据今日油价网站4月14日消息 伯克利实验室的一项最新研究显示，美国电力行业的排放量比15年前预计的水平减少了52%，拜登政府的目标是到2035年使电网脱碳。
能源部劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的最新研究分析了历史趋势和EIA对电力行业排放量的预测，以了解取得了多大进展。
伯克利实验室科学家Ryan Wiser是这项研究的主要负责人，他说：“照常预测，从2005年到2020年，二氧化碳年排放量将从24亿公吨上升到30亿公吨，但2020年的实际排放量降至仅14.5亿吨。美国将电力行业的排放量削减了52%，低于预期水平。”
研究显示，与15年前的预测相比，技术进步和低碳政策是减排的关键驱动力。
这项研究称，这种对排放趋势的新看法表明，电力行业有可能进一步大幅减排。
Ryan Wiser告诉彭博社记者：“人们经常担心，能源转型需要一个世纪，或者至少几十年。事实上，我们已经走了一半。”
伯克利实验室的报告称，尽管如此，挑战依然存在，包括基础设施建设和建立大规模经济可行的能源储存，以确保可靠的电力供应，而可再生能源在发电量中所占份额将高得多。
在过去几年中，很大一部分减排是由于燃煤能力的不断退役，而天然气是另一种化石燃料，但它燃烧起来比煤更清洁。
2020年，天然气占美国公用事业规模发电的最大份额，为40.3%，化石燃料占60.3%，煤炭占电力结构的19.3%。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
The U.S. Power Sector Has Reduced Emissions By 52%
The U.S. power sector has reduced emissions by 52 percent from levels projected 15 years ago, and is now “halfway to zero,” a New Berkeley Lab study showed, as the Biden Administration is targeting to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035.
The new research from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) analyzed historical trends and EIA’s projections for emissions in the power sector to see how much progress has been made.
“Business-as-usual projections saw annual carbon dioxide emissions rising from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, who is the lead author of the study. “But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 MMT. The U.S. cut power sector emissions by 52% below projected levels – we are now ‘halfway to zero.’”
Technology advancement and low-carbon policies were the key drivers in the reduction of the emissions compared to the forecasts made 15 years ago, according to the study.
The research says that this new look at the emissions trends shows that further large reductions in emissions in the power sector are possible.
“There’s often this concern that energy transitions take a century, or at least decades,” Wiser told Bloomberg. “The fact that we’ve marched halfway there is an impressive story,” he added.
Still, challenges remain, including in infrastructure and building up massive economically viable energy storage to ensure reliable power supply when renewables will have a much higher share of generation, Berkeley Lab’s report says.
A large part of the emissions reductions over the past years were due to the continuous coal-fired capacity retirements, at the expense of natural gas—another fossil fuel which, however, burns cleaner than coal.
Natural gas accounted for the largest share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2020, at 40.3 percent, with fossil fuels at 60.3 percent share, also due to coal’s 19.3-percent share of the power mix.
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