据今日油价4月19日报道，随着经济逐步恢复，石油需求开始恢复正常，石油和天然气行业目前正处于一个小型繁荣周期。石油市场再次处于乐观情绪中，上周三，石油期货交易大幅走高，此前美国政府报告周库存第三周下降，而国际能源署(IEA)发布了2021年乐观的石油报告。在去年石油需求减少870万桶/天之后，IEA当前预计，2021年全球石油需求将增加570万桶/天，至9670万桶/天。
然而，对于许多美国页岩油气生产商来说，仍然没有什么值得高兴的，申请破产保护的数量创下了纪录。根据能源和重组律师事务所Haynes and Boone的数据，北美石油生产商第一季度的破产数量攀升至2016年以来的最高水平，能源公司仍在努力从2020年油价暴跌的重创中复苏。
Haynes and Boone报告称，在2021年第一季度，北美有8家油气生产商破产，这是自2016年第一季度17家公司破产以来一季度第二高的数字。要知道，2016年第一季度是美国原油期货在疫情爆发前，最近一次跌破30美元/桶。
不过，原油价格已从一年前的低点反弹，WTI原油上周五的交易价格约为每桶63美元，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶67美元。
陷入困境的多为小公司
这次最大的不同是，较小的油气生产商似乎是主要的受害者，因为今年一季度的总债务仅为18亿美元，仅次于2019年第一季度的16亿美元，是第一季度债务总额第二低的。
从某些角度来看，去年申请破产的美国能源公司持有530亿美元的总债务，这是自2016年以来的第二高水平，2016的总债务达到了568亿美元。
正如预期的那样，德州的破产申请数占到一半。HighPoint资源公司是最大的债务持有者，拥有9.05亿美元的有担保和无担保债务。
除了油气生产商，共有5家油田服务公司也申请了破产，其中offshore drilling Seadrill Ltd承担了该行业72亿美元债务的大部分。
需求存在乐观的拐点
幸运的是，随着能源需求前景较几个月前大幅改善，许多生产商和油田服务公司已经达到了一个拐点。
上周，IEA发布了一份2021年石油需求乐观报告，将2021年全球石油需求上调23万桶/天，至9670万桶/天，较2020年水平增加570万桶/天。这个数据是根据令人鼓舞的经济指标进行上调的，尽管该机构表示，由于关键消费地区的新冠肺炎病例激增，经济复苏态势仍很脆弱。
此外，在4月份更新的《世界经济展望》中，国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2021年和2022年的全球GDP增长预测分别上调至6%和4.4%。
由于迅速推出疫苗和巨额刺激计划，美国获得了最大的上调幅度。据彭博社报道，美国迄今为止推出了世界上最快的疫苗推广计划，这为美国经济的全面重新开放奠定了良好的基础。最新的疫苗接种率为每天3053566剂，这意味着在短短三个月内，它可以覆盖75%的人口，也就是所谓的群体免疫人数。
IEA表示，最大的需求增长将出现在今年下半年，强劲的需求增长需要每天额外增加200万桶原油，以保持市场供应充足。
与此同时，摩根大通估计，二叠纪Delaware盆地的石油钻探商现在只需要约33美元/桶的油价，就可以在2019年达到40美元/桶的水平，实现收支平衡。摩根大通表示，在目前的油价下，大多数美国运营商都是获利的，许多运营商甚至可能在下半年增加活动，并在2022年建立强劲的增长势头。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Oil And Gas Bankruptcies Jump Despite Rise In Crude Prices
The oil and gas sector is currently enjoying a mini-boom cycle as economies gradually re-open and oil demand begins to return to a semblance of normalcy. The oil markets are in an upbeat mood once again, with oil futures trading sharply higher on Wednesday after the U.S. government reported a third-weekly drop in weekly inventories while the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bullish oil report for 2021. After declining 8.7 mb/d last year, the IEA now expects world oil demand to expand by 5.7 mb/d in 2021 to 96.7 mb/d.
For many U.S. shale producers, however, there's still little to cheer about, with record numbers filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
According to Energy and restructuring law firm Haynes and Boone, bankruptcies by North American oil producers climbed to the highest first-quarter level since 2016 as energy firms continue to struggle to recover from the carnage of the oil price crash in 2020.
Haynes and Boone has reported there were eight bankruptcies by North American oil and gas producers in Q1 2021, the second-highest figure for a first-quarter ever since 17 were reported for Q1 2016, the last time U.S. crude futures dipped under $30 a barrel over the past decade.
Crude prices have bounced back from year-ago lows, with WTI trading around $63 a barrel on Friday while Brent is changing hands at $67 a barrel.
Small firms in trouble
The big difference this time around is that smaller producers appear to be the main victims, with just $1.8 billion in aggregate debt for the quarter, the second-lowest Q1 total after $1.6 billion in Q1 2019.
For some perspective, consider that last year, U.S. energy companies that filed for bankruptcy held $53 billion in aggregate debt, the second-highest total since 2016 when debt totaled $56.8 billion.
As expected, Texas continues to be well represented, with half of the bankruptcy filers coming from that region.
HighPoint Resources Corp. (NYSE:HPR) was the largest debt-holder to file, with $905 million in secured and unsecured debt.
Apart from oil and gas producers, a total of five oilfield service companies also filed for bankruptcy, with offshore driller Seadrill Ltd (OTCQX:SDRL) accountING for most of the sector's $7.2 billion debt.
Inflection point
Luckily, many producers and oilfield services companies have reached an inflection point, with the energy demand outlook considerably improved from just a few months ago.
Last week, the IEA issued a bullish oil report for 2021 whereby it revised up global oil demand in 2021 by 230,000 b/d to 96.7 mb/d, good for a 5.7 mb/d increase from 2020 levels. The energy watchdog has based the upgrade on encouraging economic indicators though it says recovery remains fragile due to surging Covid-19 cases in key consumer regions.
For instance, in its April update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its forecast for global GDP growth for 2021 and 2022 to +6% and +4.4%, respectively.
The United States received the biggest upgrade thanks to its swift vaccine rollout and hefty stimulus packages. The United States has so far unveiled the world's fastest vaccine rollout as per Bloomberg, placing itself in a good position for a full re-opening of the economy. The latest vaccination rate stands at 3,053,566 doses per day, meaning it could cover 75% of the population, or the so-called herd immunity number, in just three months.
The IEA says the biggest demand growth will come in the latter half of the current year with strong demand growth requiring an additional 2 mb/d of extra crude to keep the markets well supplied.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan has estimated that Permian's Delaware Basin oil drillers now require oil prices of just ~$33/bbl to break even down from $40/bbl in 2019. JPM says most U.S. onshore operators are economic at current oil prices, and many operators are even likely to ramp up activity in H2 and build solid momentum for higher volumes in 2022.
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