据今日油价5月12日报道，4月，沙特阿拉伯的国有石油巨头沙特阿美宣布出售其管道业务的少数股份——可能再出售1%的股份，并有意出售一些油田的股份。与此同时，作为邻国、盟友和欧佩克成员国的阿联酋宣布了将国有石油公司的钻井业务进行上市，并推出了自己的石油期货，以改变中东石油的面貌。
沙特阿美和Adnoc也都公开了它们提高石油生产能力的意图，这让人们感觉，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋都急于充分利用它们的石油资源。从表面上看，撤资和产能提升的原因非常明显:所有海湾经济体都依赖其石油收入来维持运转，而它们都受到了去年疫情造成的需求破坏的沉重打击。然而还有其他的原因——海湾经济体对石油需求峰值的预测十分谨慎。除了股权出售、上市和开采更多石油的计划之外，它们还试图使经济多元化，摆脱对石油的依赖。为此，他们需要尽可能多的石油收入。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)最近表示，全球石油需求可能在2026年见顶，与许多其他机构一样，认为石油这种全球交易量最大的大宗商品前景黯淡。高盛分析师在一份报告中表示:“推动提高效率和降低排放的政府政策对道路运输需求的影响最大。在经济增长和消费增长(尤其是新兴市场)的推动下，石化产品将成为石油需求的新的基本负载。”
挪威能源咨询公司Rystad energy也预测石油需求将在2026年见顶，称电动汽车的迅速普及可能是其修正预期的原因。该公司此前曾预测石油需求将在2028年见顶。
基本上，依赖石油的经济体的长期前景并不是特别好。
《能源情报》(Energy Intelligence)最近的一份综述提到，除了股权出售之外，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔的生产扩张计划也反映了为人类未来节约石油和天然气储备的长期政策的逆转。事实上，这似乎是迄今为止最明确的信号，表明依赖石油的海湾经济体担心可能没有必要为未来保存石油和天然气储备。
然而，卡塔尔可能是另一种情况。这个海湾小国最近宣布了大幅提高液化天然气产能的计划。然而，需要指出的是，即使世界从化石燃料过渡到后化石燃料时代，这一需求仍将在相当长一段时间内增长。与此同时，竞争也在加剧，因此为了保持其主要出口国的地位，卡塔尔需要尽其所能，包括提高产量。
当然，没有什么是一成不变的，包括电动汽车的大规模采用。例如，加州大学(University of California)最近的一项研究发现，在2012年至2018年期间，近五分之一的电动汽车驾驶者重新转向了汽油汽车，原因是填充能源太麻烦了。自2018年以来，充电时间并没有缩短多少，所以问题依然存在。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Middle East Oil Producers Race To Pump Crude And Sell Assets
Within the last month, Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has announced the sale of a minority—but large—stake in its pipeline business, the possibility to sell another 1 percent of its stock, and intentions to put up for sale stakes in some oil fields.
Neighbor, ally, and fellow OPEC member UAE in the meantime, has announced plans to list its state oil firm’s drilling business and has launched its own oil futures in a bid to change the face of Middle Eastern oil.
There is a certain feeling that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in a rush to make the most of their oil, with both Aramco and Adnoc also making public their intentions to boost their oil production capacity.
On the face of it, the reason for the divestments and capacity boosts is obvious enough: all Gulf economies depend on their oil revenues to keep going, and all of them have been hit hard by the demand destruction that the pandemic caused last year. Yet there is also something else—Gulf economies are wary of oil demand peak forecasts. Besides stake sells, listings, and plans to pump more oil, they are also trying to diversify their economies away from oil. For that, they need as much oil money as they can make.
Goldman Sachs recently said that global oil demand could peak by 2026, joining a host of various entities seeing a grim future for the world’s most traded commodity.
“Government policies driving higher efficiency gains and lower emissions have had the strongest bearing on road transport demand,”Goldman analysts said in a report. “Petrochemicals will become the new baseload for oil demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption, especially in emerging markets.”
Norwegian energy consultancy Rystad Energy also foresees peak oil demand in 2026, citing the rapid adoption of electric vehicles as the probable cause of its revised forecast, which earlier saw oil demand peaking in 2028.
Basically, the long-term outlook for oil-dependent economies is not particularly good.
A recent Energy Intelligence overview on the topic cited, in addition to the stake sales, the production expansion plans of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, which represent a reversal of the long-standing policy of saving oil and gas reserves for future generations. Indeed, this seems like the clearest sign yet that the oil-dependent Gulf economies are worried there may be no need to save their oil and gas reserves for future generations.
Perhaps Qatar is a different case, however. The tiny Gulf nation recently announced plans to substantially boost its LNG production capacity. It should be noted, however, that this is happening in a market where demand is set to grow for quite some time, even as the world moves from fossil fuels to a post-fossil fuel era. At the same time, competition is intensifying, so to retain its spot as lead exporter, Qatar needs to do whatever it can, including boosting production.
Of course, nothing is set in stone, including the mass adoption of EVs. A recent study from the University of California, for instance, found that close to a fifth of EV drivers switched back to a gasoline car in the period between 2012 and 2018. The reason was that charging was too much hassle. Charging times haven’t shortened much since 2018, so the problem remains.
In the meantime, growing Asian economies are building new coal-powered generation capacity, led by China, which is also the leader in new renewable power capacity.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
