据天然气加工4月21日消息，欧盟排放许可价格的飙升，正鼓励更多德国公用事业公司在发电时从重碳煤炭转向天然气，这可能会加速德国淘汰这种高污染燃料的进程。
欧盟的排放交易系统(ETS)是控制温室气体排放的主要工具，它对发电厂和工厂每排放一吨二氧化碳收取费用。
由于去年排放许可的成本上升了28%，德国的硬煤发电量下降了6%，褐煤发电量下降了11%。虽然这在一定程度上反映了与疫情有关的需求下降，但天然气发电量基本持平。
自去年12月欧盟领导人同意在本十年内制定更雄心勃勃的减排目标以来，该计划中欧盟碳配额的基准价格进一步上涨了45％。
这促使投机者争相取得碳排放许可，他们押注立法者将扩大碳补偿的需求，将价格推高至每吨45欧元的创纪录高位。
较高的碳价格增加了硬煤电厂的运营成本，使得它们与燃气发电厂相比利润更低。一些发电机已经改用燃气发电，燃烧时排放的二氧化碳更少。
对于那些无法转换燃料或亏损运营的企业，许可成本会通过更高的电价转嫁给消费者。
在德国电力市场，自去年11月以来，所谓的“清洁黑暗”和“清洁火花”的来年价差——分别有效衡量燃煤电厂和燃气电厂的运营成本——已有所扩大。
燃料和碳之间的成本差距也打击了德国的褐煤工厂，这些工厂依赖的燃料通常比天然气和硬煤更便宜。
3月初，1995年以前建造的褐煤电厂(碳效率最低的电厂)的远期合同首次出现赤字成本。
ICIS分析师马库斯·费迪南德表示，碳价格上涨令许多行业参与者措手不及，因为相对于其他燃料来源而言，褐煤价格较低，其低价已经使许多人将褐煤视为中短期的“安全赌注”。
他补充说，在欧盟的几个国家，煤和褐煤仍是主要燃料来源，要想在这些国家保持竞争力，运营商需要看到煤和褐煤的价格相对于天然气大幅下降，才能缩小差距。
一些分析人士认为，价格上涨最终将导致煤炭和褐煤能源更快地逐步淘汰，目前德国和波兰分别定于2038年和2040年停止使用。
如果硬煤电厂以更快的速度关闭，而又没有其他替代能源来满足通常由传统供应保证的电力需求，未来可能会出现供应紧张。
咨询公司Volue的分析师Espen Andreassen表示：“随着我们逐渐脱离煤炭，加上建设燃气电厂的前景未知或存在风险，我们预计许多国家将面临供应安全问题。”
裘寅 编译自 天然气加工
原文如下：
High carbon prices prompt coal-to-gas fuel switching
The soaring price of European Union emissions permits is encouraging more utilities to switch to natural gas from carbon-heavy coal to generate electricity in Germany, potentially speeding up its phase-out of the highly polluting fuel.
The EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS), its main tool for curbing greenhouse gas emissions, charges power plants and factories for each tonne of carbon dioxide they emit.
As the cost of emissions permits rose 28% last year, power generation from hard coal in Germany fell 6% and output from brown coal slid 11%. While that in part reflected a pandemic-related drop in demand, generation from gas remained broadly flat.
The benchmark price of EU carbon allowances in the scheme has risen a further 45% since a December meeting when EU leaders agreed a more ambitious emissions cut target this decade.
That prompted a scramble for permits among speculators betting lawmakers would extend the need for carbon offsetting, pushing prices to record highs of 45 euros a tonne.
The higher carbon price has increased the cost of operating hard coal plants, making them less profitable to run compared to gas equivalents. Some generators have switched to gas, which emits less carbon dioxide when burnt.
For those not able to switch fuels or operate at a loss, permit costs are passed on to the consumer through higher power prices.
In the German power market, the difference between the so-called "clean dark" and "clean spark" year-ahead spreads - which effectively measure the cost of operating coal-fired and gas-fired plants respectively - has widened since last November.
The cost gap between fuels and carbon has also hit brown coal, or lignite, plants in Germany, which are dependent on a usually cheaper fuel source than both gas and hard coal.
In early March, forward contracts for power produced by lignite plants built pre-1995 - the least carbon efficient - went into a deficit cost for the first time.
The rising carbon price has caught a lot of industrial players off guard, as its low price relative to other fuel sources had made many see lignite as a "safe bet" in the short to mid-term, said ICIS analyst Marcus Ferdinand.
For coal and lignite to stay competitive in the several EU countries where it remains a main fuel source, operators would need to see the price of the fuel drastically drop in comparison to gas in order to tighten the spread, he added.
Some analysts see rising prices eventually leading to a faster phase-out of coal and lignite power sources, which are currently due to come offline in 2038 in Germany and in 2040 in Poland.
If hard coal plants shut down at a faster pace and there are no alternatives in place to meet power demand normally assured by conventional supply, there could be a supply squeeze further down the line.
"As we are moving away from coal, and with unknown or risky outlooks (for) building gas-fired plants, we expect many countries to run into security of supply problems," said Espen Andreassen, an analyst at consultancy Volue.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
