据路透社5月7日专栏报道，去年沙特-俄罗斯价格战和第一波疫情之后，美国石油库存飙升，目前已恢复正常。
上周，战略石油储备之外的原油和成品油总库存仅为1700万桶，比2015-2019年疫情爆发前五年的平均水平高出1.4%。
考虑到这两个时间序列的历史波动性，原油(700万桶)和成品油(1100万桶)的剩余盈余与5年平均水平相比并不显著。
自去年6月底达到峰值以来，原油(7500万桶)和成品油(1.01亿桶)的盈余已经减少(见5月5日美国能源信息署《石油现状周报》)。
由于欧佩克+和美国页岩油公司产量下降，以及石油消费的复苏，过剩的库存已经被吸收。
因此，布伦特原油现货价格目前的实际价格处于或略高于长期平均水平，反映了市场的再平衡。
布伦特原油的6个月期价差已进入明显的现货溢价，远高于其长期平均水平，因交易商预计今年下半年库存将通过平衡降至正常水平以下。
在美国墨西哥湾沿岸，作为北美主要的炼油中心和海运原油定价中心，商业原油库存仍约为1400万桶，较疫情爆发前五年的平均水平高出5%。
但该地区原油盈余较7月初的7600万桶(33%)有所减少，与五年平均水平相比的增幅也低于近年来的趋势。
墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂和储存终端与布伦特原油市场相连，因此当地油库的清空推高了现货价格和价差。
美国石油库存的减少是所有经合组织国家更广泛正常化的一部分。
在石油行业历史上最严重的生产过剩危机发生的13个月后，市场基本上已经恢复正常，比许多分析师当时的预测要快得多，但与之前的盛衰周期一致。
关键的例外是航空燃油市场，对国际客运航空的持续限制继续抑制全球每天数百万桶的石油消费。
最终的正常化，包括欧佩克+和美国页岩油生产商恢复疫情前的产量，取决于恢复客运航班的时间和规模。
裘寅 编译自 路透社
原文如下：
Column: U.S. petroleum stockpiles normalise after pandemic surge
U.S. petroleum inventories have returned to normal after ballooning during the Saudi-Russian volume war and first wave of the coronavirus epidemic last year.
Total stocks of crude oil and refined products outside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week were just 17 million barrels, or 1.4%, above the pre-epidemic five-year average for 2015-2019.
Small remaining surpluses to the five-year average in both crude (7 million barrels) and products (11 million barrels) were not significant given the historic volatility in both time series.
Surpluses in crude (75 million barrels) and products (101 million barrels) have shrunk since peaking at the end of June last year (“Weekly petroleum status report”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 5).
Excess stocks have been absorbed as a result of lower production by OPEC+ and U.S. shale firms, and the recovery in oil consumption.
In consequence, Brent spot prices are now trading at or slightly above their long-term average in real terms reflecting the rebalancing of the market.
And Brent’s six-month calendar spread has moved into a significant backwardation, well above its long-term average, as traders anticipate stocks will move through balance to below normal in the second half of the year.
On the U.S. Gulf Coast, the major refining hub and centre for seaborne oil pricing in North America, commercial crude stocks are still roughly 14 million barrels, or 5%, above the pre-epidemic five-year average.
But the regional surplus has shrunk from 76 million barrels or 33% in early July and the increase compared with the five-year average is below the trend in recent years.
Gulf Coast refineries and storage terminals are connected to the Brent market so the emptying of local tank farms has boosted spot prices and calendar spreads.
The reduction of petroleum inventories in the United States is part of a broader normalisation across all OECD countries.
Thirteen months after the worst overproduction crisis in the oil industry’s history, the market has largely returned to normal, much faster than many analysts predicted at the time, but in line with previous boom-bust cycles.
The critical exception is the market for jet fuel, where continued restrictions on international passenger aviation continue to depress global oil consumption by several million barrels per day.
Final normalisation, including a return to pre-epidemic production by OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers, depends on the timing and scale of a return to passenger flying.
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