据彭博社5月12日消息称，国际能源署表示，尽管印度疫情再次使需求受到打击，但全球疫情造成的供应过剩已经消除。
IEA周三表示，发达国家目前的过剩石油库存仅为去年需求骤降时的一小部分，OPEC及其盟友的减产耗尽了过剩库存。不过，该机构认为，在今年晚些时候恢复之前，随着新冠肆虐印度，全球消费将暂时受挫。
IEA在其月度报告中表示：“去年Covid-19需求冲击期间积累的过高的世界石油库存已经恢复到更正常的水平。但是印度的Covid危机提醒我们，石油需求前景仍充满不确定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市场波动可能会持续。”
随着中国和美国的燃料消费回升，今年石油市场的复苏势头得以延续，将伦敦国际原油价格推高至每桶约69美元。
IEA称，今年3月，发达国家的石油库存仅比2015年至2019年的平均水平高3690万桶，低于去年夏季约2.5亿桶的过剩水平。与2016年至2020年的平均水平相比，过剩原油仅为170万桶，还不到一艘超级油轮的容量。
需求正遭遇暂时挫折，由于疫情在印度蔓延，预计第二季度印度石油日消费量将减少63万桶。对2021年全球石油需求的估计减少了27万桶/天，降至9640万桶/天。总部位于巴黎的IEA为大多数主要经济体提供咨询服务。
IEA石油市场和工业部门负责人Toril Bosoni在接受彭博社电视采访时表示“需求前景仍然脆弱。不过，该机构“预计今年下半年需求增长将强劲复苏。”
在经历了2020年前所未有的暴跌之后，今年全球石油消费量有望反弹540万桶/日，涨幅为6%。复苏将在下半年将加剧势头，导致库存进一步减少。
这将给以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的由23个国家组成的欧佩克+联盟带来一个选择:要么进一步恢复暂停的石油产量，要么继续收紧全球市场。
欧佩克及其合作伙伴正在分3个月恢复约200万桶的日产量。IEA的数据显示，当7月份增产完成时，对欧佩克原油的需求仍将高于产量。
根据IEA的报告，欧佩克13个成员国上个月的日产量约为2500万桶，而第三季度的供应需求预计为2810万桶。
朱佳妮 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
IEA Declares End to Global Oil Glut
The International Energy Agency said the supply glut created by the global pandemic has cleared, even as demand suffers a blow from a resurgence of the virus in India.
Surplus oil inventories in developed nations are now just a small fraction of the levels seen when demand collapsed last year, with output cuts by OPEC and its allies draining the excess, the IEA said on Wednesday. Still, the agency sees a temporary setback for global consumption as infections rock India, before the recovery resumes later in the year.
“Bloated world oil inventories that built up during last year’s Covid-19 demand shock have returned to more normal levels,” the IEA said in its monthly report. “But India’s Covid crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist.”
Oil markets have extended their recovery this year as fuel consumption roars back in China and the U.S., buoying international crude prices to about $69 a barrel in London.
In March, oil inventories in developed nations stood just 36.9 million barrels above the average level from 2015 to 2019, down from a surplus of about 250 million barrels last summer, the IEA said. Compared with the average for 2016 to 2020, the excess is just 1.7 million barrels, less than the capacity of a single supertanker.
Demand is suffering a temporary setback, with forecasts for Indian consumption in the second quarter cut by 630,000 barrels a day as a brutal wave of infections spreads across the country. Estimates for global demand in 2021 were trimmed by 270,000 barrels a day, to 96.4 million a day. The Paris-based IEA advises most major economies.
“The outlook for demand remains fragile,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, said in a Bloomberg television interview. Still, the agency is “expecting a very strong recovery in demand growth in the second half of the year.”
Global consumption is on track for a rebound of 5.4 million barrels a day, or 6%, this year after 2020’s unprecedented slump. The recovery will gather momentum in the second half, causing stockpiles to dwindle even further.
That will present the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia with a choice: restore some more of the production they’ve halted, or continue to tighten global markets.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are in the process of reviving about 2 million barrels of daily output in three monthly installments. When the increase is completed in July, the IEA’s data indicates that demand for the cartel’s crude will still be higher than its production.
OPEC’s 13 members pumped about 25 million barrels a day last month, while demand for their supply in the third quarter is projected at 28.1 million barrels, according to the IEA report.
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