据油价网4月27日消息，上世纪90年代末和本世纪初，埃及与国际伙伴合作，开始发展液化天然气行业。这使得Idku和Damietta电厂的产能分别增至720万吨/年和530万吨/年。然而，由于国内需求强劲，原料气的供应在一夜之间消失了，直到2012年，两家液化天然气工厂陷入停顿。埃及的命运在过去几年里有了显著的改善，Idku的重新启动。现在，在几乎9年的停顿后Damietta也开始重启了。尽管出现了积极的迹象，但挑战依然存在。
在过去十年中，埃及发现了几处主要的海上天然气资源，其中最大的是超大型佐尔(Zohr)气田，这改善了埃及的能源前景。自2018年Zohr开始生产以来，Idku工厂一直在出口。此外，埃及Dolphinus Holding公司和以色列德雷克钻井公司达成了一项具有里程碑意义的协议，并于2020年开始从以色列利维坦和塔玛尔海上气田进口更多天然气。这笔交易价值195亿美元，将在15年内购买850亿立方米的天然气。大部分天然气通过Idku工厂出口到国际市场。
Damietta的重启是埃及欲成为能源中心和出口国的又一重大成就。塞浦路斯还计划通过海底管道将其近海油田的原料气输送到埃及的两家液化厂。此外，还宣布了几项投标，以扩大在地中海、红海和西部沙漠的勘探活动，以进一步提高该国的国内生产能力。
但新冠疫情对埃及天然气行业造成沉重打击，严重影响出口。去年，Idku工厂的加工比前年减少了60%。不过，今年的初步数据要乐观得多。Cedigaz报告称，由于天然气价格高于30美元/英热单位，其出口量同比增长了3倍。受北亚冬季天气、其它地区生产问题以及巴拿马运河瓶颈等因素影响，现货市场价格在冬季创下纪录高位。
Damietta的重新启动是高价格和强劲需求的影响。苏运河大学(Sue Canal University)石油工程教授拉马丹·阿布·阿拉表示，“作为天然气出口中心，埃及将在该地区具有巨大的政治影响力，更不用说在疫情的影响下对经济产生积极影响。”
埃及能否成功成为能源中心和主要出口国，取决于国内因素和国际市场。国内市场仍然消耗大量的天然气，这再次意味着，由于需求的增长，该国在2025年后将无法出口液化天然气。开罗仍在努力改革国内补贴制度。贾斯汀·达金表示，“当我们比较埃及为上游市场提供的投资条款，以及其下游国内市场和液化天然气出口的价格时，存在一些分歧。”
此外，国际市场的价格可能会影响埃及出口的盈利能力，因为一些原料气来自昂贵的深水油田，成本在5-7 美元/英热单位之间。雷斯塔能源预计，埃及在满足国内需求的同时，能够出口一些过剩的天然气，直到2024年。据雷斯塔能源高级分析师Pranav Joshi称：“考虑到以色列向埃及的管道出口也从去年开始，将会有额外的天然气来自塔玛尔和利维坦气田。但我们认为其出口潜力非常短暂，可能只有5年。”
开罗正致力于增加其在类似盆地和地质条件下的勘探成功率，以提高其出口潜力。此外，现有的Idku和Damietta设施也是重要资产。然而，挑战是巨大的，并不能保证成功。
裘寅 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Egypt Restarts Major LNG Project On Rising Demand
in the late 90s of the previous century and early years of this century, Egypt in collaboration with international partners started the development of its LNG sector. This resulted in the Idku and Damietta plants with a capacity of 7.2 and 5.3 mtpa, respectively. However, the availability of feed gas evaporated overnight when domestic demand rose strongly until 2012 and the two LNG plants came to a standstill. Egypt’s fortunes have improved markedly the last couple of years resulting in Idku's restart. Now, also, Damietta has started working after almost nine years of inactivity. Despite the positive signs, challenges remain.
The discovery of several major offshore gas resources during the past decade, of which the supergiant Zohr gas field is the biggest, improved Egypt’s energy outlook. The Idku plant has been exporting since 2018 when production at Zohr started. Furthermore, Egyptian Dolphinus Holding and Israeli Delek Drilling struck a landmark agreement and started importing additional gas from Israel's Leviathan and Tamar offshore fields in 2020. The deal is worth an estimated $19.5 billion for the purchase of 85 bcm over 15 years. The majority of the gas is exported through the Idku plant to international markets.
The restart of the Damietta is another major achievement for Egypt which intends to become an energy hub and exporter. There are also plans to transport Cypriot feed gas from its offshore fields through subsea pipelines to the two Egyptian liquefaction plants. Furthermore, several bids were announced to expand exploration activities in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and the Western Desert to further increase the country’s domestic production capacity.
However, the Covid-19 pandemic dealt a heavy blow to Egypt’s gas industry which strongly affected exports. Last year, the Idku plant processed 60 percent less than the year before. The preliminary figures this year, however, are much rosier with Cedigaz reporting three times higher exports year on year due to prices above $30 MBtu. The spot market was hitting record prices in the winter due to a combination of winter weather in North Asia, production issues in other regions, and bottlenecks through the Panama Canal.
The restarting of Damietta is the effect of high prices and strong demand. According to Ramadan Abu al-Alaa, professor of petroleum engineering at Sue Canal University, "being a hub for gas exports, Egypt will have a great political weight in the region, not to mention positive economic impact amid the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic.
Whether Egypt succeeds in becoming an energy hub and major exporter, depends on domestic factors and international markets. The internal market still consumes vast amounts of gas which could, again, mean that the country won’t be able to export LNG somewhere after 2025 due to rising demand. Cairo is still grappling with the reform of the domestic subsidy system. According to Justin Dargin, “There is a bit of a divergence when we compare the investment terms that Egypt provides for its upstream market, and the prices for its downstream domestic market and LNG exports.”
Also, prices on the international market could impact the profitability of Egyptian exports as some of the feed gas comes from expensive deepwater fields which cost in the range of $5-7 MBtu. Rystad expects Egypt to meet domestic demand while exporting some surplus gas up until 2024. According to Pranav Joshi, a senior analyst at Rystad, "Considering that Israeli pipeline exports to Egypt also started last year, there will be extra gas from Tamar and Leviathan. But we are looking at the export potential to be very short-lived, maybe half-a-decade."
Cairo is aiming to increase its exploration successes in similar basins and geologies to improve its export potential. Also, the existing Idku and Damietta facilities are important assets. However, the challenges are significant and success is not guaranteed.
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