据美国钻井网站2021年5月19日报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）称，英国石油公司（BP）和法国道达尔公司日前先后宣布了他们到2030年最大的可再生能源目标，并强调两家公司的目标是50吉瓦的产能。
这个产能是同期其他石油巨头的两倍多，埃尼公司、壳牌公司、Equinor和雷普索尔公司的可再生能源产能目标都在20吉瓦以下，葡萄牙最大能源企业Galp的目标是10吉瓦，雪佛龙公司的目标远低于5吉瓦。
Rystad可再生能源副总裁Vegard Wiik Vollset说：“如果我们把英国石油公司和道达尔公司2030年前50吉瓦的目标看成是他们可再生能源投资基准，这两家公司在可再生能源达到他们目标前将不得不每年向新项目花费大约50亿到60亿美元。”
Vollset强调说，相比之下，英国石油公司到2030年在油气项目上的计划资本支出(CAPEX)为每年80亿美元，道达尔公司到2030年在油气项目上的计划资本支出约为每年100亿美元。
根据上面的数据，平均起来，英国石油公司的年度石油和天然气支出将在37.5%，比其到2030年年度可再生能源支出高出25%，而道达尔公司的年度石油和天然气支出将在50%，比其到2030年年度可再生能源支出高出40%。
展望2050年，Vollset概述了一个远离化石燃料的巨大转变。Rystad的代表告诉美国钻井网站，即使将油气的中游和下游部分包括在内，到2050年可再生能源的总投资预计将是油气的10倍。Vollset强调，2020年全球在石油和天然气项目上的支出超过了可再生项目。
Vollset说：“至于石油巨头到2050年前将采取什么行动，我认为这取决于个别公司，你可以看到它们之间迥然不同的做法。”
Vollset补充说：“虽然欧洲石油巨头已经在可再生能源领域进行了战略转移，但美国石油巨头尚未在可再生能源领域进行任何实质性投资。”
惠誉解决方案公司资深油气分析师Emma Richards指出，由于资本支出预测往往是短期的，石油巨头2050年的潜在投资比例将会是怎样的，这很难衡量。
Richards告诉美国钻井网站：“净零目标可以提供一个指导，但就可再生能源与石油和天然气的支出而言，这意味着将取决于一系列因素，尤其是碳捕获技术的部署和碳抵消的使用。”
Richards补充道：“总的来说，这一比例目前非常低，但对于那些从大型石油公司向大型能源公司转型的大型企业来说，到2050年前，清洁能源可能会占据资本支出的最大份额。”
这位惠誉解决方案的分析师接着指出，美国石油巨头在其投资组合中保留的石油和天然气比重看来将高于欧洲同行。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
The Renewables vs Oil Spend of Majors
BP and Total have the biggest announced renewables targets to 2030 among the oil and gas majors, according to Rystad Energy, which highlights that the companies are aiming for 50 gigawatts (GW) of capacity.
This is more than double that of any other major during the same period, with Eni, Shell, Equinor, and Repsol all targeting under 20 GW of renewables capacity, Galp aiming for 10 GW and Chevron aiming for well under five GW, Rystad outlines.
If we take BP and Total’s 50 GW target by 2030 as their renewables investment benchmark, the companies will have to spend roughly $5 billion to $6 billion per year on new projects within renewables to reach their targets, according to Vegard Wiik Vollset, Rystad Energy’s vice president of renewable energy.
In comparison, Vollset highlighted that BP’s planned capital expenditure (CAPEX) on oil and gas projects to 2030 is $8 billion per year and Total’s planned CAPEX on oil and gas projects to 2030 is around $10 billion per year. Going by the figures above, on average, BP’s annual oil and gas spend would be around 37.5 percent to 25 percent higher than its annual renewables spend to 2030 and Total’s annual oil and gas spend would be around 50 percent to 40 percent higher than its annual renewables investment during the same period.
Looking further ahead to 2050, Vollset outlined a drastic shift away from fossil fuels. The Rystad Energy representative told Rigzone that total investment in renewable energy in 2050 is expected to be ten times that of oil and gas, even if the midstream and downstream part of oil and gas is included. Vollset highlighted that, in 2020, the world spent more on oil and gas projects than on renewable projects.
“With regards to what the oil majors will be doing by then [2050], I think it depends on the individual company, as you see drastically different approaches between them,” Vollset said.
“Whereas the European majors have already made strategic shifts into renewables, the U.S. majors have yet to make any material investments within renewables energy,” Vollset added.
Commenting on what the potential percentage breakdown of investment among the majors may look like to 2050, Emma Richards, a senior oil and gas analyst at Fitch Solutions, noted that it would be hard to gauge as CAPEX projections tend to be short run.
“Net zero ambitions can offer a guide, but what this means in terms of spending on renewables versus oil and gas will depend on a host of factors, not least the deployment of carbon capture technologies and the use of carbon offsets,” Richards told Rigzone.
“In general, the percentage share is currently extremely low but, for those majors transitioning from big oil to big energy, clean energies will likely take the lion’s share of CAPEX by 2050,” Richards added.
The Fitch Solutions analyst went on to note that U.S. majors look set to retain oil and gas as a larger share of their portfolios than their European counterparts.
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