据Oil & Gas Journal网站4月15日消息 国际能源署（IEA）在最新的月度石油市场报告中称，将2021年全球石油需求增长预测上调23万桶/日。继去年全球石油需求下降870万桶/日后，预计2021年全球石油需求将增加570万桶/日，达到9670万桶/日。
上调的背后是宏观经济前景的改善，以及更强劲的即时指标。在4月份更新的《世界经济展望》中，国际货币基金组织将2021年和2022年全球GDP增长预测分别上调至+6%和+4.4%，但指出复苏存在分歧，且存在高度不确定性。毫不奇怪，最大的增长是美国，考虑到其迅速推出疫苗和即将出台的巨额刺激计划。 然而，对需求增长复苏力度的担忧依然挥之不去，欧洲以及印度和巴西等一些主要石油消费国的COVID-19病例数量激增。
在美国关闭的石油产量从寒流中恢复后，3月份世界石油供应增加了170万桶/日，达到9290万桶/日。美国、巴西的生物燃料的进一步增长将提振4月份的全球供应，而参与欧佩克+减产计划的产油国将继续限制石油供应。根据国际能源机构的预测，非欧佩克成员国在2020年减少130万桶/日后，2021年将增加61万桶/日。美国供应量将在2020年下降60万桶/日后再下降10万桶/日。
初步数据显示，经合组织（OECD）3月份石油库存在连续7个月平仓后基本持稳。2月份，经合组织石油库存减少5580万桶（200万桶/日）。石油库存总量为29.77亿桶，比2016-2020年的平均水平高出2800万桶，比一年前高出9400万桶。
原油基准从3月中旬的22个月高点回落，布伦特和WTI上一交易日分别在63美元/桶和60美元/桶左右。
王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal
原文如下：
IEA revised up 2021 global oil demand growth forecast
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised up its 2021 global oil demand growth forecast by 230,000 b/d. Following a decline of 8.7 million b/d last year, world oil demand is now expected to expand by 5.7 million b/d in 2021 to 96.7 million b/d.
The upward revision was backed by improved macroeconomic outlook, along with stronger prompt indicators. In its April update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its forecasts for 2021 and 2022 global GDP growth to +6% and +4.4%, respectively, but noted divergent recoveries and a high degree of uncertainty. Not surprisingly, the biggest upgrade was for the US, given its swift vaccine rollout and hefty stimulus packages on the way.
There are still lingering concerns over the strength of the recovery in demand growth, however, with the number of COVID-19 cases surging in Europe and some major oil consuming countries such as India and Brazil.
World oil supply rose 1.7 million b/d in March to 92.9 million b/d after shut-in US output recovered from a cold snap. Further gains from the US, Brazil, and biofuels are set to lift global supply in April, while producers taking part in OPEC+ cuts continue to limit flows. According to IEA forecasts, non-OPEC+ will see gains of 610,000 b/d in 2021 after a 1.3 million b/d drop in 2020. US supply is set to fall 100,000 b/d after a 600,000 b/d loss in 2020.
Preliminary data suggest OECD oil stocks held largely steady in March, following seven consecutive months of draws. In February, OECD oil inventories fell by 55.8 million bbl, or 2 million b/d. At 2,977 million bbl, total oil stocks were 28 million bbl above the 2016-2020 average, but 94 million bbl higher than a year ago.
Crude oil benchmarks retreated from their 22-month highs of mid-March, with Brent and WTI last trading at around $63/bbl and $60/bbl, respectively.
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