据油价网2021年4月14日报道，全球石油需求高峰已经到来又过去了吗?这是一个非常难回答的问题。有一些专家毫不含糊地说，是的。他们声称，由于疫情对全球石油需求的毁灭性打击，以及全球向清洁能源的不断升级的转型，石油需求峰值已经到来。
不管全球石油需求已经见顶或者在疫情期间已趋于稳定，不可否认的事实是在全球社会能够完全脱碳——不管你问谁，这一目标还有很长的路要走——目前，世界在未来仍将烧掉更多的石油。
彭博市场本周报道称，“预计未来几十年，全球将消耗数千亿桶石油。”“这给了像道达尔公司和荷兰皇家壳牌公司这样的石油巨头，以及数百家仍在运营的小型勘探公司足够的动力，继续在世界前沿寻找下一个可以发挥钻头作用的地方。”实际上，法国超级石油巨头道达尔公司预计不日将获得一个数十亿美元的新项目的批准，这个项目将钻探乌干达和坦桑尼亚两国尚未开发的油田。道达尔公司将在东非投资51亿美元，包括沿乌干达艾伯特湖海岸线的油气钻探作业，以及建设一条1443公里(897英里)长的加热管道，将开采出来的含蜡原油输送到坦桑尼亚的坦加港，并从那里出口。
这对环保主义者和主张“把石油埋在地下”的人来说是一个令人震惊的消息。早在2015年，发表在《自然》杂志上的一项同行评议的实证研究发现，为了避免气候变化的最坏影响，世界上至少80%的已知化石燃料储量必须保持不开采。这一数字包括美国90%以上的煤炭和北极地区100%的石油和天然气储量。
到目前为止，这一立场仍相对属于环保主义者的范畴。英国石油公司迄今是唯一一家已明确承认石油时代已经结束的石油巨头，承认在不久的将来，石油需求增长将不再是常态。
彭博市场报道称，“业内其他公司仍预计，在全球石油需求达到峰值之前，石油需求至少还会再增长10年左右。”“就连对前景不那么乐观的英国石油公司也表明，全球石油使用量将会大幅增加。”根据英国石油公司“一切照旧”的模式，石油需求保持稳定，而减少石油行业碳排放的进展甚微或根本没有，仅到2050年前，全球在未来30年内将消耗1.1万亿桶石油。
好消息是，在未来几十年，所有这些化石燃料燃烧产生的部分碳排放可以被抵消或捕获。通过公共和私营部门共同努力扩大碳捕获计划，从现在到实现100%可再生能源的长期目标，石油行业对全球碳足迹的贡献可以在一定程度上减少。在这十年里，世界能源工业所发生的一切对世界生态的未来有着极其重要的意义。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The World Still Needs Hundreds Of Billions Of Barrels Of Oil
Has peak oil demand already come and gone? That’s an exceptionally hard question to answer. There are some experts that say unequivocally, yes. They claim that peak oil is already upon us, thanks to the crushing blow that the Covid-19 pandemic dealt to global oil demand as well as the ever-escalating worldwide transition toward clean energy. But there are just as many who say that the world’s thirst for oil still has a long way to go before we hear its swan song.
Regardless of whether oil demand has peaked or plateaued during the pandemic, what is undeniably true is that the world is going to burn a whole lot more oil in the future before the global community is able to decarbonize entirely - a goal that is still a long, long way off, no matter who you ask.
“The world is expected to burn hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in the coming decades,” Bloomberg Markets reported this week. “That gives plenty of incentive for giants like Total or Royal Dutch Shell Plc, plus the hundreds of smaller explorers that remain in business, to keep searching the world’s frontiers for the next place to sink their drill bits.” Indeed, French supermajor Total SE is expected to get approval for a new multibillion-dollar project over the coming weekend that would drill into as yet untapped oil fields in Uganda and Tanzania. Total’s East African venture will cost around $5.1 billion and involve drilling along the shoreline of Lake Albert in Uganda, as well as constructing a 1,443-kilometer (897-mile) heated pipeline to deliver the extracted waxy crude to Tanzania’s port of Tanga, from where it will be exported.
This is an alarming bit of news for environmentalists and advocates of “keeping it in the ground.” Back in 2015, a peer-reviewed empirical study published in the journal Nature found that in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change, at least 80 percent of the known fossil fuel reserves in the world would have to remain unextracted. (That figure includes over 90 percent of U.S. coal and a full 100 percent of arctic oil and gas reserves).
So far, that stance has remained relatively relegated to environmentalist spheres. To date, BP Plc is the one and only oil major that has explicitly acknowledged the end of the oil era, conceding that demand growth will no longer be the norm in the very near future. “The rest of the industry still expects at least another decade or so of demand growth before the global need for oil maxes out,” Bloomberg Markets reports. “And even BP’s less bullish outlook shows a world where a lot more petroleum will be used.” According to BP’s “business as usual” model, in which oil demand stays steady and there is little or no progress to reduce the industry’s carbon emissions, an additional 1.1 trillion barrels of oil will have been consumed in the next 30 years, by just 2050.
The good news is that some of the carbon produced by the combustion of all those fossil fuels in the coming decades can be offset or captured. With concerted combined efforts from the public and private sectors to scale up carbon capture initiatives, the oil industry’s contribution to the global carbon footprint can be lessened to some degree in the time between now and the long-term goal of 100 percent renewable energy.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
