据全球能源新闻网4月10日报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）公布的《4月短期能源展望（STEO）》仍面临更大程度的不确定性，因为对新冠疫情的反应仍在不断变化。与新冠疫情相关的经济活动减少，在过去一年造成了能源需求和供应的变化，并将在未来继续影响这些模式。与2019年相比，美国2020年的国内生产总值(GDP)下降了3.5%。
EIA预计，2021年上半年全球石油库存将减少180万桶/日。预计2021年下半年，全球石油供应的增长将有助于实现市场的基本平衡。然而，这一预测在很大程度上取决于欧佩克+未来的产量决定、美国致密油产量对油价的反应能力、石油需求增长速度等因素。
据EIA估计，今年3月，全球石油和液体燃料日消耗量为9600万桶，较2020年3月增加470万桶。EIA表示，我们预测，2021年全年全球石油和液体燃料的日均消费量将达到9770万桶，较2020年增加550万桶。我们预测，2022年日消费量将增加370万桶，达到日均1.013亿桶。
EIA预计，欧佩克原油产量将从2021年第一季度的日均2510万桶上升至第二季度的2580万桶。此次增产是由于4月1日欧佩克+宣布将在5月份开始提高产量目标。这也反映出沙特阿拉伯将取消5-7月期间100万桶/日的自愿减产。我们预计，2021年下半年，欧佩克原油产量将增至2790万桶/日。
根据EIA的最新数据显示，2021年1月美国国内原油日均产量为1110万桶。据EIA的分析师估计，2月份美国国内原油日产量下降80万桶，主要原因是低温影响了美国大部分地区，特别是德克萨斯州。我们预测，2021年第二季度的原油日均产量将达到1090万桶，到2021年第四季度将增至1140万桶。预计到2022年，美国原油日均产量将达到1190万桶。美国原油产量上升的预测是由于我们预计在预测期内西德克萨斯中质原油价格将保持在55美元/桶以上。
据研究显示，2021年美国天然气日均消费量将达到829亿立方英尺，比2020年下降0.4%。美国天然气消费量的下降是由于天然气价格高于去年，因此用于发电的天然气消费量减少。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
GLOBAL OIL ConSUMPTION WILL AVERAGE 97.7 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021
The April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply during the past year and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels.
EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by 1.8 million b/d in the first half of 2021. Forecast increases in global oil supply will contribute to a mostly balanced market during the second half of 2021. However, the forecast depends heavily on future production decisions by OPEC+, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to oil prices, and the pace of oil demand growth, among other factors.
EIA estimates that the world consumed 96.0 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels in March, an increase of 4.7 million b/d from March 2020. “We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is up by 5.5 million b/d from 2020. We forecast that consumption will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d” the EIA said
EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will rise from an average of 25.1 million b/d in the first quarter of 2021 to 25.8 million b/d in the second quarter. The increase is the result of the April 1 OPEC+ announcement to begin raising production targets in May. It also reflects Saudi Arabia unwinding voluntary cuts of 1.0 million b/d between May and July. We expect OPEC crude oil production will rise to almost 27.9 million b/d in the second half of 2021.
According to EIA’s most recent data, U.S. domestic crude oil production averaged 11.1 million b/d in January 2021. The EIA’s analysts estimate that U.S. domestic crude oil production declined by 0.8 million b/d in February, mostly because of cold temperatures that affected much of the country, particularly Texas. We forecast crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in the second quarter of 2021 and increase to almost 11.4 million b/d by the fourth quarter of 2021. It is expected that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million b/d in 2022. The forecast of rising U.S. crude oil production is the result of our expectation that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will remain above $55/b through the forecast period.
According to the study, U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.4% from 2020. The decline in U.S. natural gas consumption is a result of less natural gas consumed for electric power generation because of higher natural gas prices compared with last year.
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