据5月19日Trade Arabia报道，国际能源署(IEA)在一份新报告中表示，引导全球到2050年实现净零排放的400多个里程碑举措，是从今天起，不再投资新的化石燃料供应项目，不再对新建的燃煤电厂作出最终投资决定。
具有里程碑意义的特别报告《2050年净零排放:全球能源部门路线图》补充道，到2035年，新的内燃机乘用车将停止销售，到2040年，全球电力部门将达到净零排放。
在短期内，该报告描述了一种净零发展路径，要求立即大规模部署所有可用的清洁和高效能源技术，并在全球范围内大力推动加速创新。该方案要求，到2030年，太阳能光伏发电的年增加量达到630千兆瓦，风力发电的年增加量达到390千兆瓦。这是2020年创纪录水平的四倍。对于太阳能光伏来说，这相当于大约每天安装一个世界上最大的太阳能园区。在全球范围内大力提高能源效率也是这些努力的重要组成部分，以使2030年全球能源效率平均每年提高4%，大约是过去20年平均水平的三倍。
到2030年，全球大部分二氧化碳排放量的减少来自于目前可用的技术。但到2050年，几乎一半的减排将来自目前仅处于示范或模型阶段的技术。 这就要求各国政府迅速增加研发支出，并调整其优先次序，以及示范和部署清洁能源技术，并将其置于能源和气候的核心政策。在先进电池、氢电解槽和直接空气捕获和储存方面的进展对碳排放尤其具有影响力。
国际能源署表示，有一条可行的道路，可以在2050年建立一个净零排放的全球能源部门，但这条道路非常艰难，需要对全球能源的生产、运输和使用方式进行前所未有的变革。
迄今各国政府作出的气候承诺，即使完全实现了，也远远低于到2050年将全球能源相关二氧化碳排放量降至零，并使全球气温上升幅度限制在1.5摄氏度的要求。
这份世界上第一个关于如何在2050年过渡到能源净零体系的全面研究，同时确保了稳定和负担得起的能源供应，可以提供大范围的能源供应，并促进强劲的经济增长。该研究提出了一个具有成本效益和经济效益的途径，从而形成一个以太阳能和风能等可再生能源、而不是化石燃料为主导的清洁、动态和弹性的能源经济。该研究还考察了关键的不确定性因素，如生物能源、碳捕获和行为变化在实现净零排放方面的作用。
IEA执行主任法蒂赫·比罗尔表示：“我们的路线图显示了今天需要优先采取的行动，以确保到2050年实现净零排放的机会，虽然这个机会很小，但仍然可以实现。这一关键而艰巨的目标所要求的我们需要努力的规模和速度，是我们应对气候变化和将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以内的最佳机会，而这可能成为人类有史以来面临的最大挑战。这条通往更光明未来的道路将带来清洁能源投资的历史性激增，将创造数百万的新就业机会，并促进全球经济增长。让世界走上这条道路，需要各国政府采取强有力和可信的政策行动，并以更大程度的国际合作为基础。”
王佳晶 摘译自 Trade Arabia
原文如下：
Stop new coal, oil & gas investments to attain net zero: IEA
The more than 400 milestones to guide the global journey to net zero by 2050 include, from today, no investment in new fossil fuel supply projects, and no further final investment decisions for new unabated coal plants, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a new report.
By 2035, there are no sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars, and by 2040, the global electricity sector has already reached net-zero emissions, added the landmark special report “Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”.
In the near term, the report describes a net zero pathway that requires the immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies, combined with a major global push to accelerate innovation. The pathway calls for annual additions of solar PV to reach 630 gigawatts by 2030, and those of wind power to reach 390 gigawatts.
Together, this is four times the record level set in 2020. For solar PV, it is equivalent to installing the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day. A major worldwide push to increase energy efficiency is also an essential part of these efforts, resulting in the global rate of energy efficiency improvements averaging 4% a year through 2030 – about three times the average over the last two decades.
Most of the global reductions in CO2 emissions between now and 2030 in the net zero pathway come from technologies readily available today. But in 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently only at the demonstration or prototype phase.
This demands that governments quickly increase and reprioritise their spending on research and development – as well as on demonstrating and deploying clean energy technologies – putting them at the core of energy and climate policy. Progress in the areas of advanced batteries, electrolysers for hydrogen, and direct air capture and storage can be particularly impactful.
The world has a viable pathway to building a global energy sector with net-zero emissions in 2050, but it is narrow and requires an unprecedented transformation of how energy is produced, transported and used globally, the IEA said.
Climate pledges by governments to date – even if fully achieved – would fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5C, according to the new report.
The report is the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. It sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway, resulting in a clean, dynamic and resilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels. The report also examines key uncertainties, such as the roles of bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes in reaching net zero.
“Our Roadmap shows the priority actions that are needed today to ensure the opportunity of net-zero emissions by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost. The scale and speed of the efforts demanded by this critical and formidable goal – our best chance of tackling climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5C – make this perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.
“The IEA’s pathway to this brighter future brings a historic surge in clean energy investment that creates millions of new jobs and lifts global economic growth. Moving the world onto that pathway requires strong and credible policy actions from governments, underpinned by much greater international cooperation.”
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