据今日油价5月5日报道，全球第三大石油进口国印度是最近的新冠肺炎疫情热点地区，该国每天新增病例的数量达到了创纪录的水平，这一结果削弱了石油需求，并压低了油价。
欧佩克+出于自身的需要，从供应方面干预了石油市场，在防止过剩石油库存在市场完全复苏前过度膨胀方面，取得了相对的成功，但印度激增的新冠肺炎病例阻止了油价更快地复苏。
这给欧佩克+施加了更大的压力，该组织被要求履职尽责以使石油行业达到市场预期。但毫无疑问，石油市场的趋势正在发生变化。事实上，近几个月来油价有所回升，绝大多数石油专家和分析师也认为这一趋势将持续下去。
但问题不在于市场是否会好转，问题是它会以多快的速度改善，复苏将在哪里达到顶峰。
欧洲的出行限制给油价带来了另一个未知因素。一个月前，欧洲延长了许多封锁限制措施，推迟了油价的回升。现在，由于印度正处于疫情爆发以来最严重的时期，不过，欧洲正准备解除这些封锁。欧盟官员提交了一份放宽27个国家夏季旅游限制的提案，这将增加对航空燃料的需求——这是原油需求的关键组成部分。
在美国，新冠肺炎病例也在减少，而接种疫苗的人数在增加。因此，包括纽约在内的美国几个州正在放松出行限制，所有这些都将对原油价格产生深远影响。
但这并不是说所有分析师都同意这些因素将对石油需求产生具体的某些影响，更不用说会将对油价产生什么具体的影响了。首先，国际能源署在4月14日上调了今年的石油需求展望。IEA估计，今年的石油需求将增加570万桶/天，达到9670万桶/天。此次上调的原因是该机构对两个世界上最大的石油进口国的石油需求预测有所增加。
截至4月6日，EIA则预计今年全球石油需求为9770万桶/天。与3月份布伦特原油价格接近65美元/桶相比，EIA认为布伦特原油价格不会有太大变动，预计2021年第二季度为65美元/桶，2021年下半年为61美元/桶，2022年甚至更糟，为60美元/桶。
就在一周前，Rystad Energy将4月份的石油需求调整为每日减少近60万桶。5月份，该公司将其产量下调了91.4万桶/天，理由是印度的需求问题无疑会导致新的库存过剩危机。
但并非所有人都如此悲观。高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为情况要乐观得多，今年夏天油价将高达每桶80美元。油价前景乐观的理由很简单——需求量即将发生的变化，而这种变化是供给无法比拟的，绝不能被低估。
Rystad分析师Louise Dickson称，无论印度是否陷入困境，从现在到6月底，石油需求仍将增加300万桶/天。未来几个月，油价应该会回到每桶70美元。
瑞银认为，疫苗的推出对石油行业来说是一个重大利好消息。据分析师Giovanni Staunovo称，随着人们恢复正常活动和经济业务的全面重新开放，石油需求将导致布伦特原油价格在下半年年升至75美元/桶。
穆迪对油价反弹的时机也持相当积极的看法，认为被压抑的消费者需求将推动全球经济复苏。但中期开来，价格区间仍被限制在每桶65美元。穆迪认为，经济复苏将加速石油需求的反弹，直至今年底和明年年初。
虽然石油行业的前景可能仍是不确定的，但目前的趋势可以肯定的是石油库存有望下降，这是石油需求增加的迹象，而欧佩克+将继续限制产量。以美国石油市场为例，商业原油库存最终回落至5年同期平均水平4.93亿桶。
印度的疫情爆发不会阻止油价回升，但它很可能会使复苏放缓到今年下半年，甚至明年年初至年中。
真是这样的话，欧佩克+成员国将需要很长一段时间来继续限制产量，与此同时，需求也将慢慢恢复。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Will Oil Hit $80 This Summer?
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, is the latest coronavirus hotspot. It has recently hit a record-breaking number of new daily coronavirus cases—a statistic that dented oil demand and pressured oil prices.
OPEC+, out of its own necessity, has intervened in the oil market on the supply side of the equation to offset the pandemic-depressed oil demand. And despite the group’s relative success at curbing oil production to prevent excess oil inventories from ballooning before the market fully recovers, India’s booming case counts have prevented oil prices from a quicker recovery.
This has put even more pressure on OPEC+ to perform to meet market expectations. But there is no doubt a shift in the momentum of the oil markets. Indeed, oil prices have recovered somewhat in recent months, and the overwhelming majority of oil experts and analysts think this trend will continue.
The question isn’t whether the market will improve. The question is how quickly will it improve, and where will that recovery peak.
Lockdowns in Europe add another unknown element into the oil price mix. A month ago, Europe renewed many of its lockdown restrictions, delaying the oil price recovery. But now, as India is in the midst of its worst COVID-19 surge since the pandemic began, Europe is getting ready to lift those lockdowns. EU officials have submitted this week a proposal to ease summer travel restrictions to its 27 nations. This will increase the demand for jet fuel—a critical component of crude demand.
In the United States, Covid-19 cases are also shrinking while the number of vaccinated grows. As a result, several U.S. states, including New York, are relaxing restrictions. All of this will have a profound effect on the price of crude oil.
But that’s not to say that all analysts agree on what this will do to oil demand, let alone what effect it will have on oil prices.
The IEA, for starters, revised up its oil demand outlook for this year on April 14. By its estimates, oil demand will now increase by 5.7 million bpd this year, reaching 96.7 million bpd. The reason for this upward revision was due to increases in the IEA’s oil demand forecast for the two largest oil importers in the world.
As of April 6, the EIA saw global oil demand at 97.7 million bpd this year. Compared to Brent prices that were near $65 per barrel in March, the EIA sees not much movement in the price of Brent, estimating $65/barrel in Q2 2021, $61 per barrel in H2 2021, and even worse--$60 per barrel in 2022.
Not even a week ago, Rystad Energy adjusted its oil demand for April down by almost 600,000 bpd. For the month of May, it revised it down by 914,000 bpd, citing India’s demand problems as a result of the pandemic—a situation that would no doubt result in a new inventory glut.
But not everyone is so pessimistic. Goldman Sachs sees things as much rosier, with oil reaching as much as $80 this summer. Its rationale for this positive outlook on oil prices is simple. “The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand—a change which supply cannot match—must not be understated.”
Rystad analyst Louise Dickson said that oil demand should still increase by 3 million bpd between now and the end of June, India troubles or no. According to her, oil prices should make their way back to $70 per barrel in the coming months.
UBS sees vaccine rollouts as a major positive for the oil industry. As people return to normal activities and businesses fully reopen, oil demand will cause Brent to increase to $75 per barrel in H2, according to analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Moody’s has a rather positive view of the timing of an oil price rebound as well, citing pent-up consumer demand that will propel forward a global economic recovery. But their medium-term price range is still capped at $65 per barrel. Moody’s sees this economic recovery as hastening a rebound in oil demand through the end of this year and the beginning of next year.
The outlook may be uncertain, but the current trend is definitely one of drawing down oil stocks—a sign of increased oil demand while OPEC+ continues to restrict output. In the highly visible U.S. oil market, for example, commercial crude inventories have finally retreated back to the five-year average for this time of year at 493 million barrels.
India’s virus explosion will not prevent an oil price recovery. But it very likely that it will slow the recovery well into the second half of this year or even the beginning to middle of next year.
If that turns out to be the case, that’s a long time for OPEC+ members to continue their output restrictions while demand takes its sweet time recovering.
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