据4月19日Rigzone消息：Rystad Energy透露，其最新预测显示，2021年石油需求将同比增长6%。
该公司预计今年的平均需求将从去年的8960万桶/天升至9540万桶/天。4月的需求预计将达到9300万桶/天，5月预计为9400万桶/天，6月预计为9580万桶/天。
第三季度的石油总需求预计平均为9680万桶/天，第四季度将升至9830万桶/天。 展望2022年，预计明年的石油总需求将继续上升，达到约9940万桶/天。
Rystad认为，今年全球公路燃料总需求将增长9%，达到4510万桶/天。4月份，全球道路燃料需求预计平均为4420万桶/天，随后在5月和6月分别升至4490万桶/天和4590万桶/天。预计第三季度道路燃料需求平均为4620万桶/天，第四季度为4650万桶/天。Rystad预测，到2022年，公路燃料需求将达到4750万桶/天。
Rystad预计，受疫情影响最严重的航空燃油需求今年将增长21%，平均为390万桶/天。然而，该公司指出，这仍然与疫情前水平相距甚远。大部分复苏预计将在2022年进行，届时航空燃料需求平均为540万桶/天。
冯娟 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Oil Demand Predicted to Jump 6 Percent in 2021
Rystad Energy has revealed that its latest forecast projects a six percent year on year increase in oil demand in 2021.
The company sees demand rising to an average of 95.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, from 89.6MMbpd in 2020. April 2021 demand is expected to hit 93 MMbpd, with 94 MMbpd projected in May and 95.8 MMbpd forecasted for June.
Total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 MMbpd before rising to 98.3 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead to 2022, Rystad said its estimates show that total oil demand next year will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 MMbpd.
Rystad believes that total global demand for road fuels will rise by nine percent this year to 45.1 MMbpd. In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 MMbpd globally, before rising to 44.9 MMbpd in May and 45.9 MMbpd in June. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 MMbpd in the third quarter and 46.5 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. In 2022, Rystad forecasts that road fuel demand will hit 47.5 MMbpd.
Rystad expects jet fuel demand, which it says has been hit the hardest by the pandemic, to rise 21 percent this year and average 3.9 MMbpd. The company noted however that this is still “a far cry from pre-pandemic levels”. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when Rystad anticipates jet fuel demand to average 5.4 MMbpd.
The latest oil demand projections released by Rystad are part of the company’s monthly Covid-19 report, which calculates the effect of the pandemic and offers updated estimates for global energy markets. By monitoring recent developments, travel restrictions, quarantine obligations, and new government policies, Rystad says it is able to make frequent fact-based updates to its estimates.
As of April 18, 2.35pm CEST, there have been 140.3 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally, with three million deaths, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO). There have been 792.7 million vaccination doses administered worldwide, as of April 19, the latest WHO figures show.
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