据钻机地带5月7日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究(Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research)最新的油价展望报告显示，该公司分析师上调了他们对2021年布伦特原油均价的预测。
分析师们目前预计，今年布伦特原油均价为每桶66美元，高于该公司3月份发布的上一份油价报告中预测的每桶64美元。
分析师在周四发给钻机地带的5月份报告中表示，该预测意味着今年剩余时间平均每桶68美元左右，与现货价格基本持平。
分析师在报告中补充道，来自中国和美国的强劲经济数据以及疫苗接种率的上升使人们感到乐观。 但是，与新冠疫强相关的风险仍然比比皆是，最近在印度爆发的疫情就证明了这一点。在我们看来，供应限制的放松和需求方面挥之不去的不确定性，将严重拖累今年的价格进一步上涨。
惠誉分析师在5月的报告中指出，如果油价持续突破每桶70美元，可能会触发该公司的预测上调。 但是，他们补充道，他们相信布伦特原油将无法在当前市场条件下突破阻力。
分析师在报告中表示，最近有一些迹象显示市场状况恶化，包括布伦特原油现货溢价收窄，现货合约表现逊于财务结算合约。投机性头寸在4月份转为稍微看涨，但多头与空头比率仍远低于其第一季度高点。 多头头寸的增长相对较软，可能表明对进一步的收益缺乏信心。在我们看来，市场可能低估了与冠状病毒未来爆发、更具传染性的新变种的崛起以及全球疫苗推出速度有关的风险。如果布伦特原油价格未能收于每桶70美元以上 ，那么印度的疫情螺旋式上升，以及亚洲其他主要消费国的疫情爆发，可能会引发油价部分回落。
展望未来，惠誉分析师在5月份的报告中预测，2022年布伦特原油均价将为64美元/桶，2023年为65美元/桶，2024年为70美元/桶，2025年为72美元/桶。彭博共识(Bloomberg Consensus)预测布伦特原油今年的平均价格为64美元/桶，2022年为64.5美元/桶，2023年为65.3美元/桶，2024年为65美元/桶，2025年为66美元/桶。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Analysts Raise 2021 Oil Price Forecast
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research have raised their average Brent oil price forecast for 2021, the company’s latest oil price outlook report has revealed.
The analysts now see Brent averaging $66 per barrel this year, up from the forecast of $64 per barrel made in the group’s previous oil price report, which was released back in March.
“The forecast implies a rest of year average of around $68 per barrel, broadly flat from spot,” the analysts stated in the May report, which was sent to Rigzone on Thursday.
“Strong economic data out of China and the U.S. and rising vaccination rates give cause for optimism. However, Covid-19 related risks continue to abound, most recently evidenced by the outbreak in India,” the analysts added in the report.
“In our view, a combination of easing supply constraints and lingering demand-side uncertainties will weigh heavily on further price growth this year,” the analysts continued.
Fitch Solutions analysts noted in the May report that a sustained break above the $70 per barrel level would likely trigger an upgrade to the company’s forecast. They added, however, that it is their belief that Brent will fail to break resistance under current market conditions.
“There have been some signs of deterioration in the health of the market of late, including narrowing backwardation in Brent and underperformance of physically versus financially-settled contracts,” the analysts said in the report.
“Speculative positioning has turned slightly more bullish over April, but the ratio of longs to shorts remains far below its Q1 highs. The growth in long positions has been relatively soft, perhaps pointing to a lack of faith in further gains,” the analysts added.
“In our view, the market is likely underestimating the risks related to future outbreaks of the coronavirus, the rise of new, more transmissible variants and the pace of the global vaccine roll out. Should Brent fail to close above $70 per barrel, the spiraling epidemic in India and outbreaks among other key Asian consumers could be the trigger for a partial relapse in prices,” the analysts continued.
Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions analysts forecasted in the May report that Brent will average $64 per barrel in 2022, $65 per barrel in 2023, $70 per barrel in 2024, and $72 per barrel in 2025. The Bloomberg Consensus sees Brent averaging $64 per barrel this year, $64.5 per barrel in 2022, $65.3 per barrel in 2023, $65 per barrel in 2024, and $66 per barrel in 2025.
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