据世界石油4月27日消息，尽管印度感染病例激增，但随着全球需求从疫情中复苏，欧佩克及其盟国建议继续实施缓慢恢复石油生产的计划。
与会代表称，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯领导的委员会同意，该联盟可以跳过原定于周三举行的全面部长级会议，继续推进增加石油供应的计划。这个由23个国家组成的联盟计划在未来3个月重启约200万桶的日产量。
欧佩克+技术专家小组周一预测，尽管印度和巴西的疫情再次爆发有可能令复苏面临风险，今年全球石油消费量仍将强劲反弹600万桶/日。因此，去年需求暴跌时积累的石油库存过剩将在本季度末几乎消失。
欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴尔金多在推特发文称：“得知我们的领导帮助扭转了局势，我们对此感到欣慰。但与此同时，新冠疫情的持续提醒我们，我们不能偏离过去一年采取的谨慎、坚定的做法。”
欧佩克+联盟削减产量，以帮助全球石油业从去年前所未有的价格暴跌中复苏。随着经济活动的恢复，石油生产商现在正小心翼翼地重新启动这些供应，5月份的日产量增加了约60万桶。该组织目前每天闲置约800万桶原油，约占全球供应量的8%。
联合部长级监督委员会周二举行了正式会议，该提议正在通过欧佩克+的外交程序，以便获得每个成员国的批准，这一过程可能需要几小时。
俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周二表示，石油市场情绪乐观。尽管如此，他在俄罗斯国家电视台Rossiya 24仍表示，欧佩克+必须继续监测包括亚洲在内的许多地区的新冠疫情。伦敦原油价格上涨0.5%，接近每桶66美元。
欧佩克+的技术专家预计，今今年全球平均石油库存将以每天120万桶的速度下降。这比他们一个月前预测的每天减少80万桶的速度要快。因此，到本季度末，发达国家的库存盈余将减少到800万桶。
BP公司首席执行官伯纳德·鲁尼周二在接受彭博电视台采访时表示:“我们看到了令人难以置信的强劲需求。美国的需求几乎回到了疫情前水平，疫苗现在将在欧洲发挥作用。”
在世界第三大石油进口国印度，病毒感染正以创纪录的速度增长。据咨询公司OilX称，此次疫情可能使该国本月的燃油需求每日减少多达35万桶。但一名不愿透露姓名的欧佩克+高级代表称，就目前而言，美国的复苏弥补了印度较低的需求。
该代表称，若局势恶化，联盟可以迅速采取行动，因为现在大约每月定期召开会议。代表们表示，下一次会议定于6月1日举行。
加拿大皇家银行资本市场公司首席大宗商品策略师Helima Croft表示:“印度市场目前“乌云密布”。但即使印度的需求进一步恶化，他们也有迅速采取行动的机制。”
裘寅 编译自 世界石油
原文如下：
OPEC+ confirms plan to gently hike supply as demand recovers
OPEC and its allies recommended proceeding with plans to gently revive oil production as global demand recovers from the pandemic, despite surging infections in India.
A committee led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed the coalition can skip a full-scale ministerial meeting originally scheduled for Wednesday, and press on with its roadmap for increasing supply, delegates said. The 23-nation alliance intends to restart about 2 million barrels of daily output over the next three months.
World oil consumption will rebound by a vigorous 6 million barrels a day this year, though the recovery remains at risk from virus outbreaks in India and Brazil, a panel of OPEC+ technical experts forecast on Monday. As a result, the glut of oil inventories that amassed when demand collapsed last year will be almost gone by the end of this quarter.
“We can take comfort in knowing that our leadership has helped turn the tide,” Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said on Twitter. “But at the same time, the persistence of Covid-19 reminds us that this is no time to stray from the cautious and steadfast approach we have taken over the past year.”
The OPEC+ alliance slashed output to help revive the global oil industry from an unprecedented price rout last year when the pandemic crushed fuel demand. The producers are now carefully restarting those supplies as economic activity resumes, beginning with an increase of about 600,000 barrels a day in May. The group is currently idling about 8 million barrels a day, or roughly 8% of world supplies.
The proposal from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which formally met on Tuesday, was going through the OPEC+ diplomatic process so it could be rubber stamped by every member nation, a process that was likely to take a few hours.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday that there’s optimism in the oil market. Nevertheless, OPEC+ must keep monitoring the coronavirus situation across many regions, including Asia, he said on the state-run Rossiya 24 television network. Crude rose 0.5% to near $66 a barrel in London.
Global oil inventories will decline at a rate of 1.2 million barrels a day on average this year, technical experts at OPEC+ estimate. It’s a faster pace than the drawdown of 800,000 a day they projected a month ago. As a result, the stockpile surplus in developed nations will be whittled down to 8 million barrels by the end of the quarter.
“You’re seeing incredibly strong demand,” BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday. The U.S. is almost back there and “vaccines are going to kick in now in Europe.”
Virus infections in India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer, are increasing at a record pace. The outbreak could crimp the country’s fuel demand this month by as much as 350,000 barrels a day, according to consultant OilX. But for the time being, the recovery in the U.S. is eclipsing lower demand in India, said one senior OPEC+ delegate who asked not to be identified.
The coalition can move quickly if the situation deteriorates since it now meets regularly roughly every month, the delegate said. The next gathering is scheduled for June 1, delegates said.
“The dark cloud is India,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. But “even if Indian demand were to deteriorate further, they have a mechanism to act pretty quickly.”
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