据5月7日Oil & Gas Journal报道，Rystad Energy表示，全球液化天然气（LNG）市场在2025年后继续扩张，但由于莫桑比克液化天然气项目可能推迟开发，市场将变得更加紧张，甚至可能出现供应短缺。
莫桑比克曾一度有望在2025年左右跻身全球液化天然气生产国的前列，但道达尔最近宣布的不可抗力标志着其莫桑比克陆上液化天然气综合设施存在无限期推迟的可能，加上受影响的Rovuma液化天然气项目，这两个项目每年的液化天然气生产能力为2800万吨。
在2026年至2030年期间，市场可能会减少多达900万吨/年的供应，从而破坏全球供需平衡。Rystad Energy此前预测，2026年的市场将基本平衡，但现在，对可用产量的竞争可能会更激烈，从而导致价格上行风险和更高的价格波动。
同样，如果Rovuma液化天然气1520万吨/年的潜在产能无法获得，原本预测的2027-2028年的宽松市场状况可能会变得更加平衡。最后，在2029年和2030年期间，由于预计全球液化天然气需求激增，市场可能再次吃紧，并面临供应短缺，因为Rovuma液化天然气可能要到2030年才能达到稳定产量。
在最新的预测中，由于莫桑比克两个项目的延迟，2026年预计将出现400万吨/年的供应过剩，低于之前预测的640万吨/年。影响将在2027年扩大，导致预期的供应过剩从之前的1590万吨/年缩减到1100万吨/年。最大的降幅发生在2028年，供应过剩被限制在仅100万吨/年，低于此前预测的930万吨/年。
如果预期的供应产能扩建延迟成为现实，2029年液化天然气供应将出现5.6百万桶/天的缺口，而不是之前预计的200万桶/天的过剩。这种影响将持续下去，但将从2030年开始趋于稳定，预计供应缺口为170万吨/年，而不是预期100万吨/年。
莫桑比克液化天然气(Mozambique LNG)和Rovuma液化天然气项目建设的延期让液化天然气的买家和卖家都感到警醒。莫桑比克拥有一个庞大的、低成本的资源基地，使其液化天然气项目具有很强的竞争力，而且该国地理位置便利，可以满足亚洲的需求。Rystad估计，莫桑比克LNG项目的盈亏平衡点为5-7美元/百万英热。
Rystad Energy预测，在新的再气化能力和更多天然气产能的推动下，需求将继续增长，从现在到2024年，液化天然气市场将日趋紧张，导致亚洲现货价格达到850美元/百万英热。
Rystad此前预计，随着大量液化项目的建设，2025年左右新一波供应进入市场，将形成价格下行周期，亚洲现货价格将降至接近2027年美国液化天然气5.7美元/百万英热的短期边际成本水平。然而，莫桑比克项目的潜在延误意味着，在2025年左右，出现长期紧张局面的风险越来越大。
因此，2025年亚洲现货价格可能会保持在8美元/百万英热以上。2026年至2029年期间的价格下行风险也因市场更为平衡而降低，虽然价格预计将下降，但到2027年价格保持在6美元/百万英热以上的可能性更大。
王佳晶 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal
原文如下：
LNG market faces supply deficit from decade-long impact of Mozambique delays
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, which was set to be constantly loose in the second part of this decade, is instead set to get tighter and could even see annual supply deficits because of likely delays in development of Mozambique LNG projects due to the country’s worsening security situation, Rystad Energy said.
Mozambique was once poised to rise to the upper ranks of global LNG producers by the middle the decade, but Total’s recent force majeure declaration signals indefinite delays on its onshore Mozambique LNG complex (OGJ Online, Apr. 26, 2021). The violent insurgencies also threaten ExxonMobil’s yet-to-be sanctioned Rovuma LNG. Together the two projects represent 28 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity.
The market could see up to 9 mtpa of supply removed between 2026 and 2030, disrupting global balances. Rystad Energy had previously forecasted a largely balanced market in 2026, but now there could be more competition for available volumes that year, leading to an upside risk in prices and higher price volatility.
Similarly, the loose market conditions of 2027-2028 that had been originally forecasted could become more balanced if Rovuma LNG’s 15.2 mtpa of potential capacity is unavailable. Finally, across 2029 and 2030, the market could tighten again and face supply deficits amid an expected surge in global LNG demand, as Rovuma LNG may only reach plateau production after 2030.
In an updated forecast, which accounts for delays in the two projects in Mozambique, an oversupply of 4 mtpa is expected in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 6.4 mtpa. The impact of the delays will grow in 2027, causing the expected oversupply to shrink to 11 mtpa from previously forecast 15.9 mtpa. The largest downgrade is for 2028, with oversupply being limited to just 1 mtpa, down from 9.3 mtpa in the previous forecast.
If the expected delays materialize, 2029 will see an LNG supply deficit of 5.6 mpta instead of a previously expected surplus of 2 mtpa. The effect will persist but will begin to level from 2030, with an expected supply deficit of 1.7 mtpa instead of a surplus of 1 mtpa.
Delays for Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG are sobering for LNG buyers and sellers alike. Mozambique has a large, low-cost resource base—making its LNG projects highly competitive—and the country is conveniently located to serve upcoming demand in Asia. Rystad estimates DES Asia break-evens of Mozambique’s LNG projects to be $5-7/MMbtu.
Rystad Energy forecasts a tightening LNG market between now and 2024 as demand continues to grow, driven by new regasification capacity and more gas-power generation, resulting in Asian spot prices reaching $8.5/MMbtu.
With a strong pipeline of liquefaction projects under construction, Rystad previously expected that a new wave of supplies coming into the market around 2025 would create a downward cycle in prices, with the Asian spot price dropping to a level closer to the short-run marginal cost of US LNG of $5.7/MMbtu in 2027. However, the potential delay of the Mozambican projects means that there is now an increasing risk of prolonged period of tightness midway through this decade, and that lower prices could be seen 1-2 years later than previously expected.
As a result, Asian spot prices could remain above $8/MMbtu in 2025. The downside risk in prices between 2026 and 2029 is also reduced by a better-balanced market – while prices are expected to decline, there is higher likelihood for them to remain above $6/MMbtu in 2027.
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