据4月19日Oil Now报道，油气行业为实现巴黎气候目标而采取的行动，将颠覆石油和天然气价格。根据伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）提出的能源转型加速方案（AET-2），所有国内和国际石油公司都将面临衰退，该行业的资产减值、破产或重组规模将远远超过2020年。
伍德麦肯兹副总裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示：“如果我们采取行动，把全球变暖控制在巴黎协议规定的2°C以内，能源结构将会改变——而且会发生深刻的改变。我们的AET-2方案只是一个方案，而不是我们的基本预测。这是基于我们对自然资源部门的基本分析，对如何达成巴黎协议的一种解释。但即便如此，油气行业也不能太过自信。强有力的气候变化政策和迅速革新的技术带来的风险太大了。”
根据AET-2方案，石油需求将大幅下降，油价也将随之大幅下降。到2050年，欧佩克的石油市场份额将超过50%，但其对市场的控制力将下降。
未来，石油价格或将大幅下降。
需求的急剧下降使这些主要产油国无法像今天这样管理市场、支撑价格。值得一提的是，尽管失去了定价能力，低成本的欧佩克产油国仍是全球核心的石油供应国。
因此，油价在21世纪20年代末期将开始下滑。根据AET-2方案，预计到2030年，布伦特原油的平均价格将从目前的60美元/桶-70美元/桶，降至40美元/桶。到2050年，布伦特原油价格可能会跌至10美元/桶-18美元/桶。然而，天然气需求预计将保持弹性。
伍德麦肯兹的设想将见证石油巨头的终结和能源巨头的崛起。财务实力雄厚的综合性公司加快了他们的投资计划，用可再生能源、氢和CCS的现金流来补充不断减少的上游收入。
该咨询公司对能源巨头新能源战略的基准分析显示，AET-2的三大技术支柱是可再生能源行业的新鲜血液，是CCS领域的领军者，是氢能源方面的先行者。未来几年，巨额现金流的诱人预期，可能会导致一些国际石油公司和国家石油公司推迟能源转型行动，但在AET-2情景模拟下，推迟能源转型行动不是一个可持续的企业战略。
王佳晶 摘译自 Oil Now
原文如下：
WoodMac sees US$10 Brent oil coming, oil majors facing decline on scale never before seen
The action to achieve Paris climate goals will upend oil and gas prices. Under consultancy group Wood Mackenzie’s Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario (AET-2), all National and International Oil Companies face decline, and the sector will see asset impairments and bankruptcy or restructuring on a scale far greater than that of 2020.
“If we move to keep global warming to the 2°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, the energy matrix will change – and change profoundly,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President, Macro Oils, at WoodMac.
She added: “Our AET-2 scenario is a scenario, not our base-case forecast. It is one interpretation of how the Paris Agreement could be achieved, based on our fundamental analysis across the natural resource sectors.
“Even so, the oil and gas industry cannot afford to be complacent. The risks associated with robust climate-change policy and rapidly changing technology are too great.”
Under WoodMac’s AET-2 scenario, oil demand will drop significantly, and with it, oil prices. OPEC has an oil-market share of more than 50% by 2050, but less control.
Price fall
The steep fall in demand prevents those key oil producers from managing the market and supporting prices in the way it does today. Despite losing their price-setting ability, however, low-cost Middle East OPEC producers remain core providers of oil.
Consequently, oil prices begin to slip later this decade. By 2030, under AET-2, we would expect Brent to average US$40 per barrel (bbl), down from US$60 to US$70/bbl currently. By 2050, Brent may slide to US$10 to US$18/bbl. Gas demand, however, is expected to remain resilient.
WoodMac’s scenario would see the end of Big Oil and the rise of Big Energy. Financially strong integrated companies step up their investment plans to supplement dwindling upstream revenue with new cash flow from renewables, hydrogen and CCS.
The consultancy group’s benchmarking of the majors’ new energy strategies shows that, on the three technological pillars of AET-2, they are latecomers to renewables, are leaders in CCS and, as large consumers, enjoy a potential early-mover advantage in integrating hydrogen.
“The tantalising hope of a few more years of windfall cash flows may lead some IOCs and NOCs to defer action, but delay will not be a sustainable corporate strategy under the AET-2 scenario,” WoodMac said.
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