据全球能源新闻网5月15日报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）公布了2021年5月的短期能源展望。由于对新冠疫情的应对仍在不断演变，因此该研究仍面临更大的不确定性。经济活动在去年第二季度达到多年低点后显著增加。
据EIA估计，4月份全球石油和液体燃料的日消耗量为9620万桶，比2020年4月增加了1580万桶，但比2019年4月的水平减少了400万桶。2021年全球石油和液体燃料的日均消耗量将达到9770万桶，比2020年增加540万桶。到2022年，石油和液体燃料的日消费量将增加370万桶，日均达到1.014亿桶。
今年2月，美国原油日均产量为990万桶，比1月减少120万桶。今年2月，低温导致得克萨斯州原油产量大幅下降，其他州也出现了小幅下降。EIA估计，生产中断一般仅限于2月份，3月份美国原油产量上升至1090万桶/天，4月份上升至近1100万桶/天。由于预测西德克萨斯中质原油的均价仍高于55美元/桶，预计未来几个月生产商将钻探并完成足够的油井，以抵消现有油井的下降。此外，预测联邦近海墨西哥湾的新项目也有助于提高产量。美国的原油产量将在2021年第四季度达到日均1130万桶，然后在2022年上升到日均1180万桶。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
GLOBAL OIL ConSUMPTION TO AVERAGE 101.4 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2022
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released it short-term Energy outlook for May 2021. The study remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Economic activity has increased significantly after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020.
The EIA estimates that the world consumed 96.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels in April, an increase of 15.8 million b/d from April 2020 but 4.0 million b/d less than April 2019 levels. The global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is a 5.4 million b/d increase from 2020. The consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.4 million b/d.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.9 million b/d in February 2021, which was down by 1.2 million b/d from January. In February, cold temperatures caused significant declines in crude oil production in Texas, as well as smaller declines in other states. The EIA estimates that production outages were generally limited to February and that U.S. crude oil production rose to 10.9 million b/d in March and to almost 11.0 million b/d in April. Because the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains above $55/b in the forecast, it is expected that producers will drill and complete enough wells in the coming months to offset declines at existing wells. In addition, new projects in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico contribute to rising production in the forecast. U.S. crude oil production will averages 11.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2021 and then rise to average 11.8 million b/d in 2022.
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