据阿拉伯贸易通讯社2021年5月21日迪拜报道，日本三菱日联金融 （MUFG）日前在一份新报告中称，今年第二季度油价预计将达到每桶77美元，油价在夏季将保持在每桶70美元。
MUFG预计，未来6个月全球石油需求将增加，原因是疫苗接种和人员流动趋势对新冠肺炎疫情浪潮的抵抗力越来越强。
MUFG在其最新的《石油市场周刊》中表示：“在今年第四季度之后，我们预计油价将逐渐回归石油行业的均衡价格，我们认为油价将以目前接近长期边际生产成本的锚点为中心，布伦特原油价格将维持在55-65美元/桶左右。”
MUFG说：“我们继续看涨油价，并在未来一周寻找需求强劲、库存下降、溢价上升以及现货溢价更大的远期曲线的进一步证据。”
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易通讯社
原文如下：
Oil prices likely to reach $77 in Q2: MUFG
Oil prices are expected to reach $77 per barrel (/b) in the second quarter (Q2) of the year and remain in the 70s over the summer, said the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese financial services company in a new report.
MUFG expects a ramp-up in global oil demand in the next six months, owing to both vaccines and mobility trends increasingly becoming more resilient to virus waves.
“Thereafter in Q4, we see oil prices gradually regressing back towards the equilibrium price for the oil industry, which we view as being centred on the current anchor near the long-term marginal cost of production and support of about $55-65/b for Brent,” MUFG said in its latest Oil Market Weekly.
Oil prices have edged slightly lower this week with investors increasingly pricing in some prospects that Iran will resume oil exports on a large scale following a potential diplomatic breakthrough where the US and Iran return to the terms of the nuclear agreement.
“ We continue to remain bullish and for the week ahead look for further evidence of demand strength, falling inventories, rising premiums and the forward curve in steeper backwardation,” the MUFG report said.
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