据彭博社5月7日报道，在世界上任何一条高速公路上行驶，都会看到无数的信息提醒着，石油巨头的主要产品价格正在上涨。而这个庞大行业的另一个领域——化工产品，正在放大运输燃料带来的通胀压力。
过去一年里，从塑料到油漆的所有建筑材料的成本都大幅上涨。这对埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)和荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell Plc)等公司来说是件好事，因为它们的石化部门刚刚实现了多年来的最大利润水平。
但这对消费者来说是个坏消息，因为从铜到木材等大宗商品的价格已经在试探创纪录高位。建筑和制造业的主要原料PVC和乙烯等材料的价格已升至至少7年来的最高水平，这是需求渐渐复苏，而供应中断等因素影响的结果。
Sanford C Bernstein Ltd的高级研究分析师Oswald Clint表示:“需求来自食品、包装、医疗用品和防护设备，这些会加剧通胀。”
今年油价稳步上涨，本周伦敦油价接近每桶70美元。原油价格上涨提振了石油巨头的勘探和生产部门的收益，其石化业务表现确实出众。
今年一季度，埃克森美孚从化工产品中获利14亿美元，超过了至少自2014年油价超过每桶100美元以来的任何一个季度。壳牌一季度调整后净利润为32.3亿美元，其中超过五分之一来自化工产品部门，为四年来最高水平。
许多石油公司都是赢家
销量飙升的不仅仅是石油巨头。与前一季度相比，印度信实工业(Reliance Industries Ltd.) 2021年一季度增长最快的部门是化工部门。
彭博社分析师迈纳(Jason Miner)表示，其他从这股热潮中脱颖而出的企业还包括巴西的Braskem SA、泰国的Indorama Ventures PCL、美国的Celanese Corp.、Dow Inc.和Lyondellbasell Industries NV，以及沙特的基础工业公司(Saudi Basic Industries Corp.)。
壳牌首席财务官杰西卡?乌尔(Jessica Uhl) 4月29日对投资者表示:“这是一个关于中间产品实力的故事。”这指的是从基础石化原料中提取的化合物。随着经济复苏，特别是亚洲经济的复苏，需求也在增长。例如，用于医疗设备和乳胶的苯乙烯单体的价格在第一季度超过了1000美元/吨，根据彭博社汇编的数据，2020年，荷兰鹿特丹港的这种化学品的平均价格约为每吨700美元。
信实工业上周在财报中表示，全球疫苗接种计划和大规模刺激计划提振了消费者信心，以及对医疗保健、包装、耐用消费品、纺织品和汽车的需求。该公司表示，印度对聚合物和聚酯的需求尤其强劲。
德克萨斯州或将面临困境
这不仅仅是一个关于强劲需求的故事，要知道，化工行业刚刚从几次重大供应中断中恢复过来。
去年美国墨西哥湾沿岸连续遭遇飓风袭击后，2月份出现了异常寒冷的天气，导致德克萨斯州大部分电网瘫痪，大型石化设施被迫关闭。两个月后，许多公司仍未恢复满负荷工作。
得益于德克萨斯州页岩产业繁荣带来的液化天然气(一种廉价的石化原料)业务发展，该地区已成为全球塑料贸易的主导力量。例如，北美是世界上最大的高密度聚乙烯生产地区，从洗发水瓶到滑雪板，高密度聚乙烯被广泛使用。同时也是最大的PVC出口地。
总部位于维也纳的咨询公司JBC Energy GmbH在一份报告中表示:“大范围的冰冻天气，给全球石化市场带来了冲击。”报告称，尽管几乎所有因天气原因而关闭的工厂都已恢复运营，但许多化工产品的库存仍很低，使价格居高不下。
根据数据和分析提供商ICIS的数据，乙烯的价格在3月份达到了每磅59.5美分的7年高点。当月，PVC价格达到创纪录的1625美元/吨。
就连再生塑料的需求也很高。据标普全球的数据，周三，用于饮料瓶和包装食品的聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)在欧洲西北部的价格达到了每吨1240欧元(合1495美元)的10年高点。
ICIS北美业务主管杰里米?帕福德(Jeremy Pafford)表示：“如果你能在风暴过后迅速恢复元气，就会发现市场迫切需要你的产品，且几乎愿意付出任何代价。”
埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦伍兹(Darren Woods)在与分析师的电话会议上表示，许多化工产品的紧张供应形势预计将持续到第二季度。Dow和Lyondellbasell表示，它们目前正在销售所有生产的产品，预计要到第三季度或第四季度才能重新补充库存。
帕福德指出，为了生产足够的化工产品来满足客户的需求，并开始重新建立库存，美国需要在没有任何进一步供应中断的情况下，度过需求“平淡”的4个月。
飓风季节即将来临
未来几个月，随着许多国家结束出行限制，被禁锢的消费者动用储蓄或经济刺激的支票，预计全球支出将大幅增长。与此同时，随着新冠肺炎新毒株在世界各地引发新的疫情，塑料医疗用品的高需求将继续存在。
咨询公司FGE分析师Armaan Ashraf表示："个人防护装备的需求不太可能很快消退，电子商务、零售、耐用品需求也可能在今年剩余时间里保持强劲。”
王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
Big Oil’s Fat Chemical Profits Signal Inflationary Double Whammy
Drive down any highway in the world and you’ll see countless reminders that the price of Big Oil’s primary product is rising. What’s less obvious is how the inflationary pressures from transport fuel are being amplified by another part of this sprawling industry -- chemicals.
The cost of the building blocks for everything from plastics to paint has surged over the past year. That’s great for companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, whose petrochemical units just earned their biggest profit in years.
But it’s unwelcome news for consumers as commodities from copper to lumber are already testing record highs. The price of materials like PVC and ethylene, staples of construction and manufacturing, have risen to the highest in at least seven years on a combination of pandemic-driven demand, the broader post-Covid recovery and once-in-a generation supply disruptions.
“The demand is coming from food, packaging, medical goods, protective equipment,” said Oswald Clint, senior research analysts at Sanford C Bernstein Ltd. “Does it add to inflation? Yes.”
Oil has advanced steadily this year, coming within a whisker of $70 a barrel in London this week. Yet even as higher crude prices boosted earnings from the oil majors’ exploration and production units, the performance of their petrochemical businesses really stood out.
In the first three months of this year, Exxon made $1.4 billion from chemicals, more than in any quarter since at least 2014, when oil prices were above $100 a barrel. More than a fifth of Shell’s $3.23 billion of adjusted net income for the period came from the division, the highest in four years.
Global Winners
It’s not just the oil majors seeing sales surge. Chemicals was the fastest growing unit at Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd. in the first three months of 2021, compared with the prior quarter.
Other winners from the boom include Brazil’s Braskem SA, Indorama Ventures PCL from Thailand, Celanese Corp., Dow Inc. and Lyondellbasell Industries NV in the U.S., and Saudi Basic Industries Corp., according to Jason Miner, Bloomberg Intelligence chemicals analyst.
“It’s a story of the strength of the intermediates,” Shell chief financial officer Jessica Uhl told investors on April 29, referring to compounds that are derived from basic petrochemical feedstocks. Demand is growing as the economy recovers, notably in Asia, she said.
For example, the price of styrene monomer -- used in medical devices and latex -- surpassed $1,000 a ton in the first quarter, Uhl said. The average price of the chemical at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands was about $700 a ton in 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The global vaccination drive and large stimulus packages are boosting consumer sentiment and demand from health care, packaging, consumer durables, textiles and automobiles, Reliance said in its earnings presentation last week. Demand for polymers and polyesters has been particularly strong in India, it said.
Trouble in Texas
This isn’t just a story about strong demand. The chemicals industry is also just coming back from several major supply disruptions.
Back-to-back hurricanes on the U.S. Gulf Coast last year were followed by unusually cold weather in February, which knocked out much of the electricity grid in Texas and forced giant petrochemical facilities to shut down. Two months later, many are still not back working at full-capacity.
The region has become a dominant player in the world’s plastics trade thanks to natural gas liquids -- a cheap petrochemical feedstock -- coming out of the Texas shale boom. For example, North America is the world’s biggest producer of high-density polyethylene, used in everything from shampoo bottles to snowboards. It’s also the largest exporter of PVC.
“The big freeze sent a shockwave through global petrochemical markets,” Vienna-based consultant JBC Energy GmbH said in a note. While almost all of the plants that were disabled by the weather have been brought back online, inventories of many chemicals are still low, keeping prices elevated, it said.
The price of ethylene, the chemical building block for everything from plastics to solvents, reached a seven-year high of 59.5 cents a pound in March, according to ICIS, a data and analytics provider. PVC reached a record high of $1,625 a ton that month.
Even recycled plastic is in high demand, with the price of polyethylene terephthalate, or PET, used for drinks bottles and packaged food, reaching a 10-year high of 1,240 euros ($1,495) a metric ton in northwest Europe on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Platts.
“If you were able to get back up and running quickly after the storm” you found a marketplace desperate for your product that “would almost pay any price to get it,” said Jeremy Pafford, head of North America at ICIS.
The tight supply and demand balance for many chemicals looks set to continue in the second quarter, Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said on a call with analysts last week. Dow and Lyondellbasell have said they are currently selling everything they produce and don’t anticipate being able to restock inventories until the third or fourth quarter.
To manufacture enough chemicals to satisfy customer demand and start building up its stockpiles again, the U.S. needs “four dull months” without any further disruption, said Pafford.
But hurricane season is just around the corner, and the global economy does not have time on its side.
The world is expected to see a surge in spending in the coming months as many countries end their lockdowns and cooped-up consumers dip into their savings or stimulus checks. That could happen alongside the continuation of pandemic-driven trends such as high demand for plastic medical goods as new strains of Covid-19 trigger fresh outbreaks around the world.
“Demand for personal protective equipment is unlikely to fade soon,” said Armaan Ashraf, an analyst at consultant FGE. “E-commerce, retail, durable goods demand is also likely to remain strong through the rest of this year as well.”
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