据5月6日Arab News报道，穆迪(Moody 's)估计，如果油价平均为每桶60美元，全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯今年的预算赤字可能降至国内生产总值(GDP)的5%以下。
去年，随着疫情爆发时油价暴跌，以及欧佩克+盟友沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间争夺市场份额的短暂油价大战，所有产油国的赤字都急剧膨胀。基于石油市场的形势，沙特王国被迫采取了一些不得人心的紧缩措施，包括将增值税提高三倍和取消公务员的所谓生活费津贴。
据国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，2020年沙特财政赤字占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例飙升至11.3%，而2019年为4.5%。
数据显示，今年，由于油价上涨，以及欧佩克+减产计划在全球需求增长的情况下逐步放松，沙特阿拉伯的赤字占GDP的比例将降至个位数，甚至低于5%。
周二的官方数据显示，沙特阿拉伯在2021年第一季度将赤字缩小至19.7亿美元(74亿沙特里亚尔)。相比之下，在2020年第二季度石油危机最严重的时候，沙特阿拉伯的赤字高达290亿美元。
穆迪副总裁、高级分析师Alexander Perjessy指出:“今年第一季度政府预算赤字相对于2020年第四季度的下降，主要是由于油价上涨和支出的季节性大幅下降。”
IMF在最新报告中称，预计沙特阿拉伯今年的财政赤字将降至GDP的4.2%。不过，IMF警告称，沙特阿拉伯需要继续进行结构性改革，以改善其财政状况。
IMF指出:“增值税上调、生活费补贴(COLA)取消、加大对资本支出效率的关注以及计划中的国内能源定价进一步的改革，都是计划中的财政调整的重要因素，不应逆转或推迟。”
王佳晶 摘译自 Arab News
原文如下：
Saudi Arabia Could Slash Deficit To Below 5% Of GDP At $60 Oil
The world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, could see its budget deficit drop to below 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year if oil prices average $60 per barrel, according to estimates from Moody’s carried by Arab News.
Last year, the deficits of all oil-producing nations ballooned as oil prices collapsed at the onset of the pandemic and during the short-lived oil price war for market share between OPEC+ allies Saudi Arabia and Russia. The Kingdom was forced by oil market circumstances to implement some unpopular austerity measures, including a triple increase in value-added tax (VAT) and the cancellation of so-called cost-of-living allowances for civil servants.
As per estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit soared to 11.3 percent of GDP in 2020, compared to a deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP in 2019.
This year, due to the higher oil prices and the gradual easing of the OPEC+ production cuts amid growing global demand, Saudi Arabia is set to bring its deficit to a single-digit percentage of GDP, and even below 5 percent, according to Moody’s.
Saudi Arabia narrowed its deficit to US$1.97 billion (7.4 billion Saudi riyals) in the first quarter of 2021, official data showed on Tuesday.
To compare, at the height of the oil crisis in the second quarter of 2020, Saudi Arabia’s deficit surged to as much as US$29 billion.
“The decline in the government budget deficit during the first quarter of this year relative to the fourth quarter of 2020 is mostly due to higher oil prices and a large seasonal drop in spending,” Alexander Perjessy, vice president, senior analyst at Moody’s, told Arab News.
The IMF, for its part, expects Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit to decline to 4.2 percent of GDP this year, the fund said in its latest report on the Kingdom earlier this week.
The fund, however, warned that Saudi Arabia needs to continue with structural reforms to improve its finances.
“The VAT rate increase, the removal of the Cost-of-Living Allowances (COLA), the increased focus on the efficiency of capital spending, and planned further domestic energy price reforms are all important contributors to the planned fiscal adjustment and should not be reversed or delayed,” the IMF noted.
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