达成巴黎协议，不可否认，这是世界无法实现的目标。说实话，我们可以成为碳减排的领导者。”
Hollub表示，OXY的目标不仅是成为净零石油生产商，而且要帮助其他公司降低碳足迹:“我们将在二叠纪盆地建造最大的碳捕获设备，与我们合作的是联合航空公司，因为他们也致力于在2050年实现净零排放。”
Hollub透露，西方石油公司已经签约从科罗拉多州的两家乙醇工厂和一家钢铁厂提取碳，并将其封存在二叠纪盆地。上周，西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum)宣布，它的子公司Oxy Low Carbon Ventures计划建造并运营一个生物乙烯试验工厂，该工厂将采用人造二氧化碳替代碳氢化合物原料的技术。
生物乙烯目前主要由甘蔗提取的生物乙醇生产。该试点工厂预计将于2022年开始运营。
与此同时，OXY反对征收碳税。OXY首席执行官在德克萨斯州独立生产商和版税所有者协会的一次网络峰会上表示:“碳税对很多行业都不利，对消费者不利，尤其是那些从经济角度看处于不利地位的消费者。”
在以550亿美元收购阿纳达科(Anadarko)后，西方石油公司背上了385亿美元的巨额债务，成为一桩并购交易失败的典型代表。
能源巨头们都在为生存而战。
CFRA能源分析师斯图尔特•格利克曼(Stewart Glickman)表示，大型石油公司花了大量时间宣传其在低碳未来和碳捕获等技术方面的努力，因为它们实际上卷入了一场生存之战。仅在2020年，ESG基金就吸引了511亿美元的新资金，而在这个时代，没有低碳战略将导致灾难。
当然，化石燃料投资者仍然想听到一些老生常谈的问题:你的资产负债表有多健康?你能维持股息吗?你的营运现金流是怎样的?你能在不花费太多资本支出的情况下维持你想要的产量吗?这些考虑永远是最重要的。但与此同时，他们也希望听到对可再生能源和低碳解决方案业务的投资。即使换几个董事会席位这个问题也无法避免。
到目前为止，石油和天然气公司似乎在安抚投资者的紧张情绪方面做得不错，能源精选板块SPDR基金(XLE)上涨了26.2%，而标普500指数年初迄今的涨幅为9.8%。
也就是说，在大多数石油公司都转向可再生能源投资之际，仅仅是转向绿色油气产业的策略仍然是一种风险和未经检验的策略。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下；
Big Oil Aims To Win Back Investors With Green Oil
Last month, the Biden administration dealt the fossil fuel industry yet another blow after it proposed the introduction of a carbon tax in a bid to address the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. White House National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy went to great lengths to make it clear that the Biden Administration is not fighting the oil and gas sector, but rather wants to deploy emissions reduction technologies to create union jobs, fuel the American economy and strengthen American manufacturing.
Interestingly, executives from 10 of the biggest oil and gas companies, including CEOs of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), bought into Biden's plan with Occidental (NYSE:OXY) CEO Vicki Hollub being the only high-profile dissenter.
Why is this important? Because it has probably sounded the death knell for high-carbon industries such as coal.
Coal's current 21% share of the generation mix is likely to fall to just 5% by 2030, assuming that a federal carbon price starts in 2026 while wind and solar generation could increase from the current 11% of the generation mix to 30% in 2030.
Indeed, mothballing half of the country's coal-burning electricity plants will open the doors for 122,000 megawatts of wind and solar while also cutting greenhouse gas emissions by some 600 million metric tons by 2025.
An aggressive push towards 100% clean energy could also save Americans as much as $321 billion in energy costs, according to a new study.
Hardly surprisingly, Big Oil executives have come up with a radically different solution: Greening their operations without necessarily sacrificing oil and gas output.
Lowering emissions, not nixing fossil fuels
Speaking at last month's CERAWeek by IHS Markit energy conference, the overriding theme that emerged at the conference is that Big Oil wants to focus not so much on curtailing oil and gas production but rather on mitigating the impact of its carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods and Occidental Petroleum's Vicky Hollub, reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels—and not the actual use of fossil fuels—offers the best way to combat climate change.
Interestingly, both CEOs have stressed that the world still needs oil and gas, and governments need to focus on mitigating global warming using technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) instead of attacking fossil fuels.
Nevertheless, even the biggest hardliner of them all, Exxon Mobil, has markedly changed its tune from just a few years back.
During the company's 2021 Investor Day, CEO Darren Woods outlined the company's energy transition strategy, including plans to trim production growth and boost cash flows in a bid to support a growing dividend. Exxon revealed that it plans to hold production flat from 2020 levels through 2025 at 3.7M boe/day, good for a 26% cut from the 5M boe/day estimate for 2025 it released just a year ago.
Still, Exxon plans to continue ramping up production at the Permian Basin and Guyana, with Permian production averaging 400K boe/day this year before rising to 700K boe/day by 2025. Exxon also sees Guyana quickly becoming a key cash cow, but has indefinitely suspended other major projects such as the $30B Mozambique LNG export project.
Woods announced plans to increase investments on carbon capture and storage to ~3% of new spending, an improvement from the 1% it had previously earmarked for CCS but still a far cry from the double-digit levels from European majors Total SE (NYSE:TOT) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A). Woods urged governments to stop picking winners and losers but instead establish carbon markets so as to "make sure we're using market forces to try to most cost effectively reduce CO2 emissions."
Deep-pocketed investors are not buying it.
The 145-member Coalition for a Responsible Exxon that oversees $2.5T in assets said that Exxon Mobil must change direction and not merely appoint new board candidates.
Occidental Petroleum's Vicky Hollub pretty much echoed Darren Woods' views:
"What I think that people don't understand is we should not be talking about eliminating fossil fuels. What we really need to be talking about is eliminating emissions and if we can provide and we will. Net carbon zero oil, that is what the world needs and the world cannot achieve the goals ... of the Paris accord without the oil industry helping with that. We can be leaders in that."
Hollub said OXY's goal was to not only become a net-zero oil producer but also help other companies lower their carbon footprint:
"We're going to be building what will be the largest direct air capture facility in the Permian and partnering with us to do that is United Airlines because they also have a commitment and focus on getting to net zero by 2050."
Hollub revealed that Occidental has signed up to take carbon from two ethanol plants and a steel plant in Colorado and sequester it in the Permian Basin.
Last week, Occidental Petroleum announced that its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures subsidiary plans to build and operate a bio-ethylene pilot plant that will apply technology using human-made carbon dioxide instead of hydrocarbon-sourced feedstocks.
Bio-ethylene is currently produced from bio-ethanol mainly derived from sugarcane. The pilot plant is expected to begin operations in 2022.
OXY is also against a carbon tax:
"A carbon tax would be bad for a lot of the industry, a carbon tax would be bad for the consumers and especially for those consumers who are more disadvantaged from an economic standpoint," OXY's CEO told a virtual summit of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association.
OXY has become the quintessential poster-child of an M&A deal gone bad after its $55B acquisition of Anadarko left it saddled with a massive $38.5 billion debt pile.
A fight for survival
Stewart Glickman, CFRA energy analyst, says Big Oil is spending a lot of time marketing its efforts on a low carbon future and technologies such as carbon capture because they are literally embroiled in a fight for survival.
In 2020 alone, ESG funds attracted $51.1 billion of new money, and not having a low-carbon strategy in these times is a recipe for disaster.
Sure, fossil fuel investors still want to hear the usual things: How healthy is your balance sheet? Can you sustain your dividend? What's your operating cash flow look like? Can you maintain the production you want without spending too heavily on capex?
These considerations will always be paramount. But in the same breath, they also want to hear about your investment in renewables and low carbon solutions businesses. And changing a few board seats no longer cuts it.
So far, oil and gas companies appear to be doing a good job placating jittery investors, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) up 26.2% vs. 9.8% YTD gain by the S&P 500.
That said, merely greening your legacy hydrocarbon business remains a risky and untested strategy at a time when the majority of oil companies are pivoting towards renewable energy investments.
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