据道琼斯5月6日消息，全球最大的大宗商品交易商之一的托克集团首席经济学家Saad Rahim在美国富瑞金融集团主办的一次电话会议上称，大宗商品价格还有更多上涨空间，因为我们还处于看涨周期的早期，一些关键的需求驱动因素尚未发挥作用。美国富瑞金融集团指出，导致市场趋于紧俏的关键基本面因素将是强劲的需求增长，特别是亚洲最大国家以外地区的需求增长，以及严重的供应限制，这意味着未来一至三年大宗商品价格有很大上行潜力。该投行表示：“Rahim解释了原因，可以说，当前出现短缺的风险更大，原因包括新项目的交货期延长、缺乏对增加供应的投资，以及非常乐观的需求前景。”
张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯
原文如下：
Global Commodities' Rally Is Far From Over, Trafigura Says
Commodity prices have more room to run, as we are still early in the bullish cycle and some key demand drivers haven't yet kicked in, Trafigura's chief economist Saad Rahim says in a call hosted by Jefferies. Key fundamentals tightening the market will be strong demand growth, especially outside the biggest country in Asia, and major supply constraints, which imply significant upside potential to prices over the next 1-3 years, Jefferies says. "Saad explained why...there is arguably a greater risk of shortages emerging today due to lengthening lead times for new projects, a lack of investment in supply growth, and a very positive demand outlook," the bank says. Trafigura is one of the largest commodity traders in the world.
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