据钻机地带5月18日消息，到目前为止，页岩勘探者们已经通过了考验。
由于投资者对过度支出而无回报的表现感到不满，该行业在今年前三个月设法抵制了油价上涨22％的趋势，使产出几乎持平。
一份关于钻井公司的综合数据显示，该行业有望获得创纪录的自由现金流，并有迹象表明，并显示出该行业已开始有所作为。同时也有迹象表明，在工人们最终重返油田的同时，钻井速度也在缓慢上升，两者之间存在微妙的平衡。
高盛集团分析师尼尔•梅塔周一在给投资者的一份报告中写道:“我们对盈利充满持续信心，因勘探开发业务对大宗商品价格上涨的回应十分自律。”尽管四分之一的自律可能还不足以让勘探者们证明他们对节制的承诺，但至少有迹象表明，他们终于注意到了投资者要求紧缩的呼声。
自由现金流可能是当今页岩气领域最受关注的指标，根据彭博对31家独立美国油气公司的分析，到目前为止，页岩气领域的自由现金流预计将比以往任何时候都多。
但并不是只有最大的独立页岩气生产商——比如EOG资源公司已经公布了第一季度创纪录的自由现金流——向投资者展示了资金。Diamondback Energy Inc.预计在支付股息之前将产生创纪录的14亿美元自由现金流。
除了油价回升有助于他们的努力外，勘探公司还通过避免大规模钻探来增加现金储备。例如，德文能源公司计划在“有利”条件下将产量增长限制在5%。
首席执行官Rick Muncrief在本月初的电话会议上对分析师和投资者表示：“我们的业务规模可以产生大量的自由现金流。有了这样强大的现金流，我觉得有必要重申，在需求方基本面恢复、欧佩克+的闲置石油产能明显被全球市场有效吸收之前，我们不会将资本配置到增长项目上。”
尽管关于“自由现金流”的话题较三个月前有所下降，但在美国石油勘探商和生产商召开的收益电话会议上，这仍然是最热门的话题。在过去12个月里，在电话会议和演讲中，这个词出现了822次，比五年前同期增长了1000%以上。
美世资本(Mercer Capital)分析师贾斯汀•拉米雷斯表示，市场正在关注这一趋势，这表明“原油价格将脱离深渊，继续上升”。
为了应对去年的石油危机，美国生产商将2020年的资本支出削减了近一半，这意味着数千个工作岗位的流失。
现在，这个行业正在回升，就业机会也在回升。但在招聘方面仍需谨慎。尽管3月份新增的9900个石油支持岗位是有记录以来最大的月度增幅，但美国石油和天然气行业的工人总数仍比几年前减少了近四分之一。
企业再次被迫面对不断增加的债务，这一次是在2019年底杠杆率飙升至1500亿美元以上之后。继去年的减产之后，勘探公司今年正利用其超大规模的现金做更多的事情。
赫斯公司首席执行官约翰·赫斯上个月在一次电话会议上告诉分析师和投资者：“由于我们的投资组合产生了越来越多的自由现金流，我们将首先削减债务，然后通过增加股息和机会主义的股票回购向股东返还现金”。
马拉松石油公司本月表示，将把今年的债务削减目标提高一倍，至10亿美元。
尽管钻探活动正在从去年的封锁中恢复，但寻找石油的钻机数量仍约为2020年初全球疫情流行沉重打击油价之前水平的一半。
裘寅 编译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Shale Drillers Show Restraint in Q1
So far, shale explorers are passing the test.
The industry, much maligned by investors for excessive spending without returns to show for it, has managed to resist a 22% run-up in oil prices during the first three months of this year, holding output almost flat.
A round-up of data on the drillers shows expectations for record free cash flow and signs that the industry is starting to pay its way. There are also indications of a delicate balance between workers finally returning to the fields, while drilling ramps up at a more moderate pace.
“We emerge from earnings season with continued confidence in a disciplined response from covered E&Ps to higher commodity prices,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Neil Mehta wrote Monday in a note to investors. While one quarter of discipline may not be sufficient for explorers to prove their commitment to moderation, there are at least signs that they’re finally heeding investors’ pleas for austerity, the analysts wrote.
Free cash flow is perhaps the most closely watched metric in the shale patch these days, and so far, the sector is projected to make more of it than ever before, based on a analysis of 31 independent U.S. oil and gas companies.
But it’s not just the biggest independent shale producers -- like EOG Resources Inc. which already reported record free cash flow in the first quarter -- that are showing investors the money. Diamondback Energy Inc. expects to generate a record $1.4 billion in free cash flow before paying out a dividend.
In addition to rebounding oil prices aiding their efforts, explorers are adding to the cash piles by avoiding a huge return to drilling. Devon Energy Corp., for example, plans to cap output growth at 5% in times of “favorable” conditions.
“Our operations are scaled to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow,” Chief Executive Officer Rick Muncrief told analysts and investors earlier this month on a conference call. “With this powerful cash flow stream, I feel it is important to reiterate that we have no intention of allocating capital to growth projects until demand-side fundamentals recover and it becomes evident that OPEC+ spare oil capacity is effectively absorbed by the world markets.”
While talking about “free cash flow” dipped a bit from three months earlier, it’s still the hottest topic on earnings calls hosted by U.S. oil explorers and producers. Over the past 12 months, it’s come up 822 times during calls and presentations, an increase of more than 1,000% from the same period five years earlier.
The market is taking notice of the trend, which, according to Justin Ramirez, an analyst at Mercer Capital, indicates a ”continued upward trajectory out of the crude abyss.”
U.S. producers responded to last year’s oil collapse by cutting 2020 capital spending almost in half, and that translates into thousands of jobs lost.
Now that the industry is climbing back, so are the jobs. But there’s still caution in hiring.
Although the 9,900 oil-support positions added in March was the largest monthly gain on record, the overall number of U.S. workers in oil and gas remains almost a quarter less than a couple years ago.
Companies are once again forced to face their mounting debts, this time after leverage ballooned to more than $150 billion at the end of 2019. Following up on last year’s reduction, explorers are using their out-sized cash this year to do more.
“As our portfolio generates increasing free cash flow, we’ll first prioritize debt reduction, and then cash returns to shareholders through dividend increases and opportunistic share repurchases,” Hess Corp. CEO John Hess told analysts and investors last month on a conference call.
Marathon Oil Corp., in giving up its corporate aircraft program to cut costs, said this month it will double its goal of debt reduction this year to $1 billion.
And while drilling is returning from the depths of last year’s lockdown, the number of rigs hunting for oil still remains at roughly half the level they were at before the global pandemic wrecked oil prices in early 2020.
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