据管道&天然气杂志网4月20日报道，根据最新的短期能源展望(STEO)显示， EIA预测美国联邦墨西哥湾(GOM)的原油产量将在未来两年内增加。到2022年底，13个新项目可能会占到墨西哥湾原油总产量的12%，即约20万桶/天。
GOM产量占美国原油产量的15%-16%。去年，GOM原油日均产量为165万桶。预计今年日产量将超过2020年的水平，达到171万桶，2022年将达到175万桶。自2000年以来，原油产量最高的年份是2019年，为190万桶/日。
据雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）表示，大型海上项目的开发需要数年时间。其中四个新项目可能将于2021年投产，另外九个将于2022年投产。原油生产取决于地质条件、经济和项目时间表。未来石油市场仍存在不确定性，因此未来项目的时间表可能会相应改变。
飓风是墨西哥湾预报中的一个关键因素。大西洋飓风季节通常是6月1日至11月30日。尽管有8个新项目已于去年开始生产原油，但由于与新冠疫情有关的封锁和有记录以来最活跃的大西洋飓风季节，年产量低于2019年的水平。去年10月飓风德尔塔（Hurricane Delta）在两天内关闭了160万桶石油产量，这是飓风季节关闭石油产量的最高峰值。然而，热带风暴马可（Marco）和飓风劳拉（Laura）的共同影响导致了15天的停产，这使飓风德尔塔的停产总量增加了一倍多，造成了自2008年以来最多的停产。
科罗拉多州立大学的季节性飓风预报预测，2021年大西洋飓风季节将高于40年来的平均水平。该大学估计有8场飓风和17场命名风暴。美国国家海洋和大气管理局将于5月发布2021年大西洋飓风季节展望。飓风对墨西哥湾石油和天然气行业的实际影响难以确定，因为飓风路径对影响的大小有重大影响。飓风路径直到天气模式建立才能确定，这发生在飓风袭击前几天。
为了在STEO中预测飓风停工，我们使用历史数据来确定大西洋飓风季节停工的平均百分比。从历史上看，大多数GOM关闭都发生在10月。去年，与飓风有关的破坏活动比八月份的热带风暴Marco和Laura飓风开始的时间要早。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下：
Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil Production Will Increase with New Projects in 2021 and 2022
EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production in the U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to increase in the next two years, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). By the end of 2022, 13 new projects could account for about 12% of total GOM crude oil production, or about 200,000 bpd.
The GOM accounts for 15%–16% of U.S. crude oil production. In 2020, GOM crude oil production averaged 1.65 million b/d. Production is forecast to exceed 2020 levels, reaching 1.71 million b/d in 2021 and 1.75 MMbpd in 2022. Since 2000, the highest crude oil production year was 2019 at 1.9 MMbpd.
Large offshore projects take several years to develop. Four of the new projects will likely begin production in 2021 and nine more in 2022, according to Rystad Energy. Crude oil production is subject to geologic conditions, economics, and project timelines. The future oil markets still remain uncertain, so future projects' timelines may change accordingly.
Hurricanes are a critical element in the GOM forecast. The Atlantic hurricane season is typically June 1–November 30. Although eight new projects started crude oil production in 2020, annual production was lower than 2019 levels because of pandemic-related shut-ins and the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. Hurricane Delta shut in 1.6 million barrels of oil production over two days in October, the highest peak shut-in of the hurricane season. However, the combined effects of Tropical Storm Marco, followed quickly by Hurricane Laura, led to 15 days of shut-ins, which more than doubled the total shut-in production from Hurricane Delta and resulted in the most shut-ins since 2008.
Colorado State University’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting forecasts that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average, compared with the 40-year average. The university estimates 8 hurricanes and 17 named storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for 2021 in May. A hurricane’s actual impact on the GOM oil and natural gas industry is challenging to determine because the hurricane path has a significant effect on the size of the impact. Hurricane paths cannot be determined until the weather pattern is established, which happens days before the hurricane hits.
To forecast hurricane outages in STEO, we use historical data to determine an average percentage of outages for the Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, most GOM shut-ins occur in October. In 2020, hurricane-related disruptions started earlier than normal with Tropical Storm Marco and Hurricane Laura in August.
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