据今日油价5月6日报道，基金经理们表示，由于对经济强劲反弹和全球原油需求上升的预期，他们对今年油价将继续大幅上涨的预期越来越有信心。
上周，对冲基金增持了两个半月以来最为看涨的原油期货头寸，原油期货净多头头寸升至6周以来的最高水平。
日益增长的人员流动性、经济的重新开放以及经济刺激方案都预示着强劲的经济增长，因此也预示着强劲的石油需求增长。低利率和美联储容忍通胀在一段时间内维持在略高于2%的水平，也暗示投资者和投机者将购买更多商品，包括石油，以对冲通胀风险。
对冲基金将目光投向印度未来几个月的经济复苏。这促使他们在截至4月27日的一周内连续第三周增加对油价的看涨押注。
总体而言，大宗商品价格处于10年来的最高水平。追踪包括石油在内的23种不同大宗商品价格的彭博商品现货指数周二创下2011年以来的最高水平。自2020年3月跌至四年低点以来，该指数已上涨逾70%。
虽然最近几周，有关石油进入超级周期的传言有所平息,但高盛等主要投行仍非常看好石油和大宗商品整体走势，预计强劲的经济增长和宽松的货币政策将有助于石油需求在未来6个月实现有史以来的最大增幅。高盛预计今年夏天油价将触及每桶80美元，并预计整个大宗商品市场在未来6个月内将再上涨13.5%。
今年夏天，各经济体重新开放，旅游人数增加，势必提振全球所有主要燃料的需求，包括汽油、柴油，甚至是航空燃料，不过，航空燃料的复苏是迄今为止最慢的。
Enterprise Products Partners董事兼联席首席执行官吉姆·蒂格(Jim Teague)在本周早些时候的第一季度财报电话会议上表示:“这是我人生中第一次认为交通堵塞很美妙。尽管经济复苏并不统一，但纵观全球最大的几个经济体，需求已经上升，所有迹象都显示，甚至欧洲也没有落后太多。”
对冲基金经理似乎也对需求将强劲反弹持乐观态度，他们最近几周的押注表明，尽管印度和巴西等大型发展中经济体遭遇挫折，但石油消费将上升。
通胀预期也可能吸引更多买家买入石油合约，因为投资者将购买更多大宗商品，以对冲其投资组合中的通胀风险。
美联储在上周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)声明中表示：“随着通胀持续低于这一长期目标，将致力于在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，从而使通胀在一段时间内乃至更长时间内平均达到2%。”
总而言之，虽然各经济体的石油需求复苏并不均衡，但包括美国、欧洲在内的多数经济体显示出今年有望大幅反弹的迹象，重燃基金经理对油价仍有涨至每桶70美元以上的信心。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Hedge Funds Bet On Higher Oil Prices
Money managers intimate a growing confidence that oil prices have room to run higher this year, thanks to expectations of a robust economic rebound and rising global demand for crude.
Last week, hedge funds added the most bullish positions in the oil complex in more than two and a half months, with the net long in crude oil futures jumping to the highest in six weeks.
Rising mobility, the reopening of the economies, and the stimulus packages all point to strong economic growth and consequently, strong oil demand growth. The low-interest rates and the tolerance of the Fed to let inflation run at a moderately above-2-percent level for some time also suggest that investors and speculators will buy more commodities, including oil, as a hedge against inflation.
Hedge funds are looking beyond the immediate COVID crisis in India toward economic recovery in the coming months. This has prompted them to add bullish bets on oil for a third consecutive week in the week to April 27.
Overall, commodities are at their highest in ten years. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index tracking prices for 23 different commodities, including oil, hit on Tuesday the highest since 2011. The index has rallied by over 70 percent since it hit a four-year low in March 2020.
Although talk of a supercycle in oil has subsided in recent weeks, major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs continue to be very bullish on oil and commodities as a whole, expecting strong economic growth and easy monetary policy to help oil demand to realize its biggest jump ever over the next six months. Goldman sees oil prices hitting $80 a barrel this summer and expects the entire commodity complex to rally by another 13.5 percent over the next six months.
Economies reopening and increased travel this summer are set to boost demand for all major fuels globally, including gasoline, diesel, and even jet fuel, which has shown the slowest recovery so far.
“For the first time in my life, I think traffic jams are beautiful,” Jim Teague, Director and Co-Chief Executive Officer at Enterprise Products Partners, said on the Q1 earnings call earlier this week.
“While economic recoveries aren’t uniform, when you look at the world’s largest economies, demand has moved up, and all indications are that even Europe isn’t far behind,” he added.
Optimism that demand will rebound strongly seem to be shared by hedge fund managers, who have shown with their bullish bets in recent weeks that oil consumption will rise despite the setbacks in large developing economies such as India and Brazil.
Inflationary expectations are also likely to attract more buyers into oil contracts as investors are set to buy more commodities to hedge against inflation risks in their portfolios.
“With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer?term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent,” the Fed said in its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement last week.
Oil demand recovery is uneven across economies, but most of those, including the United States, and now Europe, are showing signs that they are on track for a major rebound this year, rekindling confidence among money managers that oil prices still have room to rise beyond $70 a barrel.
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