据今日石油网2021年5月14日报道，圭亚那-苏里南盆地被油气行业的分析人士视为全球深水勘探的最后一个重要领域。2015年，世界级的圭亚那丽莎大油田发现是当时10年来最大的海上石油发现，迄今为止，丽莎大油田发现在全球深水领域的成功仍是无与伦比的。
在今日石油网日前看到的一份全球未来油气勘探的新研究报告中，韦斯特伍德全球能源集团表示，全球油气勘探领域在今后5年内将发生很多变化。
韦斯特伍德说，“2015年，石油行业受到油价暴跌的影响，结束了100美元/桶的繁荣时期。当时很难看出下一个大的油田将来自哪里。”韦斯特伍德指出，一个由多家公司组成历时8年钻取69口探井在晚白垩纪地层寻找“类似”朱比利远景区的战役最终仍未能命中这个远景区。
韦斯特伍德说：“2015年在圭亚那发现了世界级的丽莎大油田，这是自2006年在桑托斯盆地发现盐下油气藏以来的第一个重大石油发现。”“更重要的是，圭亚那拥有良好的财政条件，丽莎大油田在发现后的4年半时间里就投产。”
然而，韦斯特伍德表示，圭亚那-苏里南盆地的成功高度集中，3个合作伙伴在斯塔布鲁克许可区块发现了85%的资源，美国石油巨头埃克森美孚公司与其另外两个合作伙伴迄今已在该区块发现了超过90亿桶油当量的资源。
韦斯特伍德表示：“总的来说，自2014年油价暴跌以来，人们更关注周期时间，勘探公司已将更多资金投向探明盆地和正在成熟和已成熟远景区。”
这在2020年尤其明显，尽管行业受到石油需求暴跌和价格触底的严重打击，圭亚那-苏里南盆地的投资仍然强劲。
韦斯特伍德认为，除非在其他地方有重大发现，开辟其他盆地，否则未来的热点地区可能会被目前的地区所主导，比如圭亚那-苏里南盆地。
该咨询集团表示：“晚白垩纪丽莎远景区是自巴西海上300亿桶盐下碳酸盐远景区发现以来出现的这个最大的新石油远景区，这个远景区在2006年发现了图皮大油田。”
今日石油网了解到，在发现图皮大油田和丽莎大油田之间的9年时间里，全球有超过250家公司参与了超过350口的前沿勘探井，其中70%的勘探井目标是油气藏，超过一半的勘探井试图开发新的盆地。
韦斯特伍德说：“从发现丽莎大油田以来，在所钻的159个前沿远景区中，只有11个前沿远景区具有潜在商业价值。其中包括2015年在MSGBC晚白垩纪发现了巨大的Tortue天然气远景区和2015年在东地中海的碳酸盐岩中发现了祖尔大气田。全球自那以来迄今还没有发现新的石油远景区。”
地球上是否还有数十亿桶的石油储量有待发现?石油行业继续寻找这些储量的难度会有多大?人们将拭目以待。
李峻 编译自 今日石油
原文如下：
Liza could be last major frontier oil play discovered in the world – Westwood
The Guyana-Suriname basin is viewed by analysts in the oil and gas industry as potentially the last major frontier for deepwater discoveries. The world-class Liza discovery in 2015 was the biggest offshore oil strike made in a decade at the time and remains unparalleled to this day for deepwater success around the world.
In a new study seen by OilNOW with focus on future exploration, Westwood Global Energy Group said much can happen in the exploration world in five years.
“In 2015 the industry was reeling from the oil price crash that ended the $100/bbl boom period. At the time it was hard to see where the next big oil play was going to come from,” the company said, pointing out that a multi-company 69 well, 8-year campaign chasing frontier Late Cretaceous Jubilee ‘look-alike’ plays had failed to hit pay.
“Then along came the Liza discovery in 2015 in acreage in Guyana that opened a potentially ten-billion-barrel oil province, the first since the presalt Santos in 2006,” Westwood said. “What is more, Guyana boasted excellent fiscal terms and Liza was onstream in four and a half years.”
The consultancy group said the success in Guyana-Suriname has been highly concentrated, however, with 85% of the discovered resource captured by the three partners in the Stabroek licence where U.S oil major ExxonMobil has so far found over 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources.
“Overall, since the 2014 oil price crash there has been more of a focus on cycle times and explorers have been allocating more capital to proven basins and maturing and mature plays,” Westwood said.
This was particularly evident over the last year where despite the industry being hit severely by plummeting oil demand and prices bottoming out, investments in the Guyana-Suriname basin remained robust.
Westwood believes future hotspots are likely to be dominated by those of the present, such as the Guyana-Suriname province, unless significant discoveries are made elsewhere, opening up other basins.
“The Upper Cretaceous Liza play is the largest new oil play to emerge since the 30 bnbbl Pre-salt Carbonate play offshore Brazil that emerged with the Tupi discovery in 2006,” the consultancy group said.
OilNOW understands that in the nine years between Tupi and Liza, more than 250 companies participated in over 350 frontier exploration wells globally with ~70% of these targeting oil plays and more than half attempting to open new basins.
“Since Liza there have been just 11 potentially commercial discoveries from the 159 frontier play wells drilled,” Westwood said. “These include the giant gas plays in the Upper Cretaceous of the MSGBC (Tortue 2015) and the carbonates of the Eastern Mediterranean (Zohr 2015). There have been no new oil plays opened.”
Are there more multi-billion-barrel oil plays out there to be found and how hard will the industry continue to search for them?
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