据安迅思休斯顿4月19日消息，由于关键商品的强劲需求和供应紧张，华尔街分析师看好2021年化工公司的盈利状况，其中一家公司提高了其在化工领域16家公司中的10家的盈利预期。
Alembic全球顾问公司分析师哈桑.艾哈迈德在一份研究报告中表示，他预计2021年剩余时间里，产品价格上涨将超过原材料成本通胀，每股平均收益同比增长33%的预期“似乎比较保守”。他表示:“我们相信，在2021年期间，我们关注的一些公司极有可能出现盈利正面修正。”
美国油漆和涂料生产商PPG上周宣布，第一季度净销售额比去年同期增长15%，超过了最初的预期。
艾哈迈德表示，向消费者传递原材料成本的能力正在令一些综合产品的利润率较上年同期强劲增长。
在与新冠疫情大流行有关的经济最初关闭之后，化学品需求的迅速恢复是显而易见的，因为2020年下半年化学品需求显著增加。
化学品需求快速复苏的趋势延续至第一季度，尽管2月份冬季风暴致使美国海湾地区的许多生产商停产，打击了产量。
艾哈迈德表示:“受需求反弹和生产中断的影响，2021年第一季度大多数大宗化学品价格同比上涨。”他指出，聚乙烯合同价格同比上涨50.8%，乙烯合同价格同比上涨68.9%。
张春晓 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下：
Analyst eyes strong US 2021 chem earnings as price gains should outweigh raw material cost inflation
Robust demand and tight supply of key commodities have Wall Street analysts bullish on 2021 chemical company earnings, with one boosting 2021 earnings estimates for 10 of the 16 companies it covers in the chemical space.
Hassan Ahmed, an analyst at Alembic Global Advisors, said in a research note on Monday that he expects that product price gains should outweigh raw material cost inflation over the rest of 2021 and that expectations of an average earnings per share increase of 33% year over year “seems tepid”.“We believe it's highly possible that some of our covered companies will experience positive earnings revisions throughout 2021,” he said.
US-based paints and coatings producer PPG announced last week that they beat initial guidance as Q1 net sales were 15% higher than the same quarter a year ago.
Ahmed said the ability to pass through rising raw material costs is leading to strong year-over-year margin expansion for some integrated products.
The rapid return of demand following the initial pandemic-related shutdown of the economy was evident as chemical volumes picked up markedly in the second half of 2020.
The trend continued into the first quarter, although volumes took a hit from Winter Storm Uri in February, which knocked many producers in the US Gulf offline.
“Triggered by rebounding demand and outages, most commodity chemical prices in Q1 '21 were up year-over-year,” Ahmed said, noting that contract polyethylene prices rose 50.8% year on year while contract ethylene prices advanced 68.9% year on year.
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