据今日油价5月11日表示，2020年是化石燃料行业的一个分水岭。专家警告称，面对全球新冠肺炎疫情、严重的需求冲击以及向可再生能源的转变，价值近9000亿美元(约占大型油气公司价值的三分之一)的储量有可能变得一文不值。
就连大型石油公司似乎也不得不接受自己的命运，荷兰皇家壳牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)首席执行官本·范伯登(Ben van Beurden)称，石油需求已经达到峰值。同时，英国石油公司，作为在2015年历史性的联合国气候变化协议达成后就加倍进行钻探活动的公司，最终让步道：“对碳排放和气候变化的担忧意味着，世界石油储备枯竭的可能性越来越小。”BP继续宣布资产减记，这是所有石油巨头中规模最大的资产减记之一，此前该公司将资产价值削减高达175亿美元，并承认这场疫情将加速市场从化石燃料转移。
然而，具有讽刺意味的是，命运的转折可能意味着，与其将巨大的石油和天然气储量深埋地下，世界很可能在我们有生之年耗尽这些大宗商品。
总部位于挪威的能源咨询公司Rystad energy警告称，除了还有许多未被发现的石油资源，大型石油公司的已探明储量可能在不到15年内耗尽，除非大型石油公司能迅速发现更多的商业发现。这些产量为埃克森美孚、英国石油公司、壳牌、雪佛龙、道达尔和埃尼集团的已探明油气储量。
2020年，大型石油公司的已探明储量减少了130亿桶油当量，相当于其地下库存水平的15%。Rystad现在说，剩余的储量将在不到15年内耗尽
最主要的原因是勘探投资迅速缩水。
全球石油和天然气公司在2020年削减了惊人的34%的资本支出，以应对需求的萎缩和投资者对该行业持续低回报的担忧。且这一趋势并没有放缓的迹象，根据Rystad的数据，第一季度的探明储量为12亿桶，为7年来的最低水平。
在加拿大油砂和美国页岩气储量大幅减少后，埃克森美孚的已探明储量在2020年减少了70亿桶，比2019年减少了30%。
与此同时，壳牌去年已探明储量下降20%，至90亿桶;由于减值支出，雪佛龙损失了20亿桶，而BP损失了10亿桶油当量。过去10年，只有道达尔和埃尼避免了探明储量的减少。
气候行动也带来了消极的影响。
美国政策变化，以及狂热的气候行动主义，很可能会让大型石油公司很难回到激情的钻井时代。美国重新加入了巴黎气候协议，破坏了一条有争议的石油管道，暂停了公共土地上的化石燃料勘探租约，提议对清洁能源进行前所未有的投资，并开始逆转此前的许多监管措施。
4月，美国在线上虚拟气候峰会上公布了一项雄心勃勃的10年期气候计划，计划到2030年将美国的温室气体排放量削减50-52%。这相当于美国在2015年《巴黎协定》承诺的26% -28%的减排目标翻了近一番。
美国提议征收碳税，不过此项政策并未确定。与此同时，全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)一直在加大对油气资产剥离的投资力度。早在2019年，贝莱德就宣布打算在10年内将ESG(环境、社会和治理)投资增加10倍以上，从900亿美元增加到1万亿美元。
如今，该公司正在推出气候行动的目标，并希望他所投资的公司披露实现净零经济的计划。该公司将净零经济定义为到2050年实现温室气体净零排放。贝莱德计划为其公开发行的股票基金和债券基金制定一个“温度校准指标”，以明确温度校准目标，包括与净零计划同步调的产品，从而将油气公司置于约束之下。
此外，塞拉俱乐部(Sierra Club)在内的气候活动人士一直在给贝莱德和先锋集团(Vanguard)打电话和发邮件，敦促他们投票反对埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦•伍兹(Darren Woods)，该俱乐部称，埃克森美孚董事会“需要彻底改革”，以更好地管理气候风险，并引导公司走向低碳未来。
油气公司业务出现异常。
4月份，在IHS Markit召开的CERAWeek能源大会上，大型石油公司表示不希望过多地关注于减少石油和天然气的生产，而是希望减少碳排放和温室气体排放的影响。达伦•伍兹和西方石油公司的Vicky Hollub认为，减少化石燃料的碳排放，而不是实际使用化石燃料，是应对气候变化的最佳方式。
有趣的是，两位首席执行官都强调，世界仍然需要石油和天然气，政府需要专注于减缓全球变暖，使用碳捕获和封存(CCS)等技术，而不是攻击化石燃料。然而，即便是最大的强硬派埃克森美孚也明显改变了几年前的论调。
在公司2021年投资者日期间，达伦•伍兹概述了公司的能源转型战略，包括削减油气产量增长和增加现金流，以支持不断增长的股息。埃克森美孚透露，计划从2020年到2025年将产量维持在370万桶/天的水平，较一年前发布的2025年500万桶/天的预期产量减少了26%。
总而言之，当前， 尽管油价出现回升，但大型石油公司仍很难继续照常营业。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Big Oil Is In Desperate Need Of New Discoveries
The year 2020 was a watershed moment for the fossil fuel sector. Faced with a global pandemic, severe demand shocks and a shift towards renewable energy, experts warned that nearly $900 billion worth of reserves--or about one-third of the value of big oil and gas companies--were at risk of becoming worthless.
Even Big Oil mostly appeared resigned to its fate, with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) CEO Ben van Beurden declaring that we had already hit peak oil demand while BP Plc. (NYSE:BP)—a company that doubled down on its aggressive drilling right after the historic 2015 UN Climate Change Agreement--finally gave in saying "..concerns about carbon emissions and climate change mean that it is increasingly unlikely that the world's reserves of oil will ever be exhausted." BP went on to announce one of the largest asset writedowns of any oil major after slashing up to $17.5 billion off the value of its assets and conceded that it "expects the pandemic to hasten the shift away from fossil fuels."
Yet, an ironic twist of fate might mean that rather than huge oil and gas reserves remaining buried deep in the ground, the world could very well run out those commodities in our lifetimes.
Norway-based energy consultancy Rystad Energy has warned that Big Oil could see its proven reserves run out in less than 15 years, thanks to produced volumes not being fully replaced with new discoveries.
According to Rystad, proven oil and gas reserves by the so-called Big Oil companies, namely ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), BP Plc., Shell, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Total ( NYSE:TOT), and Eni S.p.A are falling, as produced volumes are not being fully replaced with new discoveries.
Massive impairment charges saw Big Oil's proven reserves drop by 13 billion boe, good for ~15% of its stock levels in the ground, last year. Rystad now says that the remaining reserves are set to run out in less than 15 years, unless Big Oil makes more commercial discoveries quickly.
The main culprit: Rapidly shrinking exploration investments.
Global oil and gas companies cut their capex by a staggering 34% in 2020 in response to shrinking demand and investors growing wary of persistently poor returns by the sector.
The trend shows no signs of moderating: First quarter discoveries totaled 1.2 billion boe, the lowest in 7 years with successful wildcats only yielding modest-sized finds as per Rystad.
ExxonMobil, whose proven reserves shrank by 7 billion boe in 2020, or 30%, from 2019 levels, was worst hit after major reductions in Canadian oil sands and US shale gas properties.
Shell, meanwhile, saw its proven reserves fall by 20% to 9 billion boe last year; Chevron lost 2 billion boe of proven reserves due to impairment charges while BP lost 1 boe. only Total and Eni have avoided reductions in proven reserves over the past decade.
Climate activism
Yet, policy changes by Biden's administration, as well as fever-pitch climate activism, are likely to make it really hard for Big Oil to go back to its trigger-happy drilling days.
In his first three months in office, Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris climate agreement, scuppered a controversial oil pipeline, suspended fossil fuel leases on public land, proposed unprecedented investment in clean energy, and started to reverse many of his predecessor's regulatory rollbacks.
In a virtual climate summit with 41 world leaders last month, President Joe Biden unveiled an ambitious 10-year Climate Plan that has proposed cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% by 2030. That represents a near-doubling of the U.S. commitment of a 26-28% cut under the Obama administration following the Paris Agreement of 2015.
Biden had even proposed a carbon tax, though it was conspicuously absent in his latest climate policy.
Meanwhile, the world's biggest asset manager BlackRock, has been doubling down on oil and gas divestitures.
Back in 2019, BlackRock declared its intention to increase its ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investments more than tenfold from $90 billion to a trillion dollars in the space of a decade.
But now the firm is pushing out the goalposts on climate action and wants companies that he invests in to disclose how they plan to achieve a net-zero economy, which he has defined as eliminating net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. BlackRock plans to put oil and gas companies under the clamps by creating a "temperature alignment metric" for both its public equity and bond funds with explicit temperature alignment goals, including products aligned to a net-zero pathway.
Climate activists, including the Sierra Club, have been bombarding BlackRock and Vanguard with calls and emails urging them to vote against Exxon Mobil's CEO Darren Woods, saying Exxon's board "needs an overhaul" to better manage climate risks and guide the company to a low carbon future.
Business unusual
During last month's CERAWeek by IHS Markit energy conference, it became abundantly clear that Big Oil wants to focus not so much on curtailing oil and gas production but rather on mitigating the impact of its carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods and Occidental Petroleum's (NYSE:OXY) Vicky Hollub, reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels and not the actual use of fossil fuels, offers the best way to combat climate change.
Interestingly, both CEOs have stressed that the world still needs oil and gas, and governments need to focus on mitigating global warming using technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) instead of attacking fossil fuels.
Nevertheless, even the biggest hardliner of them all, Exxon Mobil, has markedly changed its tune from just a few years back.
During the company's 2021 Investor Day, CEO Darren Woods outlined the company's energy transition strategy, including plans to trim production growth and boost cash flows in a bid to support a growing dividend. Exxon revealed that it plans to hold production flat from 2020 levels through 2025 at 3.7M boe/day, good for a 26% cut from the 5M boe/day estimate for 2025 it released just a year ago.
In other words, it's going to be really hard for Big Oil to continue with business as usual despite an oil price recovery.
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