据油价网2021年4月20日报道，石油专家和全球著名商业咨询服务多元化提供商IHS Markit副董事长丹尼尔·耶金4月20日在接受CNBC记者采访时表示，全球石油需求复苏以及欧佩克+有大量备用产能没有回到市场意味着，从现在起的一年里油价预计将在每桶60和75美元之间交易是合乎情理的。
耶金在CNBC的节目“Street Signs Asia”中表示，“如果世界其他地区经济真的复苏，我认为油价将在每桶60-75美元区间交易是合理的。”
据这名石油专家所说，随着美国和中国经济强劲复苏，需求也将会反弹，但欧佩克+仍闲置的石油产能可能会抵消价格的任何超调。
耶金在评论一年后油价走势时说：“压力将会被抵消，更多供应将会进来，我们将开始看到美国再次重新恢复生产。”
一年前的今天，美国油价下跌。去年4月20日，WTI原油价格跌至零以下，收于每桶- 37美元，这是WTI原油期货合约自1983年开始交易以来首次跌至负值。去年4月21日，国际基准布伦特原油价格跌至每桶10美元以下，至9.12美元，是几十年来的最低日价格。
耶金对CNBC表示，展望未来，美国和中国的经济复苏意味着石油需求的反弹，尽管欧洲的不确定性仍取决于全球需求的复苏。
Yergin指出，今年夏天油价可能会像高盛预测的那样升至80美元，但这个油价随后可能会面临政治压力。
对于今年夏天的石油供应，高盛公司预计强劲的需求将要求欧佩克+在今年第三季度向市场再增加200万桶/日的原油供应，在此之前欧佩克+和沙特阿拉伯决定在5月至7月期间日恢复供应约200万桶石油。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)上周表示，今年夏季油价可能会停留在65- 70美元区间，由于美国钻井活动增加和伊朗可能恢复出口，该公司日前暂时调降了油价70美元的预估。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Yergin: Oil Prices Could Go As High As $75 In 2022
The global oil demand recovery and a lot of spare capacity that OPEC+ has yet to bring back to the market suggest it is reasonable to expect that oil prices will trade between $60 and $75 a barrel one year from now, oil expert and IHS Markit Vice Chairman, Daniel Yergin, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“If we really do have the rest of the world recover, I think it’s reasonable to think that oil would be in that $60 to $75 range,” Yergin told the CNBC program “Street Signs Asia.”
Demand is set to rebound with the United States and China recovering strongly, but the oil production capacity that OPEC+ still keeps offline would probably offset any overshoots in prices, according to the oil expert.
“There’ll be offsetting pressures, and more supply would come in and we’d start to see the U.S. coming back into production again,” Yergin said, commenting on where prices will be one year from now.
The comments came one year to the day after U.S. oil prices turned negative. On April 20, 2020, the price of WTI Crude crashed below zero to close at -$37 a barrel—the first time the WTI Crude futures contract had fallen below zero since trading began in 1983. On April 21, 2020, the international benchmark, Brent Crude, crashed to below $10 a barrel—at $9.12 per barrel, its lowest daily price in decades.
Going forward, the economic recovery in the U.S. and China point to oil demand rebounding, although the uncertainty over Europe still hangs on the global demand recovery, Yergin told CNBC.
Oil could go to as high as $80 this summer, as Goldman Sachs forecasts, but then political pressure against $80 oil could emerge, Yergin noted.
For this summer, Goldman Sachs anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.
Oil prices will likely be stuck in the $65-$70 range this summer, Morgan Stanley said last week, tempering its previous forecast for $70 oil with temporary overshoots because of rising U.S. drilling activity and the potential return of Iranian exports.
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