据全球能源新闻网4月24日报道，在交通运输和其他依赖石油的行业中，电气化的应用正在加速，并将比我们之前的预测更快地消耗石油。由于这一转变，雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）将其石油需求峰值预测下调至1.016亿桶/日，这一峰值将在2026年出现，比预期的要早，在2030年后降至1亿桶/日以下之前趋于平稳。
在最新的基本情况下，石油需求将主要被不断增长的电动汽车(EV)市场削弱。
据雷斯塔能源预测，在塑料回收、石化部门中氢的使用量增加、电力、农业和海事部门中石油的替代等领域，会出现结构性变化，有些变化是突然的，有些变化是缓慢的。从长远来看其他行业中期仍将迎来旺盛的石油需求，如卡车、海运和石化、航空等，我们看到，喷气燃料与生物喷气燃料等非石油燃料的替代相当可观，而生物喷气燃料仍然是整个液体产品领域的一部分。我们可以看到，非石油燃料(如生物燃料)正在大量替代航空燃料，而生物燃料仍然是整个液体产品领域的一部分。
雷斯塔能源公司的石油市场分析师索非亚·圭迪·迪·桑特表示，石油需求将分三个阶段演变。到2025年，石油需求仍然受到新冠疫情影响，电动汽车的发展仍然缓慢，然后从2025-2035年，结构性下降和替代影响（特别是卡车）占据主导地位，最后，到2050年，塑料的回收和海运技术的加速将是最后一个过渡阶段，就我们的平均情况而言，2050年石油需求将进一步下降到5100万桶/日。
•占石油需求48%以上的道路运输(乘用车、公交车和货运)将是石油转型的最终驱动力。最快的转型已经在电动乘用车领域展开，目前占全球汽车销量的6%，但到2025年将达到23%，然后到2050年加速达到96%。
•占石油总需求的18%的卡车，短期内不会实现电气化，但当在2030年代中期被采用并开始达到临界量时，替代影响将比燃料较少的小型车辆要高得多。电动卡车将受益于乘用车已经建立的技术基础。公共汽车也将逐步从石油柴油转向电动和生物燃料。到2025年，电动卡车的市场份额将上升至6%，2030年为21%，2040年为61%。
•占石油总需求14%的石油化工产品，随着全球人均塑料消费量的增长，预计将至少持续增长到21世纪30年代中期。正如在玻璃和金属中观察到的那样，随着塑料回收率从目前的有效回收率5%趋向于75-80%，需求达到峰值，与此同时，氢源原料从目前的不足1%上升到2030年LDPE、HDPE、PP和PVC塑料生产的原始石化原料的30%。
•占需求的6%的海运，预计至少在21世纪30年代中期以石油为主，之后我们预计将转向液化天然气、氢气、电池和其他碳中性船舶，尤其是在新建船舶中。随着IMO 2020的到来，这一领域已经经历了一个巨大的转变，从高硫燃料转向超低硫燃料。
•占石油需求的比重不到7%的航空业，由于没有可行的石油替代技术存在，预计航空业将持续增长到2050年。生物航空燃料的逐步引入将限制纯煤油航空燃料的需求增长，但除非引入可行的替代技术，否则不会影响到2050年航空业的强劲增长。
•其他行业(农业、能源自身使用、自身能源使用、工业、建筑和电力行业)继续呈下降趋势。不断增长的农业和能源自用需求部分抵消了电力中石油消耗的加速下降。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
AS ELECTRIFICATION IN TRANSPORT ACCELERATES OIL DEMAND MAY PEAK IN 2026
The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast. As a result of this transition, Rystad Energy is downgrading its peak oil demand forecast to 101.6 million barrels per day (bpd), a pinnacle that will come in 2026, earlier than thought, plateauing before falling below 100 million bpd after 2030.
In its updated base case, oil demand will be whittled away mainly by a growing electric vehicle (EV) market.
Rystad forecasts tectonic shifts – some sudden and others slowly evolving – in plastics recycling, a growing share of hydrogen in the petrochemical sector, and oil substitution in power, agriculture, and maritime sectors. Other sectors will still see thriving oil demand in the mid-term, such as trucks, maritime and petrochemicals, and aviation in the long term, where we see a sizable substitution of jet fuel with non-petroleum fuels such as bio-jet fuel, which is still part of the overall liquids products universe.
“Oil demand will evolve in three phases. Through 2025, oil demand is still affected by Covid-19 impacts and EVs are still slow to take off, then from 2025-2035, structural declines and substitution impacts -especially in trucks – take hold, and then finally, towards 2050, the recycling of plastics and accelerated technologies in maritime will be the final transition leg bringing oil demand further down towards 51 million bpd in 2050 in our Mean Case,“ says Sofia Guidi Di Sante, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.
• Road transport (passenger vehicles, buses and freight), which makes up over 48% of oil demand, will be the ultimate driver of the transition. The swiftest transition is already well underway in the electric passenger vehicle sector, which currently makes up 6% of global vehicle sales, but will account for 23% by 2025 and then accelerate towards 96% penetration by 2050.
• Trucks, which account for 18% of total demand, will not electrify in the short-term, but when the adoption occurs in the mid-2030s and begins reaching critical mass, the substitution impact will be much higher on a per-unit basis compared to smaller vehicles that use less fuel. EV trucks will benefit from the technology groundwork already being established in passenger vehicles. Buses will also see a gradual transition from petroleum diesel to electric and biofuels. The EV truck market share will rise to 6% in 2025, 21% in 2030, and 61% in 2040.
• Petrochemicals, which make up 14% of total oil demand, are expected to grow until at least the mid-2030s as plastics consumption per capita grows worldwide. The demand then peaks as plastics recycling rates converge towards 75-80%, as observed in glass and metals, from the current effective rate of 5%, at the same time as hydrogen-sourced feedstock picks up from less than 1% today to 30% of the virgin petrochemical feedstock for LDPE, HDPE, PP and PVC plastics production in 2030.
• Maritime, which makes up 6% of demand, is expected to be dominated by oil for at least through the mid-2030s, after which we expect to see switching to LNG, hydrogen, electric batteries, and other carbon-neutral vessels, especially in newbuilds. This sector already underwent a big transition with IMO 2020, which saw the switching from high-sulfur fuel to ultra-low sulfur fuel.
• Aviation, which makes up less than 7% of oil demand, is expected to continue to grow until 2050 as no viable oil substitution technology exists. The gradual introduction of bio-jet fuel will limit pure kerosene jet fuel demand growth but will not affect the strong upward trajectory in aviation through 2050, unless a viable alternative technology is introduced.
• Other sectors (agriculture, energy own use, own energy use, industry, buildings, and power generation) continue a downward sloping trajectory. Growing agriculture and energy own use demand partially offset the accelerated decline of oil consumption in power.
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