据今日油价4月21日报道，一年的变化真是太大了!这似乎是当下一个老生常谈的话了，但去年4月因一系列意外“黑天鹅事件”而发生危机的石油市场，如今正随着美国经济的乐观前景在稳步向好。在此过程中，各国国内和全球原油的市场结构从巨大的正价差变成了现货溢价，当前，欧佩克+产油国正在放松减产，值得一提的是，减产政策已经实施了四年之久。
2020年4月20日，西德克萨斯中质原油在纽约商品交易所的价格转为负值，并前所未有的以负37.63美元的价格结算，因为恐慌的卖方被迫不惜一切代价抛售其持有的2020年5月到期的合约。震惊的市场观察人士很难接受花钱雇人买走自己石油的想法。石油市场崩溃了——沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的市场份额之战，百年一遇的疫情危机，以及美国创纪录的石油库存。这些不可能发生的事件不断发生，令人眼花缭乱。
更令人震惊的是，自那以后石油市场发生了显著的转变。今天，石油期货在60美元/桶的价格轻松交易，在新冠肺炎疫苗快速部署的推动下，世界上一些大型的经济体正在逐步重新开放，在经济合作与发展组织较富裕国家，政府的慷慨刺激措施对经济增长产生了积极影响。
根据国际能源署（IEA)的数据，随着全球石油需求的加快，对全球石油储备的担忧几乎已经消失，经合组织(OECD)的商业库存已经从2020年7月创纪录的2.49亿桶降至五年平均水平。尽管仍未走出困境，但已较一年前有显著好转，这让市场再次审视2020年上半年的石油市场危机。
首先是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的价格战危机。
当时，纽约商品交易所的美国原油基准合约一度变得毫无价值，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯不仅未能在欧佩克+会议上就减产达成一致，还决定向市场额外释放数百万桶原油。与此同时，全球石油需求直线下降，消费受到疫情的沉重打击。
双方都是不太可能合作的，它们的目标是从美国页岩油生产商手中夺取市场份额，但它们对自己的地位管理得非常糟糕。俄罗斯显然低估了2020年第一季度末第一波出行限制措施实行之后的燃料消耗崩溃。在那段被称为“黑色四月”的日子，全球石油需求从两个月前创纪录的1亿桶/天暴跌多达3500万桶。
雪上加霜的是，沙特下令增加原油产量，俄罗斯拒绝减产，引发了一场持续五周的市场份额争夺战。使得所有欧佩克成员国都面临着他们经济所依赖的石油市场的崩溃。幸好，最终欧佩克+产油国达成一致意见，将原油产量减少980万桶/天——约占全球石油产量的10%，参与这一历史性协议的国家减产了23%。
当时，几乎没有分析师能够预计，为拯救即将崩溃的市场而建立的联盟能维持这么长的时间。目前，俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯继续制约着约60%的产量。
也正是因为欧佩克+成功地推动全球石油市场接近平衡，并将原油价格推升至每桶60美元以上，欧佩克+如今的影响力比疫情爆发前更强。在最近一次会议上，欧佩克+同意在未来三个月逐步恢复部分产量，这反映了对全球经济乐观前景的预期。欧佩克+将于4月28日再次召开会议。
第二是前所未有的出行限制措施。
当全球疫情第一次爆发时，人们担心世界经济将滑入深度衰退(如果不是萧条的话)。在2020年春季实行出行限制措施期间，学校和被那些被认为是非必要的企业，大范围关闭，使需求枯竭，人们的生活偏离轨道。当时，全球最大的石油消费国——美国的汽油消费量徘徊在506.5万桶/天的创纪录低水平上。
在美国，事实证明，封锁地方和州经济对抑制经济活动和石油产品需求的效果较差。加州州长加文·纽森于2020年12月颁布的加州禁令基本上仍停留在纸面上，洛杉矶的高速公路上挤满了车辆，购物者蜂拥到商场进行最后一刻的假日购物。公众的疲劳和对隔离措施的不遵守，加上联邦政府通过直接刺激支付的慷慨，刺激了美国燃料消耗比预期更快的复苏。
到2020年8月，供应给美国市场的汽油达到疫情爆发前886.5万桶/天的水平，尽管部分经济体仍处于关闭状态。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）中较富裕的国家制定了一套刺激性的政策组合，以促进经济活动。大规模的支出计划，包括个人化的刺激支出、慷慨的失业救济金、对企业的贷款援助和抵押贷款减免等，不仅使经济摆脱衰退，而且推动了经济增长。自从疫情爆发以来，美国政府已经花费了近6万亿美元，而2008年金融危机之后，美国政府才批准了7000亿美元，这在疫情爆发前是无法想象的。
据估计，在疫情爆发的前9个月，美国家庭已经囤积了3万亿美元的“超额储蓄”，相当于每年消费者支出的十分之一。经合组织的一份展望报告预计，到2022年底，美国的人口规模将创纪录。
第三是疫苗的不断推广。
不可否认，当前复苏的主要推动力是疫苗的快速开发和分发，在不到一年的时间内已经生产和使用了数亿剂疫苗。自从辉瑞和德国合作伙伴BioNtech宣布他们的使用MRA技术的实验性疫苗在预防严重病例方面有95%的有效性以来，石油期货开始了长达5个月几乎不间断的上涨势头。
美国的疫苗接种运动在1月中旬左右加快了速度，从每天不到100万剂增加到目前的350万剂。该国继续向“群体免疫”迈进，迄今已注射了2亿多剂疫苗。
尽管第一季度的经济数据弱于预期，但国际能源署(IEA)预计，随着疫苗供应的增加以及各经济体继续开放，今年下半年全球需求将恢复到比疫情爆发前低3%的水平。
IEA所称的“黑色四月”是全球石油市场有史以来最黑暗的月份之一，一年过去了，石油市场基本面看起来已明显走强。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
A World Of Difference: One Year After Oil Prices Went Negative
What a difference a year makes! It might sound like a cliché, but the oil market that was turned on its head last April by a confluence of unexpected Black Swan events is trending higher alongside a rosy outlook for the U.S. economy. Along the way, the market structure for domestic and global crude oil turned from a yawning contango to backwardation, while the consortium of oil producers including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and nine additional countries, also known as OPEC+ are unwinding production cuts, which have been in place for more than four years.
On April 20, 2020 the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange turned negative and settled the historic day at a minus $37.63 bbl as panicked sellers were forced to dump their holdings of the expiring May 2020 contract at any cost. Stunned market observers had a difficult time wrapping their heads around the idea of paying someone to take your oil. Was oil trading breaking down in the jaws of a pandemic? Three events occurred leading to the great oil crash of April 2020 -- a market share war between Saudi Arabia and Russia; a once in a century pandemic; and record-high U.S. oil inventories. The improbable events, feeding upon themselves, occurred in dizzying quick succession.
Perhaps more stunning is the remarkable turnaround that has taken place in the oil market since then. Today, oil futures are comfortably trading in the $60s bbl, some of the largest economies around the world are gradually reopening, propelled by the fast deployment of COVID-19 vaccines and, in wealthier countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, generous government stimulus has had a positive impact on economic growth.
As global oil demand is picking up pace, concerns about securing oil storage worldwide have all but evaporated, with commercial inventories across the OECD already falling to their five-year average from an all-time peak at 249 million bbl in July 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.
While still not out of the woods, the remarkable turnaround over the last twelve months warrants another look at the oil market crisis during a tumultuous period for the industry during the first half of 2020.
Saudi Arabia and Russia
A few weeks before the U.S. crude benchmark contract on the NYMEX briefly became worthless, Saudi Arabia and Russia not only failed to agree on output cuts during the OPEC+ meeting but decided to unleash millions of barrels of additional crude oil onto the market. All this while global oil demand was plummeting, with consumption crushed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Both parties, unlikely partners married out of practicality with the goal to capture market share from U.S. shale producers, greatly mismanaged their positions. Russia clearly underestimated the collapse in fuel consumption following the first wave of shutdowns late in the first quarter 2020. Global oil demand plummeted as much as 35 million bpd in what is now referred to as "Black April" from a record-high 100 million bpd just two months prior.
A heated Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman allowed his emotions to dictate Saudi policy while ordering an increase in the kingdom's crude production, the opposite of what he was counseling Moscow on, triggering a five-week war for market share. By refusing to preemptively agree to production cuts, Russia ensured all OPEC+ members were facing a very real collapse by a market their economies depended upon.
U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between the crown prince and Vladimir Putin, with OPEC+ on April 12, 2020 agreeing to reduce crude oil production by 9.8 million bpd, about 10% of global oil production, with participants involved in the historic agreement cutting their output by 23%.
At the time, few analysts expected the alliance forged by the common goal to save the market from imminent collapse would hold up for as long as it did. Currently, Russia and Saudi Arabia continue to withhold about 60% of the production they decided to cut a year ago.
Bolstered by their success in moving the global oil market closer to balance, and with it pushing crude prices back above $60 bbl, OPEC's influence is stronger today than it had been prior to the pandemic. At their last meeting, inauspiciously held on April Fool’s Day, OPEC+ agreed to gradually restore a portion of their production over the next three months, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the global economy. OPEC+ meets again on April 28.
Unprecedented Policy
When the global pandemic first struck it was natural to fear that the world economy would slide into a deep recession if not depression. Economic controls implemented during the Spring 2020 lockdowns led to widespread shutdowns of schools and what were deemed nonessential businesses, sapping demand dry as life slipped further from normalcy. Consider that on this day a year ago gasoline consumption in the United States -- the world’s largest oil consumer -- was hovering just above a record low of 5.065 million bpd.
Locking down local and state economies proved less effective at curbing economic activity and, as such, demand for petroleum products. The California lockdown enacted by Governor Gavin Newsom in December 2020 remained largely on paper, with Los Angeles highways jammed with traffic and shoppers flocking to malls for last-minute holiday shopping. Public fatigue and eventual noncompliance with politically toxic quarantines along with federal largesse through direct stimulus payments spurred a faster-than-expected recovery in U.S. fuel consumption.
By August 2020, gasoline supplied to the U.S. market reached the pre-pandemic level of 8.865 million bpd despite parts of the economy remaining shut and new infections surging. Governments in rich OECD countries enacted a fiery policy mix to boost economic activity which did not require citizens to reengage in the larger economy. The massive payout schemes, including personalized stimulus checks, generous unemployment benefits, loan assistance for businesses and mortgage forbearance not only kept the economy out of recession, but fueled growth. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the U.S. government has spent almost $6 trillion compared with $700 billion authorized in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis 2008. The result was near unthinkable a year ago.
U.S. households are estimated to have stashed away $3 trillion in “excess savings” during the first nine months of the pandemic -- a tenth of annual consumer spending. An OECD outlook now expects the United States to be larger by the end of 2022 than it would have been if the pandemic never happened.
Vaccines
The main driver of the ongoing recovery is undeniably the rapid development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, with hundred of millions of doses already produced and administered in less than a year's time. Ever since Pfizer and German partner Biontech announced their experimental vaccine using MRA-technology was 95% effective in preventing severe cases of the disease, oil futures began their nearly uninterrupted five-month long uptrend.
The U.S. vaccination campaign accelerated around mid-January from a little under 1 million doses to the current 3.5 million doses pace administrated each day. The country continues to move closer to “herd immunity,” with over 200 million doses having been administrated so far.
Despite weaker-than-expected data in the first quarter, the International Energy Agency expects that global demand will recover to just 3% below its pre-crisis level in the second half of the year as vaccines become more available and economies continue to reopen.
A year on from what the IEA called “Black April”, one of the darkest months ever for world oil markets, fundamentals look decidedly stronger.
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