据烃加工新闻5月5日消息称，多边发展金融机构阿拉伯石油投资公司（APICORP）在其《2021-2025年中东和北非地区能源投资展望》中估计，未来五年（2021年至2025年），中东和北非地区的总体规划和承诺投资将超过8050亿美元，比去年预测的7920亿美元增加130亿美元。
该报告将这一温和增长归因于几个因素:对全球GDP反弹的强劲信心、不断增长的能源需求、以及该地区可再生能源的加速发展。根据目前的估计，仅在2021年，中东和北非地区的太阳能装机容量就将增加3吉瓦，是2020年的两倍，未来5年将增加20吉瓦。
该地区的经济预测表明，大宗商品价格和出口将推动大多数中东和北非地区国家在2021年预期的反弹。
APICORP首席执行官Ahmed Ali Attiga博士说：“ APICORP的《2021-2025年中东和北非地区能源投资展望》表明，随着大多数中东和北非地区国家在2021年恢复GDP增长，能源转型没有放缓的迹象，能源行业在投资方面正进入一个相对稳定的时期。我们预计，在公共部门持续投资和需求上升的支持下，能源行业将从新冠肺炎大流行的影响中缓慢而稳定地复苏。”
预计2021-2025年中东和北非地区的承诺天然气投资总额将达到750亿美元，比之前的预期减少95亿美元。下降的原因是多个大型项目将在2020年完工，而且在天然气产能过剩的时代，各国对新项目的承诺更加谨慎。
卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克是中东和北非地区天然气投资最多的三个国家。
与此同时，2021-2025年计划投资保持相对稳定，为1330亿美元，表明一旦宏观环境改善，该地区有意恢复其天然气产能建设，尤其是特别是沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、阿曼和阿尔及利亚雄心勃勃的非常规天然气开发项目。
朱佳妮 摘译自 烃加工新闻
原文如下：
APICORP: MENA energy investments to exceed US$805 billion over next five years
The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP), a multilateral development financial institution, estimates in its MENA Energy Investment Outlook 2021-2025, that overall planned and committed investments in the MENA region will exceed US$805 billion over the next five years (2021–2025) – a US$13 billion increase from the US$792 billion estimate in last year’s five-year outlook.
The report attributes this modest rise to several factors: A strong confidence in the rebound of global GDP, rising energy demand, and the accelerated pace of renewables in the region. Per current estimates, MENA will add 3GW of installed solar power capacity in 2021 alone – double that of 2020 – and 20GW over the next five years.
The region’s economic forecasts suggest that commodity prices and exports will drive the rebound expected for most MENA countries in 2021.
Dr. Ahmed Ali Attiga, Chief Executive Officer of APICORP, said: “APICORP’s MENA Energy Investment Outlook 2021-2025 indicates that energy industries are entering a period of relative stability in terms of investments as most MENA countries return to GDP growth in 2021 and the energy transition showing no signs of slowing down. We anticipate a slow but steady recovery of the energy sector from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by continued investment from the public sector and an upswing in demand.”
Committed gas investments in MENA for the period 2021-2025 are expected to total US$75 billion – US$9.5 billion less than the previous outlook. The decline is attributed to the completion of several megaprojects in 2020 and countries being more cautious to new project commitments in an era of gas overcapacity.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are the top three MENA countries in terms of committed gas investments.
Planned investments meanwhile held relatively steady at US$133 billion for 2021-2025, signalling the region’s appetite for resuming its natural gas capacity build-up – particularly the ambitious unconventional gas developments in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Algeria – once macro conditions improve.
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