据5月4日Oil Now报道，在近两周的时间里，印度每天新增超过30万例新冠肺炎病例，疫情危机日益严峻，可能会导致石油消费的前景在短期内恶化，不过，就长期看，今年晚些时候或将出现反弹。
印度石油工业联合会(FIPI)总干事Malhotra称："从目前的情况来看，可能需要几个月的时间，印度的疫情才能稳定下来。由于地区封锁限制了许多活动，二季度的石油市场不容乐观。”
印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)敦促各邦领导人将重点放在隔离区上，将区域性的封锁作为最后手段。由于担心疫情可能会变得更糟，许多省份计划实施封锁措施。
随着印度受到创纪录的新冠肺炎病例的打击，2021年印度石油需求将同比增长40万桶/天，较此前44万桶/天的增长预期有所下调。这个数字可能会再下调2万桶/天，但进一步的下调还要取决于未来几周的形势发展。
分析师Chris Midgley认为，“随着全球工业活动的复苏，印度将继续从强劲的世界经济中获益。石油需求可能在短期内放缓，但有足够的条件让我们相信，2021年下半年，石油消费将出现强劲复苏。”
作为世界第三大原油消费国和进口国，作为与圭亚那政府长期协议的一部分，印度表示有兴趣购买圭亚那的Liza原油，与有关部门以及商业实体合作，达成一项有利于原油进出口的协议。据了解，圭亚那还没有就向印度出口原油做出确切的决定，印度自然资源部长维克拉姆•巴拉特(Vickram Bharrat)表示，政府的主要目标是以市场价格出售其原油份额，从而使其回报最大化。
这个南美国家将成为拉丁美洲地区的主要产油国，到2027年产量将超过100万桶/天。
值得一提的是，印度的石油和天然气需求预计将增长近3倍，从2018年的2.29亿吨增加到2040年的6.07亿吨。
王佳晶 摘译自 Oil Now
原文如下：
India’s pandemic crisis won’t kill long-term oil demand, Liza Crude still on country’s radar
India has witnessed more than 300,000 new coronavirus cases per day for nearly two weeks in what is a growing humanitarian crisis that could see the outlook for oil consumption worsening in the short term, before rebounding later this year.
“Looking at the situation now, it could take a couple of months to stabilize,” Malhotra said. This quarter will be not so good for oil as regional lockdowns have restricted many activities. And there is more to come.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged leaders of the various states to focus on micro containment zones and use lockdowns only as a last resort. But many provinces are planning to implement regional lockdowns amid fears the situation could get worse.
Analytics has said that India would witness a year-on-year oil demand growth of 400,000 b/d in 2021, revised down from an earlier growth estimate of 440,000 b/d, as the country grapples with record COVID-19 cases.
Chris Midgley, , said last week that those numbers could possibly be revised down by another 20,000 b/d, but any further revision would depend on how the situation develops over the next few weeks.
But Midgley added that India would continue to reap the benefits of a robust world economy as industrial activity picks up across the globe. Oil demand could slow in the near term but there were enough conditions to believe that consumption would stage a robust recovery in the second half of 2021.
The world’s third-largest crude consumer and importer has expressed interest in buying Guyana’s Liza Crude as part of a long-term deal with the Guyanese government. The country is interested in working with authorities as well as commercial entities to forge an agreement that would facilitate these exports. OilNOW understands that no firm decision has yet been made by the Guyana government on crude exports to India. Natural Resources Minister, Vickram Bharrat, has told OilNOW the government’s primary objective is to sell its share of crude at market price where it will be able to maximise returns for the country.
The South American country is positioned to become a major oil producer in the Latin America region with output set to surpass the 1 million barrels per day mark by 2027.
India’s oil & gas demand is expected to increase nearly 3-fold from 229 million metric tons in 2018 to 607 million metric tons in 2040.
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