据油价网2021年5月3日,莫斯科报道，彭博新闻社援引俄罗斯能源部公布的数据报道说，由于欧佩克+放松了减产措施，俄罗斯4月份的平均石油日产量为1046万桶，比3月份增加了1.9%。
在4月份之前，俄罗斯的石油产量配额曾两次提高，分别在2月份和3月份提高了6.5万桶/天。4月份的石油日产量减少了13万桶。据俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克称，从5月到7月，俄罗斯将进一步日增11.4万桶的石油产量。
欧佩克+将在5月至7月期间将石油日产量增加200万桶，表明其对需求改善的信心。
据塔斯社报道，俄罗斯能源部表示，减产是导致今年前4个月俄罗斯石油出口下降的因素之一。在过去4个月里，海外石油出货量下降了17.2%，仅4月份就下降了16.4%。
俄罗斯的石油产量从去年的创纪录高点下降，这是10年来的第一次，原因是俄罗斯加入了欧佩克+协议。现在，根据能源部的数据，俄罗斯石油产量可能永远无法恢复到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平。该部门表示，俄罗斯石油产量将在当前水平上有所改善，到2029年达到1110万桶/天，但随后开始下降，到2035年前降到940万桶/天。
由于这些预测，俄罗斯需要在有能力的时候将其石油财富货币化，或者，正如俄罗斯议会能源委员会主席今年早些时候所说的，“所有能生产的石油都应该在仍然有需求的时候生产出来。”
这是俄罗斯能源部提出的基本情况或最有可能的情况。在最乐观的情况下，俄罗斯石油产量将在2030年前达到1280万桶/天的峰值，然后才开始下降。无论哪种情况，产出的稳步下降迫在眉睫。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Russia Boosted Oil Production In April
Russia produced 10.46 million bpd last month, up by 1.9 percent on March as OPEC+ relaxed its production cuts, Bloomberg reports, citing data from Russia's Energy Ministry.
Russia's production quota had been upped twice before April, by 65,000 bpd in February and March. It was then relaxed by 130,000 bpd for April. From this month to July, Russia will further increase its output by 114,000 bpd, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
OPEC+ in total will increase its oil production by 2 million barrels daily between May and July, signaling its belief in improving demand.
The production cuts were among the factors that drove Russia's oil exports lower in the first four months of the year, the Energy Ministry said, as quoted by TASS. Shipments of oil abroad declined by 17.2 percent over the four-month period and by 16.4 percent in April alone.
Russia's oil production fell from record highs last year for the first time in a decade due to its participation in the OPEC+ pact. Now, according to the Energy Ministry, output may never recover to pre-pandemic levels. It will improve from current levels, the ministry said, reaching 11.1 million bpd by 2029 but then starting to decline, reaching 9.4 million bpd by 2035.
Because of these projections, Russia needs to monetize its oil wealth while it can, or, as the head of the energy committee at the Russian parliament put it earlier this year, "Everything that can be produced should be produced while there is still demand to sell it."
This is the base-case or most likely scenario developed by the Energy Ministry. In its best-case scenario, the ministry sees Russia's oil production hit a peak of 12.8 million bpd by 2030 and only then begin to decline. In either scenario, a steady decline in output is imminent.
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