据全球能源新闻网5月8日报道，被称为“石油巨头”的大型公司的已探明油气储量正在以惊人的速度下降，因为产量没有完全被新发现所取代。根据雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）的一项分析显示，去年石油巨头的地下储量减少了15%，剩余的储量将在不到15年内耗尽——除非这些公司能尽快发现更多的商业储量。
随着勘探投资的缩减和成功率的下降，这项任务变得越来越具有挑战性。探明储量的下降可能会给石油巨头(埃克森美孚、英国石油、壳牌、雪佛龙、道达尔和埃尼)在未来几年保持稳定的生产水平带来严重挑战。这将导致收入减少，并对这些公司能源转型计划的融资构成重大威胁。
石油巨头发现其已探明储量在2020年减少了130亿桶油当量，因为这些公司承担了巨额减值支出，而且今年的勘探也没有取得良好的开端。全球油气行业第一季度的发现量总计为12亿桶油当量，为七年来的最低水平，因为排名靠前的勘探远景区未能开采，而成功的初探油田只只获得了中等规模的发现。
新冠疫情导致的原油需求和价格暴跌，以及对资本纪律的日益关注，导致了投资削减，这可能会加剧许多大型运营商在努力提高已探明储量时面临的挑战。即使对于越来越关注能源转型的欧洲巨头来说，商业模式也将继续以油气销售为主。
雷斯塔能源负责上游研究的副总裁Parul Chopra表示，石油巨头未来创收的能力将继续取决于这些公司可供出售的石油和天然气的量。如果储量不足以维持生产水平，公司将发现难以为昂贵的能源转型项目提供资金，从而导致其清洁能源计划放缓。
•2020年，埃克森美孚的探明储量比2019年减少了70亿桶油当量，即30%。这主要是由于加拿大油砂和美国页岩气储量的减少。埃克森美孚在加拿大的液体探明储量从48亿桶石油调整为不到9亿桶，而与沥青相关的基尔和冷湖油砂项目的储量从38亿桶减少到不到1亿桶。此外，美国一些页岩油气的液态储量减少了10亿桶。
•去年，壳牌已探明储量下降20%，至90亿桶油当量。液态储量占总储量减少的三分之一，主要是美国和南美的项目，以及其它地区缺乏新发现的储量。天然气储量占减少量的三分之二，其中澳大利亚项目调整为6亿桶油当量。
•尽管雪佛龙通过收购来宝能源（Noble Energy）增加了约20亿桶油当量的已探明储量，但由于减值，雪佛龙仍遭受了储量损失。
•英国石油(BP)的探明总储量从2019年的190亿桶油当量下降到2020年的180亿桶油当量，主要原因是出售现有资产和缺乏重大新发现。
•道达尔和埃尼集团在过去十年中避免了探明储量的任何减少。
作为衡量一家公司勘探业绩指标的新发现的储量表明，石油巨头在维持储量基础和向现有客户供应石油方面面临巨大挑战。在过去的五年里，这六家石油巨头通过新发现的储量仅替代了45%的产量。埃克森美孚的表现好于同行，由于圭亚那近海Stabroek区块发现了90亿桶油当量，增加了70%以上的已开采储量。
去年，道达尔在圭亚那-苏里南盆地的勘探也取得了重大成功，而埃尼则得益于在非洲的成功。另一方面，雪佛龙和壳牌一直在努力登记新发现的储量。从2016年到2020年，雪佛龙仅替换了15%的产量，而壳牌则替换了27%。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
OIL AND GAS PROVEN RESERVES OF MAJOR COMPANIES ARE FALLING AT ALARMING RATE
The proven oil and gas reserves of the group of major companies called “Big Oil” are falling at an alarming rate, as produced volumes are not being fully replaced with new discoveries. A Rystad Energy analysis shows that Big Oil lost 15% of its stock levels in the ground last year, with remaining reserves set to run out in less than 15 years – unless the group makes more commercial discoveries, and fast.
The task is becoming more and more challenging as investments in exploration shrink and success rates slump. The declining proven reserves could create serious challenges for Big Oil (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total and Eni) to maintain stable production levels in coming years. This would in turn cause revenue to dwindle and pose a major threat to the financing of the group’s energy transition plans.
Big Oil saw its proven reserves drop by 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2020 as the companies took large impairment charges, and this year’s exploration has not come off to a great start either. The industry’s global first-quarter discovered volumes totaled 1.2 billion boe, the lowest in seven years, as high-ranked prospects failed to deliver and successful wildcats only yielded modest-sized finds.
The collapse in crude oil demand and prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic and an increased focus on capital discipline has led to investment cuts that could aggravate the challenge of many major operators as they strive to boost their proven reserves. Even for European majors, which are increasingly focusing on the energy transition, business models will continue to be dominated by the sale of oil and gas.
“The ability of Big Oil to generate future revenues will continue to depend on the volume of oil and gas the companies have at their disposal to sell. If reserves are not high enough to sustain production levels, companies will find it difficult to fund expensive energy transition projects, resulting in a slowdown of their clean energy plans,“ says Parul Chopra, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.
• ExxonMobil’s proven reserves shrank by 7 billion boe in 2020, or 30%, from 2019 levels. This was mainly due to reductions in Canadian oil sands and US shale gas properties. ExxonMobil’s proven reserves of liquids in Canada were revised from 4.8 billion barrels of oil to less than 900 million barrels, while bitumen-related reserves for the Kearl and Cold Lake oil sands projects were slashed from 3.8 billion barrels to less than 100 million barrels. In addition, liquid reserves related to some US shale plays have been reduced by 1 billion barrels.
• Shell saw its proven reserves fall by 20% to 9 billion boe last year. Liquid reserves accounted for one-third of total reductions and were mostly down to US and South American projects, and a lack of new discoveries elsewhere. Gas reserves accounted for two-thirds of the reductions, led by a 600 million boe revision in Australian projects.
• Chevron suffered reserve losses due to impairments, despite the addition of around 2 billion boe of proven reserves to its inventory through the acquisition of Noble Energy.
• BP saw its total proven reserves drop from 19 billion boe in 2019 to 18 billion boe in 2020, mainly due to the sale of existing assets and a lack of major new discoveries.
• Total and Eni have been able to avoid any reduction in proven reserves over the past decade.
New discovered volumes – a measurement of a company’s exploration performance – illustrates the daunting challenge faced by oil majors to maintain their reserves base and supply existing customers. Over the past five years, the six majors have replaced only 45% of their production through reserves from new discoveries. ExxonMobil fared better than its peers, adding more than 70% of the produced reserves thanks to 9 billion boe of discovered volumes in the offshore Stabroek Block in Guyana.
Total also enjoyed significant exploration success last year in the Guyana-Suriname basin, while Eni did well thanks to success in Africa. Chevron and Shell, on the other hand, have struggled to register new discovered volumes. Chevron managed to replace only 15% of its produced volumes from 2016 through 2020, while Shell replaced 27%.
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