据路透社4月21日报道，但投资者们在面对印度等国新冠肺炎病例激增的问题上存在分歧，不少人押注美国和其他发达市场的经济复苏，因此，虽然油价下跌，但周四，全球股市上涨。
随着疫苗接种率上升，以及对疫情感到疲倦的民众接受用更大的自由行动来推动经济的增长，摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)最广泛的全球股指上涨0.3%，在近期小幅下跌后，距离历史收盘高位不到1%。
Amundi首席投资长Pascal Blanque在给客户的报告中称："夏季财报季将进一步测试复苏的走势，但在那之前，疫苗的推出和经济的重新开放将是本轮牛市进一步上扬的主要诱因。"
随着欧洲央行(ecb)召开政策会议，欧洲主要股指上涨。斯托克欧洲600指数上涨0.5%，雀巢(Nestle)和沃尔沃(Volvo)的乐观业绩也提振了该指数。
法国兴业银行(Societe General)交叉资产策略师Alain Bokobza在给客户的报告中写道:“市场目前处于新冠肺炎疫情卷土重来、疫苗接种率快速提升和经济复苏的十字路口。我们的整体立场没有改变，也就是说，当前经济还没有恢复繁荣状态。信贷风险仍在控制之中，因此风险资产应会继续走高……现在就坚持冒险吧。”
在欧洲股市开盘走高之前，亚洲股市连夜上涨，日本日经225指数上涨2.4%，摩根士丹利资本国际除日本外亚太地区股指上涨0.3%。美国股市期货开盘小幅走低，下跌0.1%，尽管距离历史高点仅咫尺之遥。
尽管股市普遍乐观，但在印度和日本新冠肺炎疫情卷土重来、美国股市近期意外上涨后，另一项与经济增长预期相关的资产——石油价格下跌，打压了市场人气。
美国原油期货价格下跌0.5%，至每桶61.04美元，欧洲基准布伦特原油价格下跌0.6%，至每桶64.95美元。
乐天证券商品分析师Satoru Yoshida表示："美国库存意外大幅增加，引发市场对需求疲弱的担忧，这与需求强劲复苏的预期相反。影响市场人气的还有新冠肺炎疫情再次在印度和日本快速蔓延的事实。”
美国国债收益率依然低迷，但脱离盘中低点，基准10年期国债收益率周四报1.564%。作为欧元区基准的德国10年期国债收益率也有所下降，最后持平于-0.26%。
在外汇市场，美元兑一篮子主要货币最后持平。欧元兑美元上涨0.1%，至1.205美元，距离3月3日以来的最高汇率不远。自4月初以来，欧元兑美元升值幅度高达3%。
尽管欧洲央行会议对欧元影响不大，预计不会有任何变化，但交易商将关注有关经济状况的积极言论，以及可能缩减购债规模的任何迹象。
Spreadex金融分析师康纳?坎贝尔表示:“欧洲央行预计不会做出任何举动，分析师预计拉加德(Christine Lagarde)将继续保持稳定。但在下次会议之前，欧洲央行可以利用这个机会加强其前瞻性的指导。鸽派中也潜伏着鹰派，这意味着这次会议可能不会像预期的那样顺利。”
王佳晶 摘译自 路透社
原文如下：
Global stocks eye new high on growth hopes, oil ebbs on COVID-19 fears
Global stocks ground higher while oil ebbed on Thursday as investors diverged over whether to bet on economic recovery in the United States and other developed markets or worry about a surge in COVID-19 cases in India and elsewhere.
With vaccination rates rising and pandemic-weary citizens embracing more freedoms to drive growth in some major economies, MSCI’s broadest global gauge of stocks was up 0.3%, trading within 1% of its all-time closing high after a recent mini sell-off.
“The summer earnings season will further test the trajectory of the recovery, but until then, vaccines rollout and economic reopening will be the main triggers for a further upside leg in this bull run,” Amundi Chief Investment Officer Pascal Blanque said in a note to clients.
With the European Central Bank holding a policy meeting, Europe’s top indexes posted stronger gains. The broad STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.5%, also bolstered by upbeat earnings from Nestle and Volvo.
“Markets are currently a tale of three Vs - standing at a crossroads of virus evolution, vaccination rates and v-shaped recoveries,” Societe General cross-asset strategist Alain Bokobza wrote in a note to clients.
“Our overall stance is unchanged, i.e., no exuberance yet. Credit risk remains under control, so risk assets should continue to ride high... Stick to risk for now.”
The buoyant start to the European day followed overnight gains in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.4% and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%.
U.S. stock futures pointed to a marginally lower open on Wall Street, down 0.1% albeit within touching distance of a record high.
Despite stocks being generally upbeat, oil - another asset geared to perceptions of economic growth - fell after a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan, and a recent surprise stock build in the United States, weighed on sentiment.
U.S. crude futures were down 0.5% at $61.04 per barrel while European benchmark Brent was down 0.6% at $64.95.
“An unexpected and high increase in U.S. inventories fuelled concerns over weak demand which came against expectations for a strong recovery in demand,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.
“What is hurting market sentiment is also the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading again at a fast pace in India and Japan.”
U.S. Treasury yields stayed depressed but moved off intra-day lows, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes at 1.5644% on Thursday.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark of the euro area also dipped and was last trading flat at -0.26%.
In currency markets, the dollar last traded flat against a basket of major peers.
The euro was up 0.1% at $1.205, not far from its strongest since March 3. The common currency has gained as much as 3% against the dollar since the start of April.
While the euro is expected to be little moved by the ECB meeting, with no change expected, traders will be looking out for positive words about the state of the economy and any hints that its bond purchases could be tapered.
“The European Central Bank isn’t expected to ruffle any feathers this Thursday, with analysts predicting that it will be another steady session from Christine Lagarde and Co,” said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.
“But with a while until the next meeting – the central bank skips May – the ECB could use this opportunity to sharpen its forward guidance. There are also hawks lurking among the doves, meaning the get-together may not go as smoothly as forecast.”
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