据今日油价网站5月7日消息 雷斯塔能源的一项分析显示，美国页岩气行业将在2021年实现一个重要的里程碑：如果WTI期货继续强劲，今年的平均价格为每桶60美元，天然气和液化天然气价格保持稳定，生产商可以预期，在考虑对冲之前，碳氢化合物收入将达到创纪录的1950亿美元，此前1910亿美元的记录是在2019年。
估计包括二叠纪、Eagle Ford、Bakken、Niobrara和Anadarko地区所有致密油水平井的油气销售。仅二叠纪盆地今年就将从致密油活动中获得1100亿美元的预对冲油气销售额，而2019年为910亿美元。
然而，企业经营活动产生的现金流在2022年之前可能不会达到创纪录的水平，这是因为价值超过100亿美元的收入将被2021年的重大对冲损失所吸收。
尽管在每桶60美元的WTI环境下，致密油生产商的碳氢化合物销售、经营活动产生的现金和息税折旧摊销前利润均创下历史新高，但由于生产商仍致力于维持经营纪律，资本支出并未呈指数级增长。
雷斯塔能源页岩研究主管Artem Abramov表示：“从上游现金流的角度来看，我们看到二叠纪的再投资率下降到57%，其他石油地区今年下降到46%。 由于偿债和对冲损失，今年企业再投资率一般预计在60%-70%之间。”
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
U.S. Shale Pre-Hedge Revenues Set To Hit All-Time High In 2021
The US shale industry is set to achieve a significant milestone in 2021: If WTI futures continue their strong run and average at $60 per barrel this year and natural gas and NGL prices remain steady, producers can expect a record-high hydrocarbon revenue of $195 billion before factoring in hedges, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. The previous record of $191 billion was set in 2019.
The estimate includes hydrocarbon sales from all tight oil horizontal wells in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Niobrara and Anadarko regions. The Permian Basin alone is set to generate a pre-hedge $110 billion in hydrocarbon sales from tight oil activity this year, compared to $91 billion in 2019.
However, corporate cash flows from operations may not reach a record before 2022. This is because more than $10 billion worth of revenue is going to be absorbed by significant hedging losses in 2021.
While hydrocarbon sales, cash from operations and EBITDA for tight oil producers are all testing new record highs in the $60 per barrel WTI environment, capital expenditure is not growing exponentially as producers remain committed to maintaining operational discipline.
“From the upstream cash flow perspective, we see reinvestment rates falling to 57% in the Permian and to 46% in other oil regions this year. Corporate reinvestment rates are generally expected to be in the 60-70% range this year due to debt servicing and hedging losses,“ says Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.
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