据油气新闻5月16日消息称，根据Rystad Energy的一份报告，Covid-19对上游投资的影响在经济低迷的头两年估计高达2850亿美元，尽管从2022年开始支出将缓慢增加，但在未来一段时间内不会达到危机前的水平。页岩气行业受到的影响最大，迄今为止对成熟资产的常规勘探和投资受到的影响最小。
2020年2月，在Covid-19开始影响全球能源系统之前，Rystad Energy估计全年全球上游投资最终将达到约5300亿美元，几乎与2019年的水平持平。我们当时的预测表明，2021年的投资将与前一年的水平保持一致。
但是，由于Covid-19大流行在去年第二季度初触发了油价暴跌，勘探与生产公司削减了投资预算以保护现金流。这种支出趋势在2021年没有逆转，当时价格上涨了。与疫情前对2020年和2021年的估计相比，我们注意到，去年的支出下降了约1450亿美元，到今年年底将损失1400亿美元。这意味着Covid-19减少了27%的计划投资。
2020年，上游支出被限制在3820亿美元，预计今年将小幅增长至3900亿美元。Rystad Energy预计，疫情的影响将是持久的，因为即使从2022年开始支出将开始增长，它也不会回到大流行前的5300亿美元水平。增长将是有限的，每年的投资也只会小幅上升，到2025年，将上升到略高于4800亿美元。
在2020年至2021年的两年间，页岩油/致密油投资的绝对值和百分比都受到了最大的影响，损失了960亿美元的预期支出，即该行业的39%。与此前的预测相比，勘探支出预计将减少190亿美元，即22%。在新常规项目上的绿地投资将损失780亿美元，即28%，而在现有此类项目上的棕地投资将减少920亿美元，即20%。
Rystad Energy上游研究主管Espen Erlingsen表示:“由于页岩油/致密油既是油气活动下降幅度最大的板块，也是最需要持续再投资以保持产量增长的供应来源，该行业的产量受到的直接影响非常显著。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻
原文如下：
Upstream spending, cut by $285 billion in two years
The toll of the Covid-19 pandemic on upstream investments in the first two years of the downturn is estimated at a whopping $285 billion, and although spending will slowly start to rise from 2022, it will not reach pre-crisis levels in the coming period, according to a Rystad Energy report. The shale sector has been the most affected, with conventional exploration and investments in mature assets suffering the least thus far.
In February 2020, before Covid-19 started impacting the global energy system, Rystad Energy estimated global upstream investments for the year would end up at around $530 billion, almost at the same level as in 2019. Our forecast at the time suggested 2021 investments would remain in line with the previous year’s level.
However, as the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a collapse in oil prices during the early part of the second quarter last year, E&P companies slashed investment budgets to protect cash flow. This spending trend was not reversed in 2021, when prices rose. Compared to pre-pandemic estimates for 2020 and 2021, we observe that spending fell by around $145 billion last year and will end up losing $140 billion by the end of this year. This implies Covid-19 removed 27% of planned investments.
Upstream spending was limited to $382 billion in 2020 and is forecast to marginally grow to $390 billion this year. Rystad Energy expects the effect of the pandemic to be a lasting one as – even though spending will start growing from 2022 – it will not return to the pre-pandemic level of $530 billion. Growth will be limited and investments will only inch up annually, rising to just over $480 billion in 2025, when this report’s forecast ends.
Over the two-year period between 2020 and 2021, shale/tight oil investments are the ones most affected in both absolute and percentage terms, losing $96 billion of the previously expected spending, or 39% for the sector. Exploration spending is expected to drop by $19 billion, or 22%, compared to what was previously forecast. Greenfield investment in new conventional projects will suffer a $78 billion loss, or 28%, while brownfield investment in existing such projects will fall by $92 billion, or 20%.
“Since shale/tight oil is both the segment with the highest decline in activity and the supply source in greatest need of continuous reinvestment to keep production growing, the immediate impact on output from this sector has been significant,” says Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy.
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