据今日油价网站5月6日消息 分析师表示，需求激增和新铜项目供应不足可能导致铜价在几年内跃升至每吨2万美元，是目前每吨1万美元左右的价格的两倍，这是10年来的最高水平。
对支持能源转型的关键矿物（包括铜）的需求激增，已使铜成为今年最热门的金属之一，价格跃升至每吨10000美元。由于全球对脱碳的推动以及政府对电动汽车（EV）和可再生能源发电的支持，比疫情前的水平翻了一番。
铜将是能源转型的关键金属，但国际能源署（IEA）在本周发布的新报告《关键矿产在清洁能源转型中的作用》中称，预计到2030年，现有矿山和在建项目的铜供应量将达到全球所需铜的80%左右，符合气候目标。
IEA表示，电网需要大量的铜和铝，铜是所有电力相关技术的基石。
然而，随着时间的推移，铜矿项目的资源质量正在下降。例如，IEA表示，智利的铜矿石平均品位在过去15年中下降了30%。铜项目的投资也落后于预期的需求激增。
这就是为什么美国对冲基金Livermore Partners的创始人兼董事总经理David Neuhauser本周在接受CNBC采访时表示：“铜是新的石油，这并不奇怪。”
Neuhauser告诉CNBC：“我认为铜是一种新的石油，而且我认为铜在未来5到10年内看起来作用巨大，每公吨的潜在价值将达到2万美元。”
几天前，美国银行在一份研究报告中表示，如果铜库存耗尽，最早在2025年，这种关键能源过渡金属的价格可能达到每吨2万美元。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Analysts: Copper Prices Could Double To $20,000 Per Ton
Surging demand and insufficient supply of new copper projects could result in copper prices jumping to $20,000 per metric ton in a few years, double the current price of around $10,000 per ton which is the highest in a decade, analysts say.
Soaring demand for critical minerals to support the energy transition, including copper, has already made copper one of the hottest metals this year, with prices jumping to $10,000 per ton, double from the pre-pandemic levels due to the global push toward decarbonization and government support for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable electricity generation.
Copper will be the key metal in the energy transition. But expected supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet around 80 percent of the copper the world will need by 2030 in a scenario consistent with climate goals, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its new report ‘The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions’ this week.
“Electricity networks need a huge amount of copper and aluminium, with copper being a cornerstone for all electricity-related technologies,” the IEA said.
However, the copper projects are seeing a decline in resource quality over time. For example, the IEA says, the average copper ore grade in Chile declined by 30 percent over the past 15 years. Investments in copper projects are also lagging behind the expected surge in demand.
That’s why it’s no surprise that David Neuhauser, founder and managing director of U.S. hedge fund Livermore Partners, told CNBC this week that “copper is the new oil.”
“I think copper is the new oil and I think copper, for the next five to 10 years, is going to look tremendous with the potential for $20,000 per metric ton,” Neuhauser told CNBC.
A few days ago, Bank of America said in a research note that if inventories of copper deplete, the price of the key energy transition metal could hit $20,000 per ton as early as 2025.
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